Mornington – Victoria 2022

Daniel, I dont think it was Kate lardner who lost preselection here. Chris crewther beat incumbent mp David Morris for the nomination.

You may be thinking of Brighton as that is where an unsuccessful preselection challenger ran as an independent.

Yoh An is correct.

Daniel is confusing Mornington with Brighton, where Federico lost Lib preselection.

Mornington 2022 under OPV by using the same preference flows:

Lib: 17,910 + 1,366 = 19,276
Ind: 9,432 + 4,522 = 13,954

Lib pref: 3,416
Ind pref: 11,304
Pref flow: 76.79% Ind, 23.21% Lib
Pref total: 14,720

OPV pref flow: 9.28% Lib, 30.72% Ind, 60% exhausted
Unexhausted votes: 33,230

2CP: LIB 8.0% v IND

ian……. in calc opv result which will be rough anyway…. you must look at circs where preferences can be directed. lib to Nats and visa versa but there will be some leakage. Alp to green and visa a versa. Alp and green to teal.. there will be some tactical voting as well as they realise their candidate cannot win. Also Labor to ex sff indepenents (nsw). The exhaust rate in your calculation will be lower

Hi Mick, to get the most accurate result possible, I used the VEC preference distribution and translated that into the remaining 40%. I assumed a 60% exhaustion rate because that has been the case in NSW for a number of years now. Any leakage would be accounted for in the preference distribution. After the results in North Shore, Willoughby etc. are finalized in 2023, I can redo it accordingly and compare.
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2022-state-election-results/results-by-district/mornington-district-results/mornington-results-distribution

There is nothing wrong with your calcs. But I think there will.be a lower exhaustion rate than your calcs assume. For nsw 2023 will be better than 2019 for Labor

Ok, I did a lower 55% exhaustion rate:
OPV pref flow: 10.44% Lib, 34.56% Ind, 55% exhausted
Unexhausted votes: 33,966
2CP: LIB 7.3% (7.25) v IND

Following on from my comments in the Calwell thread about Fowler and the use of the HTV, this seat is the exact opposite, it has higher levels of education especially around Mount Eliza and very high level of English Proficiency with very little CALD communities while Fowler has the highest % of NESB residents in the nation. Here Kate Lardner, did not recommend any particular preferences and while she forced the Libs to preferences and nearly won the seat and there was actually a notional swing to the Libs versus Labor as many people who switched to voting Labor in 2018 had a centrist option and voted Teal and then preferenced Libs over Labor. In Mornington people are capable of casting a formal vote without a full HTV unlike in Fowler.

@Nimalan speaking of HTV cards and Fowler: has any party or candidate ever considered making how to vote cards in other languages? Government websites and pamphlets are already translated into 30 different languages. Even though 96% of Australians can speak fluent English (roughly 70% of Aussies speak English at home), government websites and pamphlets are translated because people often prefer reading stuff in their own languages and they may understand it better and it may be clearer for them than in English, especially when it comes to a new voting system with new parties and candidates.

I speak French since I learnt it in school, which although a global language isn’t in the top 10 most spoken first languages in Australia. But nevertheless, I had a go at translating a HTV card.

Translating “how-to-vote card” into French is hard. HTVs are unique to Australia, and like most other Western countries, France uses first-past-the-post voting. The AEC doesn’t have any officially translated material in French, but it does have Spanish and Italian material. The only document I could find that used the term “how-to-vote cards” (the term was used in the plural form) was only translated into a few languages: Italian was not one of them, but Spanish was. The Spanish translation is given as “tarjetas sobre cómo votar”, which literally translates to “cards about how to vote”. I couldn’t do what they did in the Spanish translation since in French it would be too long and clunky (the Spanish one is already kinda clunky and long), which would be “cartes à propos comment voter”. “Carte électorale” (“electoral card”; also known as a “carte d’électeur”, an “elector’s card”) is already a term used for a completely different thing in France (a document providing a voter’s enrolment in a French constituency), so I couldn’t do that. In French, I would go with either “carte de comment voter” (a very literal translation) or “carte de voter” (“voting card”). However, the latter could potentially be confused with “bulletin de vote” (which is the recognised French term for “ballot paper”).

As for the other parts, it’s a lot easier to translate. Political party names have already been given translated names (Labor Party = Parti travailliste, Liberal Party = Parti libéral, National Party = Parti national, Greens = Verts, One Nation = Une nation, United Australia Party = Parti unifié d’Australie, Katter’s Australian Party = Parti australien de Katter, independent = indépendant, teal independent = indépendant sarcelle, etc). People’s names are usually untranslated unless they are monarchs, religious figures or if they have a name in a language that uses a non-Latin script (for example, the French transliteration of the Cyrillic script is different to the English transliteration, hence why Vladimir Putin is called Vladimir Poutine in French, because Russian uses the Cyrillic alphabet not the Latin alphabet), but the French seem to use the same transliteration for Asian names (just not for Arabic, Cyrillic or Greek names).

The easier way would be for the election officials to have a range of laminated cards in a series of languages explaining the system. I am pretty sure they have translations on the AEC website. I wonder if any politics student has ever done a study on informal voting by number of canddates – % for 2, 3 then 4, 5 and so on.

A trend that seems to be prominent in Anglosphere voting culture has adopted the two party system.

1) America is obviously the most two party system (just simply Right Vs Left)
2) Australia is Right Vs Left like America but at least it has a sizable minor party that can make some significant changes
3) UK is also Right vs Left but minor parties can exist depending on the region
4) Canada may seem like it has a three party system but in practice it still is a Right Vs Left competition as the Left has two parts (centre-left and Left-Wing) and each party votes tend to have many tactical votes due to first past the post depending on the seat
5) NZ is the only one has adopted the European style multiparty system but it actual practice is Right (with a coalition) Vs Left (with a coalition)

@ NP
i am not sure to tbh in terms of translated HTV. In my electorate of Menzies, i have seen HTV cards where the back of it includes instructions in Chinese, Greek, Italian and Persian but not a full HTV card in another language. I am not sure if they have separate HTV Cards per language whether each one has to be individually verified by the AEC. Obviously the choice of additional language will vary depending on demographics. My local council offers materials in those languages i mentioned but not Vietnamese or Punjabi due to those languages being under represented. In an areas like the Northern Beaches i would be surprised if the local council actually offers services in another languages.

@Marh India is similar they have a left vs right de facto two-alliance-system. The main right-leaning alliance is the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is dominated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the main left-leaning alliance is the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), which is dominated by the Indian National Congress (INC). The BJP has been the ruling party in India since 2014 with a supermajority in both houses of the Parliament of India: the Lok Sabha (the lower house) and the Rajya Sabha (the upper house).

@Nimalan the Northern Beaches Council website has a page about the area’s multicultural community, but it directs those needing an interpreter to TIS National via a phone number and a link to the website.

Source: https://www.northernbeaches.nsw.gov.au/community/our-diverse-community/celebrating-cultural-diversity

@ Marh
NZ is more of a multiparty system purely due it having MMP. The UK and Canada have more regional parties/ separatist parties which is not the case in the US, Australia or NZ. Northern Ireland is an extreme case where there is no class divide in politics. In Canada. the Tories win by Saddam Hussain style margins in Alberta but Atlantic Canada virtually is a Liberal Party stronghold.
@ NP India also has more regionalism despite having a FPTP single member districts. This is due to the fact that its demographic make up varies dramatically from state to state. For example 2 states in India have a Christian Majority of over 87% while other parts of India like Bihar the Christian population is only 0.12%. In the state of Kerala there is actually a democratically elected Communist government!

My theory is that third parties in the English speaking world (probably except Ireland) won’t be as successful like those in Europe even if the election systems are the same is probably due to non-major parties lacks experience and winning over pragmatic voters. That is why Australia Greens to German Greens or Pauline Hanson with Marine Le Pen are not as comparable.

If New Zealand didn’t have MMP – ACT would not exist and NZ First would have folded years ago. Their voters would be voting National.

Although both NZ First and One Nation are conservative and nationalist, the difference is that NZ First is more economically left-wing, pragmatic (thanks from MMP) and at least more moderate around Maori issues (although NZ is more pro Indiginous than Australia anyway) compared to One Nation where they retain right-wing economics, populist fringe and anti-indiginous

I would compare NZ First with Katter’s Australian Party in Australia.

@Nether Portal, seems about right. As for ACT Party it seems be somewhere around Libertarian Party (formerly Lib Dems) and Senator James Paterson type of LNP. Strangely, ACT represents the wealthiest seat (Epsom) which seems the opposite of Australia as it would had probably a Teal

@np printing in multiple languages would be a huge cost increase and a waste of resources anyone who has the right to vote should be able to read it due to being required to pass an English language test to become a citizen and when they come even as refugees are required to undertake English language learning. I would attribut e the high informal vote to not understanding how votig works or not liking the democratic system.

@marh America has multiple small parties including greens and liberartelarians they simply cannot crack the 2 party system due to the way viti g is. They do not have preferential voting. If one candidate can’t crack 50% they go to runoff the next week in which the 2 highest candidates which will always be democrats and republicans. In the same of presidential election it’s whoever geTS the most votes in a state wins that state. So the multiple party system an hurt the other 2 if a particular independent can draw enough votes away from either candidate like Kennedy is apparently doing to biden.

@

@Marh the Liberals still have Mitchell which is one of the wealthiest seats in Sydney. It’s a blue-ribbon safe Liberal seat that is essentially teal-proof, covering the Hills District of northwestern Sydney, including the suburbs of Castle Hill, Baulkham Hills, Kellyville, Bella Vista, North Kellyville, Beaumont Hills, Norwest, South Maroota and most of Rouse Hill, Winston Hills and Glenhaven, amongst other suburbs. It’s an affluent seat, described as upper-middle-class.

This has gotten pretty far off topic… back on track please.

@Ben Raue yes my apologies.

Liberal hold.