ALP 10.4%
Incumbent MP
Gary Maas, since 2018.
Geography
Narre Warren South covers central parts of the City of Casey, specifically the suburbs of Hampton Park, Lynbrook and Narre Warren South.
Redistribution
Narre Warren South lost the remainder of Berwick to the new seat of Berwick, and gained the remainder of Lynbrook and Cranbourne North from Cranbourne. This change increased the Labor margin from 6.9% to 10.4%.
History
Narre Warren South was created at the 2002 election. It was considered to be a marginal Liberal seat, but was won in 2002 by the ALP’s Dale Wilson, who gained a swing of about 14%.
Wilson lost a preselection battle to Judith Graley in 2006. Graley won the seat, only suffering a small swing against the ALP. Graley was re-elected in 2010 and 2014.
Judith Graley retired in 2018, and Labor candidate Gary Maas won the seat.
- Jacqueline Harvey (Family First)
- Christine Skrobo (Liberal Democrats)
- Tylere Baker-Pearce (Independent)
- Annette Samuel (Liberal)
- Gary Maas (Labor)
- Michael Gallagher (Animal Justice)
- Susanna Moore (Greens)
- Geoff Hansen (Freedom Party)
Assessment
Narre Warren South has a history of being a marginal seat, even if Labor has always held it, but the recent redistribution solidified their position. It will probably stay with Labor in 2022.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Gary Maas | Labor | 20,797 | 49.9 | +1.8 | 52.1 |
| Susan Serey | Liberal | 15,822 | 38.0 | -2.1 | 33.2 |
| Michael Butler | Greens | 2,714 | 6.5 | +0.4 | 5.8 |
| Gagandeep Singh | Transport Matters | 2,317 | 5.6 | +5.6 | 5.5 |
| Others | 3.4 | ||||
| Informal | 2,967 | 6.6 | +1.0 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Gary Maas | Labor | 23,690 | 56.9 | +1.4 | 60.4 |
| Susan Serey | Liberal | 17,948 | 43.1 | -1.4 | 39.6 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, north-west and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 60.2% in the east to 67.3% in the south-west.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 60.2 | 7,569 | 18.3 |
| South-West | 67.3 | 4,453 | 10.8 |
| North-West | 65.9 | 4,420 | 10.7 |
| Pre-poll | 59.3 | 16,032 | 38.7 |
| Other votes | 58.0 | 8,943 | 21.6 |
Election results in Narre Warren South at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Some large swings against Labor in booths here in the Federal election, some Hampton Park booths had almost a 20% drop in Labor primary votes. Interesting to see what happens in November
Hamish I suspect Liberals will do better in Narre Warren North than here, particularly with no incumbent there.
Liberal could do better than the federal results, as the anti-vax bogan vote would likely flow to the Vic Libs as they are more sympathetic to the anti-vax movement compared to federal Libs
Agree with Adam, Narre Warren North is more affluent than Narre Warren South. Narre Warren North has lost affluent Berwick which has increased the Labor majority but it has gained even more affluent Lysterfield South where there is no booth so the notional majority for Labor in Narre Warren North is inflated for Labor.
*Its was Narre Warren South that lost parts of Berwick not North.
Another seat that LNP will need to win if they want to get back into office, however unlike Narre Warren North which I could see falling here its a lot harder for LNP but impossible.
This seat hasn’t been marginal since the Kennett years when they had this. Not even in 2010 when the coalition won office it was around 6%. Napthine was unpopular so it wasn’t marginal in 2014 either. Fast forward to 2018 when there was an under-average swing here to Labor but still enough to ensure the Liberals don’t take this at this election.
Liberals dont need this. They should instead focus on Bendigo, Ballarat and Geelong. There path to power might just be by sweeping everything outside of Melbourne and it’s suburbs.
Bendigo, Ballarat and Geelong are areas the Libs do really poorly in, even more so than metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. Vic is different to Qld and WA in the sense that the Libs do really poorly in the major regional centres.
Agree Dan M, historically Bendigo and Ballarat were swing regions that the Coalition could win in a favourable environment but now they are more like Labor strongholds that the party holds quite comfortably. I think Geelong was always a natural Labor leaning area as only some parts (like South Barwon on the outer fringe) were considered marginal.
These mortgage belt seats should be won by the upcoming Liberal government in 2026. These will be close and will decide the election.
@Daniel T agreed this should definitely be a target in the same boat as Narre Warren North and Cranbourne… was held on a much smaller margin 5.5% in 2014 (which was a landslide victory for the Alp)