NAT 24.0%
Incumbent MP
Peter Walsh, since 2014. Previously member for Swan Hill 2002-2014.
Geography
North-western Victoria. Murray Plains stretches along the Murray River from Echuca to Swan Hill. Murray Plains also covers Cohuna, Kerang, Kyabram and Rochester. Murray Plains covers the entirety of the Gannawarra council area and parts of the Campaspe, Greater Shepparton, Loddon and Swan Hill council areas.
History
Murray Plains was created in 2014, primarily replacing the seats of Rodney and Swan Hill.
Rodney had existed as a Legislative Assembly district from 1856 until 2014. The seat had been held continuously by the Country/National Party since its emergence in 1917. It had been held most recently by Paul Weller from 2006 until 2014. Weller ran unsuccessfully for the Legislative Council in 2014 after his seat was abolished.
Swan Hill had existed as a Legislative Assembly district from 1904 until 2014. It had been held by the Country/National Party for most of the period since 1917, apart from a few periods of the Liberal Party holding the seat.
Nationals candidate Peter Walsh won Swan Hill in 2002. He held that seat for twelve years, and in 2014 switched to the new seat of Murray Plains.
- Cameron MacPherson (Family First)
- Katia Bish (Freedom Party)
- Damien Hurrell (Labor)
- Glenys Leung (Animal Justice)
- Peter Walsh (Nationals)
- Andrea Otto (Independent)
- John Brownstein (Greens)
Assessment
Murray Plains is a very safe Nationals seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Walsh | Nationals | 24,234 | 60.3 | -2.9 |
| Peter Williams | Labor | 7,790 | 19.4 | -1.0 |
| Daniel Straub | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 6,438 | 16.0 | +16.0 |
| Ian Christoe | Greens | 1,706 | 4.2 | +0.2 |
| Informal | 2,297 | 5.4 | -0.1 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Walsh | Nationals | 29,703 | 74.0 | +1.6 |
| Peter Williams | Labor | 10,461 | 26.1 | -1.6 |
Booths have been divided into four areas: Echuca, Swan Hill, the centre and the east.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 65.9% in Echuca to 80.4% in the centre.
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers came a close third, with a primary vote ranging from 15% in the centre to 17.8% in the east.
| Voter group | SFF prim % | NAT 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 17.8 | 74.7 | 8,319 | 20.7 |
| Central | 15.0 | 80.4 | 6,573 | 16.4 |
| Swan Hill | 15.5 | 77.3 | 3,813 | 9.5 |
| Echuca | 17.4 | 65.9 | 3,753 | 9.3 |
| Pre-poll | 14.5 | 73.5 | 14,158 | 35.3 |
| Other votes | 19.0 | 67.3 | 3,544 | 8.8 |
Election results in Murray Plains at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, Labor and Shooters, Fishers & Farmers.
Interestingly this almost became a NAT v SFF contest in 2018, if Labor drops to 3rd and assuming Labor preferences go to SFF over the Nats, it would be a much closer margin but wouldn’t say an SFF gain is likely at all in 2022.
Walsh is surprisingly low-profile for someone in parliament for 20 years who has been leader or deputy the whole time
Will the member for Murray Plains be the official Opposition Leader after tonight?
Wonder if we will see a byelection in Murray Plains after Walsh was just knifed as Nats leader.
@The Sheriff well Barnaby Joyce was knifed as federal Nationals leader and he’s still the member for New England. Similarly, Paul Toole was knifed as NSW Nationals leader and he’s still the member for Bathurst. And the thing is none of them have any problems with the current leader, there was no drama as far as I know unlike in the Labor and Liberal Parties.
Also, Peter Walsh resigned, he wasn’t “knifed”. Anyway, in case there is a by-election, my prediction is Nationals hold with a swing to them.
@Nether Portal the official line in the media is that he ‘resigned’, but that is just a convenient glossing over of the internal fight between O’Brien and Kealy for the job. Walsh did not want O’Brien to takeover but O’Brien got the numbers and forced the issue.
if Walsh does leave Parliament I agree that the Nats will get a swing in this seat as despite being in Parliament since 2002, Walsh was very low profile and not in any way personable or charismatic.
@The Sheriff not to mention Labor won’t run in a by-election here.