ALP 16.0%
Incumbent MP
Steve Dimopoulos, since 2014.
Geography
Southern Melbourne. Oakleigh covers the suburbs of Carnegie, Clayton, Huntingdale, Murrumbeena, Notting Hill and Oakleigh and parts of Chadstone, Mount Waverley, Mulgrave, Oakleigh South and Ormond. Oakleigh covers northeastern parts of the City of Glen Eira and south-western parts of the City of Monash.
Redistribution
Oakleigh expanded south, taking in the remainder of Clayton and part of Oakleigh South from Clarinda, while losing the eastern edge of the seat to Mulgrave.
History
Oakleigh has existed since the 1927 election. The seat has alternated between the Labor Party and the Liberal Party. From 1982 until 2010, the seat was a bellwether electorate. The seat has usually been marginal.
The seat was first won in 1927 by the ALP’s Squire Reid. he held the seat until his defeat in 1932 by Vinton Smith, an unendorsed Liberal candidate. Smith held the seat until 1937, when Reid defeated him again. Reid held the seat until 1947.
Reid was defeated in 1947 by Liberal candidate John Lechte, who only held the seat for one term, losing in 1950 to the ALP’s Van Doube.
Doube held the seat until 1961, when he lost his seat. He later held the seat of Albert Park from 1970 to 1979.
Oakleigh’s longest serving MP was the Liberal Party’s Alan Scanlan, who held the seat from 1961 to 1979. He was defeated in 1979 by Race Mathews.
Mathews had been a federal Labor MP from 1972 to 1975, and served as a minister in the Cain state Labor government from 1982 to 1988.
Mathews was defeated in 1992 by the Liberal Party’s Denise McGill, then Mayor of Oakleigh. McGill held Oakleigh until her defeat in 1999. She currently serves as a Monash City councillor.
McGill was defeated in 1999 by Ann Barker, who had previously been the ALP Member for Bentleigh from 1988 to 1992.
Barker has won re-election in Oakleigh in 2002, 2006 and 2010.
Barker retired in 2014, and Labor’s Steve Dimopoulos won the seat. Dimopoulos was re-elected in 2018.
- Dominique Murphy (Independent)
- Steve Dimopoulos (Labor)
- Edward Sok (Family First)
- Jim Grivokostopoulos (Liberal)
- Parashos Kioupelis (Independent)
- Hsiang-Han Hsieh (Greens)
- Loraine Fabb (Animal Justice)
- Anthony Charles Jacobs (Freedom Party)
Assessment
Oakleigh is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Steve Dimopoulos | Labor | 19,202 | 53.6 | +7.8 | 53.3 |
| Andrew Edmonds | Liberal | 10,946 | 30.5 | -7.7 | 29.8 |
| Peter Morgan | Greens | 3,897 | 10.9 | -2.4 | 11.3 |
| Suzanne Parker | Animal Justice | 835 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 2.0 |
| Brandon Hoult | Sustainable Australia | 594 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 1.4 |
| Parashos Kioupelis | Independent | 373 | 1.0 | +0.3 | 1.7 |
| Others | 1.5 | ||||
| Informal | 1,720 | 4.6 | +0.0 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Steve Dimopoulos | Labor | 23,587 | 65.8 | +7.6 | 66.0 |
| Andrew Edmonds | Liberal | 12,268 | 34.2 | -7.6 | 34.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 65.7% in the west to 69.8% in the east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.7% in the east to 12.1% in the centre and west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 12.1 | 65.7 | 7,791 | 18.5 |
| Central | 12.1 | 68.7 | 6,691 | 15.9 |
| East | 9.7 | 69.8 | 5,865 | 13.9 |
| Pre-poll | 10.8 | 65.2 | 14,060 | 33.4 |
| Other votes | 12.0 | 63.1 | 7,721 | 18.3 |
Election results in Oakleigh at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
The Libs need to be competitive here if they are to form government in future. Was marginal in 2010. And was held by thr Libs during the Kennett years.
LAB retain with a safe margin as long as the Libs stay in the same state they are now. But one to watch if Pesutto is Liberal leader in 2026.
Daniel, the issue is that the Boundaries have changed significantly since the Kennet years. With little population growth in the seat it has had to expand. It includes very working class areas/industrial areas around Clayton. It is really only the West of seat which is more middle class. For this reason i dont see the Libs winning this seat again especially it gets pushed into Clayton South/Clarinda tec.
On the 2010 boundaries, Oakleigh extended as far west as the railway line, did not extend south of North Road and did not extend east of Clayton Road. It also excluded Huntingdale and parts of Oakleigh East south of the Princes Highway. Very different boundaries.
”Neil Mitchell of 3AW related on Tuesday that “leaked” Labor polling had the party “very edgy”, expecting to lose Hawthorn and Oakleigh to the Liberals”
This out of all the seats being close doesn’t make much sense. The demographics here are working Labor’s way and this is a very socially progressive area. Dan Andrew’s own seat of Mulgrave under the new boundaries being lost is more likely than here.
I agree that Labor will lose Hawthorn but Oakleigh？Did he mistake Oakleigh with some another seat?
At other source has confirmed with me that liberals are increasingly confident recently, and it is a bit of a surprise to them too
He didn’t mistake it for another seat, he’s reporting completely fictional data.
Kos Samaras gave a pretty clear explanation of why the “leak” is completely bogus if you want to read it.
(Spoiler: the really obvious reason being that Labor aren’t putting any particular effort in here – if their internal data said it was close they be campaigning hard).
I wonder if Labor are worried or not hopeful of some other seats, and are trying to get the Liberals to deflect resources to a no-hope chance?
The good old “secret leaked internal polling” is always thrown out there, but you think they’d include more believable seats.
Lol, maybe that was intention of including Hawthorn.
@Mark
Yes, that’s one of the possibilities. As anyone who’s watched Australian politics for more than five minutes knows, “leaked internal polling” is always “leaked” on purpose for some reason…
So it could be fake numbers “leaked” by the Libs to improve morale, or by Labor to gee up the horses, or some random member of the public just for a laugh. Maybe a test of Neil Mitchell’s gullibility?
The one time I saw someone get “leaked internal numbers” that might actually have been legit was for Bayswater in 2018, saying Labor were a shot to pick up a bunch of E Suburbs seats. And it turned out to be on the money. But that was one very specific tip about a seemingly random seat… Not sensational numbers about 6 target ones.
The “leaked polling” could’ve been fake news set up by anyone – Labor, Liberal, 3AW themselves, or some random neighbourhood Joe. The margin is 16% and there’s no high profile independent candidate.
I expect a bigger swing away from Dan Andrews in Mulgrave, even though the margin is almost the same, because of the competition and the supposed referendum on Dan.
Mulgrave, being a lot less affluent except for the part of Wheelers Hill that is for some reason still in the electorate, also has the sort of demographics that would be more affected by lockdowns and receptive to the anti-vax and freedom parties than Oakleigh coupled with the significant campaigning in Mulgrave by the anti-vax and freedom parties. It’s still highly unlikely Labor will lose Mulgrave let alone Oakleigh.
This seat is probably going to swing left, not right. Big Monash uni and renter influence. If Labor loses votes it will be to the Greens.
Not sure why there’s even talk here.
Even during the Kennett landslides, this was only marginally held by the Liberals, and redistributions have improved Labor’s margin since then. I don’t know if the Liberals would have even won it in 1992/1996 on these boundaries.
There may very well be some surprise outcomes and shock losses this election, but I don’t think this is it.