ALP 0.7%
Incumbent MP
Chris Brayne, since 2018.
Geography
Mornington Peninsula. Nepean covers the southernmost part of Mornington Peninsula, including Point Nepean.
Redistribution
Nepean contracted slightly, losing Balnarring to Hastings. This change reduced the Labor margin from 0.9% to 0.7%.
History
Nepean was created in 2002, replacing the abolished seat of Dromana, which had always been held by the Liberal Party since its creation in 1967.
Dromana was won in 1996 by Martin Dixon. He was re-elected in 1999. In 2002 he ran for Nepean, and held the seat until his retirement in 2018.
Labor candidate Chris Brayne won Nepean in 2018 after a large 8.5% swing.
- Jay Miller (Companions and Pets)
- Janny Dijkman (Family First)
- Pamela Engelander (Animal Justice)
- Charelle Ainslie (Independent)
- Sam Groth (Liberal)
- Esther Gleixner (Greens)
- Steve Anger (Independent)
- Hank Leine (Freedom Party)
- Elizabeth Woolcock (Independent)
- Chris Brayne (Labor)
- Cynthia Skruzny (Democratic Labour)
Assessment
Nepean is a very marginal seat, and is unlikely to stay in the Labor column if the election were close.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Russell Joseph | Liberal | 18,570 | 43.9 | -9.4 | 44.2 |
| Chris Brayne | Labor | 15,835 | 37.5 | +6.3 | 37.9 |
| Paul Saunders | Greens | 5,080 | 12.0 | +0.2 | 11.0 |
| Simon Mulvany | Independent | 1,776 | 4.2 | +4.2 | 4.5 |
| Rodger Gully | Independent | 996 | 2.4 | +2.4 | 2.5 |
| Informal | 2,353 | 5.3 | +0.3 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Chris Brayne | Labor | 21,512 | 50.9 | +8.5 | 50.7 |
| Russell Joseph | Liberal | 20,745 | 49.1 | -8.5 | 49.3 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, south and west.
The Labor Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.1% in the west to 58.4% in the east. The Liberal Party won the special vote categories.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.1% in the west to 17.6% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 11.8 | 58.4 | 7,796 | 19.9 |
| West | 11.1 | 51.1 | 5,426 | 13.8 |
| South | 17.6 | 53.6 | 2,906 | 7.4 |
| Pre-poll | 9.3 | 47.3 | 17,735 | 45.3 |
| Other votes | 11.7 | 48.1 | 5,329 | 13.6 |
Election results in Nepean at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
I forgot who said it but I’m reminded of a quote that after a big swing, it takes another election to confirm if the shift was one-time or a continuing trend. There definitely seems to be an element of “protest” vote in normally safe seats that is liable to revert if the party holding the seat puts a measure of attention to defending the seat next time.
It might be that people are satisfied at their area getting some focus and knowing their vote matters, or they might balk at the prospect of seriously electing the other side like mentioned.
Reminds me of Herbert in 2016/2019, Shock narrow Labor win, but next time it easily returns to the Liberal fold with a “reasonably safe” margin. But one thing for sure is Brayne was a much more competent MP than Cathy O’Toole who couldn’t even say the name of the project that would bring 1000’s of jobs to her region.
Brayne could easily run for the LC next time, or give another seat a crack. His career isn’t over, he is young, he has allot of potential.