LIB 2.0%
Incumbent MP
Richard Riordan, since 2015.
Geography
Southwestern Victoria. Polwarth covers regional areas between Geelong and Warrnambool including the towns of Anglesea, Lorne, Lismore, Colac, Camperdown and Torquay. Polwarth covers the entirety of the Colac Otway Shire, and most of the Corangamite and Surf Coast shires.
Redistribution
Polwarth moved closer to Geelong, gaining Torquay from South Barwon and losing Terang to South-West Coast and Mortlake to Lowan. These changes reduced the Liberal margin from 5.4% to 2.0%.
History
Polwarth has existed as an electoral district in the Legislative Assembly since 1889. In that time it has never been held by the Labor Party. Except for the 1940s, when it was held by the Country Party, the Liberal Party and its predecessors have held the seat ever since the seat first elected party-aligned members in 1911.
Nationalist Party member James McDonald won Polwarth at a 1917 by-election. He served as a minister from 1924 to 1927, and held Polwarth until his death in 1933.
Allan McDonald, nephew of the former member, won the seat for the United Australia Party in 1933. He held the seat until 1940, when he stepped down to run for the federal seat of Corangamite. He held Corangamite until his death in 1953, serving as a prominent member of the conservative Opposition through the 1940s.
Edward Guye of the Country Party won Polwarth in 1940. He joined the Liberal Country Party in 1949, and served as a minister from 1949 to 1950. Guye held the seat until 1958, when he was succeeded by Thomas Darcy, also of the Liberal Country Party, which later was renamed the Liberal Party. Darcy served as a minister from 1964 to 1967, and then retired in 1970.
Darcy was succeeded in 1970 by Liberal candidate Cecil Burgin. He held Polwarth until 1985.
Polwarth was won in 1985 by Ian Smith. He had served as Member for Warrnambool from 1967 to 1983, serving as a minister in the Liberal state government from 1970 to 1982. He had resigned from Parliament following the defeat of the Liberal Party in 1982, but returned at the next election in Polwarth.
He returned as Minister for Finance from 1992 to 1995, and retired from Parliament in 1999.
The Liberal Party preselected Terry Mulder to run in Polwarth in 1999. He was challenged by retired footballer Paul Couch, who ran for the Nationals. He was considered to be a threat to the Liberal hold on Polwarth, but he failed to overtake the ALP, and his preferences helped Mulder easily win the seat.
Mulder was easily re-elected in 2002, and became a member of the shadow cabinet. He was considered to be a leadership contender prior to the 2006 state election.
Terry Mulder was re-elected again in 2006 and 2010. Mulder served as Minister for Public Transport and Roads from 2010 until 2014, and retired following the coalition government’s defeat in 2014.
The 2015 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Richard Riordan. Riordan was re-elected in 2018.
- Hilary McAllister (Greens)
- Denes C. Borsos (Independent)
- Hollie Hunter (Family First)
- Hutch Hussein (Labor)
- Elisha Atchison (Animal Justice)
- Joseph Vincent Remenyi (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
- Richard Riordan (Liberal)
Assessment
Polwarth is a marginal seat, and has become more marginal thanks to the redistribution.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Richard Riordan | Liberal | 20,629 | 51.1 | -4.3 | 46.2 |
| Douglas Johnston | Labor | 13,338 | 33.1 | +5.1 | 31.4 |
| Courtney Gardner | Greens | 3,949 | 9.8 | -1.2 | 10.4 |
| Damien Pitts | Animal Justice | 1,636 | 4.1 | +4.1 | 3.7 |
| Brendan Murphy | Socialists | 788 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1.6 |
| Others | 6.7 | ||||
| Informal | 2,122 | 5.0 | +1.1 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Richard Riordan | Liberal | 22,360 | 55.4 | -5.2 | 52.0 |
| Douglas Johnston | Labor | 17,999 | 44.6 | +5.2 | 48.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east, and west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (57.6%) and the west (65.9%), while Labor polled 61.4% in the east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 6.8% in the west to 14.5% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 14.5 | 38.6 | 7,305 | 17.2 |
| Central | 10.7 | 57.6 | 6,819 | 16.0 |
| West | 6.8 | 65.9 | 6,355 | 14.9 |
| Pre-poll | 9.1 | 52.1 | 16,338 | 38.4 |
| Other votes | 12.3 | 50.4 | 5,775 | 13.6 |
Election results in Polwarth at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
@ Adda, You are correct this seat seems to be increasing polarized. I dont see Labor improving in the areas that are traditional Western District Conservative. However, the Otways/Surf Coast should become progressive over time. The issue is apart from Torquay the progressive areas have natural barriers to experience population growth. Therefore, Labor needs to start winning areas like Lavers Hill, Gellibrand River with thumping 2PP margins to have a chance to win.
The swings to the Liberals at small, inland polling booths may have to do with the declining, aging population and younger, uni-educated people leaving.
There were huge swings to the Greens closer to Geelong and along the Great Ocean Road all the way to Lavers Hill.
I suspect this will be a labor target in 2026 to make up loses in the inner city to the greens and outer subarea to the liberals.
possibly however, i feel this seat is polarised and there maybe swings to Libs more inland and this may offset the growth of the progressive vote so while it maybe the best prospect will not be as easy.
You make a good point I personally think at this stage 2018 and 2022 were Labor’s high points, if anything it more likely their majority in both houses will shrink.
The majority of the growth in this seat will be Labor/Greens voters moving into Torquay. I don’t know if that will be enough to balance out an inevitable better result for the Libs in Victoria in 2026. However the four Geelong seats + Polwarth are already 5.21 quotas. Once this seat loses Corangamite council, and moves into Armstrong Creek/Mt Duneed or Barwon Heads/Ocean Grove it’ll become very competitive for Labor (or even the Greens).