ALP 3.0%
Incumbent MP
Darren Cheeseman, since 2018.
Geography
Western Victoria. South Barwon covers areas to the south of Geelong, including the southern suburbs of Geelong, Bellbrae, Moriac and Mount Duneed. A majority of the voters live in the City of Greater Geelong, and the electorate also covers eastern parts of Surf Coast Shire.
Redistribution
South Barwon shifted closer to Geelong, gaining part of Belmont from Geelong and losing Torquay and Bellbrae to Polwarth. These changes reduced the Labor margin from 4.6% to 3.0%.
History
South Barwon was created for the 1976 election. The seat was held by the Liberal Party from 1976 until 2002, but has alternated more regularly over the last two decades.
South Barwon was first won in 1976 by the Liberal Party’s Aurel Smith. He had previously won the seat of Bellarine when it was created in 1967 and held it until it was abolished in 1976. He held South Barwon until his retirement in 1982.
The Liberal Party’s Harley Dickinson won South Barwon in 1982. He held the seat until 1992. In 1992 he resigned from the Liberal Party to contest South Barwon as an independent, but lost the seat to the Liberal candidate, Alister Paterson.
Paterson was re-elected in 1996 and 1999, but in 2002 he lost to former Geelong mayor Michael Crutchfield. South Barwon’s demographics had changed as Geelong had grown, and become a marginal seat. Crutchfield was re-elected in 2006.
In 2010, Labor MP Michael Crutchfield was defeated by Liberal candidate Andrew Katos. Katos was re-elected in 2014.
Katos was defeated in 2018 by Labor candidate Darren Cheeseman, who had previously held the federal seat of Corangamite from 2007 until 2013.
- Andrew Katos (Liberal)
- Jeynelle Marie Dean (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
- Genevieve Frances Dawson-Scott (Greens)
- Leone Bates (Democratic Labour)
- Alan Barron (Family First)
- Naomi Adams (Animal Justice)
- Simone Tomlinson (Freedom Party)
- Darren Cheeseman (Labor)
Assessment
South Barwon is a key seat Labor will want to hold to maintain their majority.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Darren Cheeseman | Labor | 18,003 | 37.2 | +3.9 | 38.9 |
| Andrew Katos | Liberal | 18,180 | 37.6 | -8.6 | 38.6 |
| Marian Smedley | Greens | 4,164 | 8.6 | -3.7 | 8.4 |
| Damien Cole | Independent | 3,699 | 7.7 | +7.7 | 5.3 |
| Stephen Campbell | Democratic Labour | 1,461 | 3.0 | +1.9 | 3.1 |
| Peter Oseckas | Animal Justice | 1,474 | 3.0 | +1.1 | 3.0 |
| Robert Ripa | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 998 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.1 |
| David Ball | Socialists | 355 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.6 |
| Others | 1.6 | ||||
| Informal | 2,275 | 4.5 | +0.6 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Darren Cheeseman | Labor | 26,389 | 54.6 | +7.5 | 53.0 |
| Andrew Katos | Liberal | 21,945 | 45.4 | -7.5 | 47.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: Highton, Grovedale and the south.
The Labor Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53% in Highton to 59.7% in Grovedale.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Highton | 53.0 | 8,260 | 21.9 |
| Grovedale | 59.7 | 6,456 | 17.1 |
| South | 55.3 | 2,684 | 7.1 |
| Pre-poll | 51.6 | 15,430 | 41.0 |
| Other votes | 50.9 | 4,845 | 12.9 |
Election results in South Barwon at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
A re-run of the Cheeseman-Katos battle from last time. Pitching two uninspiring career politicians against each other. Are they really the best that Labor and Liberal can come up with? Cheeseman will be re-elected on the back of Green preferences. New Armstrong Creek residents are the relatively unknown factor, although at the federal election they favoured Labor and the Greens well-ahead the Liberals. A lack of sufficient transport infrastructure investment by the State government will no doubt be a key issue. Armstrong Creek is still waiting for its long-promised rail line, while the single east-west bus service just doesn’t cut it. The result is car-dependency (and its social and economic costs) and congested arterial roads.
This is the impact of demographic change. Used to be a reliable liberal seat but no more. When there is a change of government in the future .I think .this seat could well be retained by Labor. This becomes the future liberal party problem will not win Bendigo or Ballarat. Or Geelong seats. SO is very hard for them to get a majority
This seat only has a small coastal area left. It is likely a future redistribution would remove the remaining parts of Surf Coast LGA and become a purely Geelong Suburban seat. Although Highton is likely to remain more Liberal leaning than the State as a whole.
Interesting to read the article in The Age identifying South Barwon as a Labor seat at risk. I’m not sure what intel Labor have been getting, but I have no sense in the community of a mood for change to Liberal. A progressive community independent perhaps, but definitely not Liberal. Federally, Corangamite and Corio swung to Labor (2PP) right across the South Barwon region and State Labor have been plowing money into the electorate, through Barwon Heads Rd duplication, new schools and the planned rail duplication and Bellarine Link Rd. Unless the Liberals are about to come out and say they’ll fund and fast-track Armstrong Creek/Torquay rail and a massive overhaul of the bus network across Geelong’s south/Surf Coast, a weak area for Labor, then I can’t see them having any chance.
Supposedly this is a seat that the Victorian Farmer’s Federation will be campaigning in. This seems odd given it is almost entirely urban in nature, and increasingly so. Even those parts of the electorate than are more rural (Moriac, old Mt Duneed, Connewarre) are generally commuter areas of tree-change acreages and probably only account for about 1000 votes. There is very little of the electorate’s population engaged in actual farming. Yes it is marginal but I will be interested to see what issues the VFF think will appeal to voters in South Barwon.
Agree makes less sense that much of Mount Duneed etc is full of new housing and growing fast.
Thoughts on what might happen here? Gained back by Labor from the Liberals in 2018, and there’s been huge growth in this district around Waurn Ponds.
If federal results are to go on, then Labor should be able to hold here because Corangamite (which covers the same outer parts of Geelong) also swung quite heavily to Labor.
I expect Labor to hold here & possibly increase their margin here.
I agree with Bob, hold and increase. The new residents of the Armstrong Creek growth area seem to favour Labor, and to a lesser extent Greens. Katos was never a popular Liberal MP. Rail and road duplication and now Commonweath Games venues in the seat will work in Labor’s favour. The Liberals bus announcement was a missed opportunity with a lot of new, and welcomed, services for Bellarine and Polwarth but almost nothing for South Barwon which has several large estates without a single bus service.
South Barwon community forum held last night. Liberals’ Katos was a no show. Only Labor and Greens attended.
Labor field organiser I know is suggesting the outcome of this seat isn’t certain; which is quite remarkable but also consistent with Labor losing some of its support in the outer suburbs and the regions. Wouldn’t take much to flip this seat.
I’m not exactly a fan of the incumbent who comes across as bit of an airhead (his federal counterpart Libby Coker is by miles a better MP), though Katos is 🤮.
This area is not a typical ‘outer suburb’ that the Libs are gaining ground in – it’s an affluent area with lots of younger people moving in and this may be the last election cycle where the Libs can win it back without a fundamental shift in party direction, but a small statewide swing does flip this seat despite the local trend
Agree Maxim, South Barwon and the wider Geelong area are not really considered ‘outer suburban’ – they have a distinct regional identity separate from the principal capital city. In a sense, I see this area being similar to Newcastle/Port Stephens.
Labor will most likely hold here.
The margin of 3% is quite a buffer. I don’t expect many Labor seats with margins above 2% to fall to the Liberals.
South Barwon has attracted many Melburnians choosing the regional working-from-home situation. Highton and Belmont have attracted those looking for a city setting, Armstrong Creek is attracting those wanting to live on the Surf Coast but have been priced out. Federal results showed a high level of support for both Labor and Greens in the growth corridor. Labor hold and swing, on Green preferences. Katos was never a popular local MP, there’s no reason why the electorate would suddenly swing back towards him.
Surprise surprise. It looks like this seat had the biggest 2PP swing to Labor. It’s 6.7% according to the ABC at present.
It was funny that on Channel 9 election coverage Sarah Henderson said this was a potential pick up early on the night and that Darren Cheeseman was a lacklustre MP
I think South Barwon and localities in outer Geelong are now considered Labor leaning to some extent and have shifted leftward over the past decades. Pre-2000, this district and Corangamite federally were considered safe Liberal seats that Labor would only win at landslide elections. They shifted to swing type districts during the 2000-10 period and have now become somewhat safe for the ALP.
The leftward trend of outer Geelong and some parts of Surf Coast is probably due to the large number of ‘tree changers’ moving into this area from Melbourne and the change of demographics being transformed from a rural/agriculture base to having a more professional/service-based industry focus
Yoh An – It is just demographic change, the population growth of Geelong and surrounds has been phenomenal in the last 25 years. A lot of it is commuters into Melbourne. Ballarat is not dissimilar. I would like to know what proportion of the workforce in Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong works in the public sector – either locally or in Melbourne – and what the growth has been. My feeling is that it is very high.
Redistributed, would the growth in Geelong and its surroundings be comparable to parts of the Gold Coast? Most of the high growth locations are around Pimpama on the northern end.
Although Gold Coast lacks the public sector workforce that is featured heavily in the Melbourne satellite cities (Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo) which probably explains why it is still LNP leaning despite the population growth.
I get that there’s suburban sprawl and there’s a relatively young population and the WFH crowd and seachangers moved in. What was the on-the-ground campaign like? Was Mr Cheeseman a popular local member?
6.7% 2PP swing to Labor in South Barwon is huge. I’m guessing there’s more than just demographic factors.
@Yoh An. Brisbane is geographically smaller and less populated and housing is far cheaper and so very few would commute from the GC to Brisbane for work. This is despite the distance from Southport to Brisbane being the same as the distance from Geelong to Melbourne. Add to that, Melbourne’s connections with satellite cities are far superior.
Another factor was in 2018 there was a progressive independent running. Some of this vote returned to Labor, some to the Greens. This is particularly noticeable in Torquay, previously South Barwon, now Polwarth. The Liberals choice of candidate certainly didn’t help. Labor have been spending big in the electorate on roads and rail duplication, with the electorate also set to benefit from Commonwealth Games infrastructure.
Wanderwest, who was responsible for initiating the rail duplication to waurn ponds?
I read in some sources that ex Corangamite mp ane now senator Sarah Henderson argued it was the federal coalition that started the process and state Labor only reluctantly provided funding when pushed to do so.
This seat needs to be targeted by the Liberals. Pesutto should visit this seat several times throughout the campaign.
As someone very familiar with this seat, I don’t think it’ll go back to the Liberals. There’s not really any base for the Liberals here. The growth in the seat is with young families not inclined to vote Lib. They’d be better off targeting Bellarine which at least has an older demographic. But to be honest I think outside of landslide territory they’ll struggle to win either.
Eureka and Ripon on the other hand are exactly the type of seat they should be winning.
Agree with Drake on South Barwon. The issue with Ripon is that it does not swing much at all. I would actually say that Labor has not actually lost Ripon since 1999 it was a redistribution in 2014 that made it a Liberal seat. There is also some growth in tree changers in places like Clunes, Creswick etc.
Eureka is interesting, i expect Ballarat to be increasingly strong for Labor but i think there is some local issues why Labor is underperforming such dump of toxic soil and issues with the rail line being single track etc.
Agree drake and nimalan, south Barwon is now too urbanised and being an outer Geelong and surf Coast seat it is probably now like Wollongong or Shellharbour in nsw being solid Labor that the Liberals will never win, even in landslide years.
Target seats for the Liberals in the near future will be more like ripen (as above) or bass which are more traditional rural type districts that Labor only wins when they are riding high.
I don’t think the Liberals will ever win an election in Victoria again. The party is on the brink of collapse and a lot of people moving there don’t favor them at all not even fiscally. They are mostly ultra progressives that didn’t fit into their previous states and see Victoria as a safe haven for left-wing politics.
There are allegations against Darren Cheeseman of inappropriate behaviour which he has now resigned from the ALP. This government feels like to me personally that its showing its age, with every passing day I’m becoming less convinced that Labor will be returned with a committable majority in 2026.
comfortable not committable stupid autocorrect.
@ian i think there will be a labor govt again in 2026 but it could be pushed into minoriy with the greens unless something miraculous happens but i think the libs can win in 2030
@yoh an cheeseman does have somewhat of a personal vote and any allegations or subsequent court action could harm labor
@ John
The issue is that this area demographically is moving away from Labor while i still think they can win it is more left-leaning than Victoria as a whole just like Corangamite.
@nimalan corangamite will probably lose more of geelong to corio making it easier for libs to win it back
@ John
Suburban Geelong is not really the issue for the Libs in Corangamite, i would say it is places like Apollo Bay, Angelsea etc which are moving leftward. For Corangamite to become competitive again it will need to regain Colac and even Corangamite LGA. The best way for that to happen is there is an expansion of parliament and Wannon shrinks.
Agree Nimalan. Maybe Liberals could win a low ebb byelection after a “tough” budget but not seeing it happen in a general. I think Bendigo based Allan has the edge over Hawthorn based Pesutto in seats like this
South Barwon is an example of demographic change favouring Labor in country areas. Geelong overflow…. surf Coast Bendigo and Ballarat… apart from areas like Shepparton where Labor is not competitive…. the 2 seats in the La Trobe Valley seem to be the only exception to this at a state level. At a federal level.. Monash has a proliberal margin of 3% I think…
Up till 1999 Labor did win those areas… now libs hold no seats in Bendigo Ballarat and Geelong. This is repeated at the federal level.
@John the problem is though Jacinta Allan is quite progressive. She isn’t a rural MP at all. Bendigo is a city with over 100,000 people.