Monbulk – Victoria 2022

With James Merlino retiring, this could be up for grabs

Labor might be a bit worried since this area didn’t really swing against the Libs in the federal election even with Tony Smith’s retirement and contains part of La Trobe which swung to the Libs. Add to that Merlino’s personal vote being gone and I can see this as one of the Lib’s target seats. That being said, I’m tipping Labor to retain this though on a reduced margin.

Interesting that Merlino’s retiring, he’s only 49 and the same age as Daniel Andrews. Surprising considering that Andrews probably won’t lead Labor to the 2026 election, thought he might’ve wanted a tilt at the tob job although the last couple of years might have understandably burnt him out.
@Dan M At the federal level the part Casey that overlaps with Monbulk seemed to still favour Labour with Mount Dandenong to South Belgrave been solid for Labor. Ferntree Gully in Aston also swung away from the Libs but that could also be to do with Alan Tudge and some of those Ferntree Gully booths are still better at the fed level than state for the Libs. At federal the Libs also received a swing to them in Cockatoo, Emerald and Gembrook, outperforming how they did at state level. Although i am comparing state and federal which can be different it can show the mood of an electorate, if some booths swung towards the Libs at federal then they probably will for state as well.

He has been an MP since 2002 so won’t be too surprised (although you can say this to Andrew’s as well). Alongside the Frankston Line suburbs, I think the Dandenongs seem to hold more independent views (a bit like SA, WA, and Tas) so many don’t vote for their party and distinguish between state and federal governments so I think those two areas will have more unpredictable results compared to the rest of the state.

The Libs might be in with a chance here if they endorse the right candidate. James Merlino has held this fairly comfortably except for 2010 but he has never built up a big margin. No doubt he has a personal vote that will be up for grabs.

Labor hold I don’t see this fall, maybe a swing away due to the loss of a long term member. I do expect the greens to improve here.

Some of the personal vote that Merlino has in Upwey, Tecoma, Belgrave could fall to the Greens, whereas the personal vote in Monbulk is more likely to fall to the Liberals.
Ferntree Gully could theoretically swing to Labor as they have lost long standing incumbent Nick Waekling – who is contesting Bayswater. Labor performed a lot better Federally in Ferntree Gully than state booths.

I think Labor will retain this.

The Greens almost came second place in Ferntree Gully booth in Aston in 2022 will be interesting to see if that occurs in the state election.

Do you mean Upper Ferntree Gully Bob? They were a very distant third in Ferntree Gully, although with a significantly higher than average vote. It won’t really make a difference in this seat overall anyway but will be interesting.

Adam,
Sorry I just saw your comment & yes I mean Upper Ferntree Gully.

Narre Warren East looks out of place & would fit better in Narre Warren North electorate.

The southern boundary of Monbulk is the southern boundary of Yarra Ranges Council. It’s the same southern boundary as Casey federal electorate. In many ways this area around Wellington Rd is the boundary between the eastern and south eastern suburbs.

Narre Warren East should really be called Lysterfield East.

I’d expect a decent swing against Labor here, but purely a result of losing the high-profile incumbent. I think Labor should be well placed to retain here, this area leans a lot more to the left than other outer Eastern electorates.

When I first learned of the Liberal candidate I had to do a double take, haha. I thought the disgraced member for Kiama had moved to Victoria. That’s an unfortunate name.

@ Bob/Adam, Narre Warren East is interesting case. i agree the suburb name can be misleading as it is not really connected to the heavily suburban and ethnically diverse Narre Warren itself especially around Fountain Gate and is in Yarra Ranges Shire. However, the Casey Foothills such as Narre Warren North and Harkaway is closely connected to the Dandenongs. Narre Warren East is interesting as it is one of the strongest booths for the Libs in greater Melbourne by contrast nearby Belgrave/Selby is as progressive as Inner Melbourne.

I was just polled in a seat poll for Monbulk. Felt like a Liberal poll. The company was Community Engagement Ltd. Anyone know who they would be polling for?

Surely the Liberals don’t think they can actually win here, although the retirement of Merlino will hurt Labor.

The Cardinia part swung quite a bit to the LNP in the federal election, its also worth mentioning that Monbulk has traditionally before James Merlino won it was a swing seat & has been close even while James Merlino has held it.

Agree Bob, Merlino only held on by a 1-2% margin in 2010 which was quite a good result for the Coalition. As an open seat it is probably going to be highly competitive and as this seat overlaps with some conservative leaning federal districts like Casey/Latrobe, I think it is more like a toss-up contest and not that favourable for Labor.

I had to look at the pictures and I recognised Daniela De Martino, she use to own an organic shop Croydon South to my knowledge she doesn’t live in the electorate or at very least she has just moved in.

I suspect Merlino doesn’t have a large personal vote – certainly a lot of people I know (I live in the electorate) feel that he’s always focussed on his parliamentary role and not his electorate. Any decent member would have been pushing for duplication of the trainline between Ferntree Gully and Belgrave, at least to Upper Gully; but he’s well known for never catching the train.

Watching him during lockdowns when Dan Andrews was recovering from a broken back, I think he realised that he actually didn’t want the top job.

I have lived in this electorate for 3 1/2 years now. What l have experienced is nothing but disgraceful miss management by the Labor government. When you need a hospital bed there is none, when you need an ambulance it’s a 6 hour wait, can’t get a specialist appointment or arrange surgery after 2 years. No regular power source & constant power outages, lockdown Seville & rural areas along with Metro, the money from 2021 storm damage??? 215 million over 2 budgets cut from rural roads, decimated Biosecurity funding, Pandemic legislation, vax mandates, the implementation of Agenda 21-2030 world economic forums Smart city, over spending, new farming legislation…. always voted Labor. NEVER AGAIN AS IM OVER THEIR BULL 💩 unfortunately the 2 party system has destroyed this country.

Agenda 21 and WEF. Straight out of the deranged conspiracy playbook. Get off facebook please.

I’m quite surprised that there isn’t a Angry Victorians/One Nation/UAP/Family First type candidate running in this seat, I suspect they’d do well.

I’d expect the candidates to drawl level on primary vote but Greens/AJP should put labor over the line. Might be close.

James, this is more of a Green/Teal area than a One Nation/right-wing minor party type area. Think lower Blue Mountains or Adelaide Hills rather than typical outer suburban.

Yes not in play.. maybe a small swing against Labor. Given Merlino retiring

Greens have completely dropped the ball in this area. It would be winnable of they ran a serious candidate and campaigned properly. The candidate has double digit followers on Facebook and doesn’t even have a real candidate bio.

Casey is their best federal opportunity in a Liberal held seat, and the Greenest part of that federal electorate is this state electorate. But they’re asleep at the wheel

This seat isn’t winnable for the Greens at all. If there was a seat just confined to Belgrave, Upwey, Tecoma, Selby, Kallista, The Patch, Sherbrooke, Ferny Creek, Sassafras, Olinda and Mt Dandenong tjey might stand a chance, but that population isn’t anywhere near big enough. The Greens have won seats in the Yarra Ranges Council in these areas.