NAT 0.4% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Ali Cupper, since 2018.
Geography
Northwestern Victoria. Mildura covers the town of Mildura itself as well as a much larger area, including parts of the New South Wales and South Australian borders. It also covers the towns of Hopetoun, Ouyen, Red Cliffs, Robinvale and Wycheproof. The seat covers the entirety of the Rural City of Mildura, the northern half of Yarriambiack Shire, most of Buloke Shire and western parts of the Rural City of Swan Hill (without including the town of Swan Hill itself).
Redistribution
Mildura expanded to the south-east, taking in the remainder of the Buloke council area including Donald and Charlton from Ripon. These changes flipped the seat from a slim independent margin to a slim Nationals margin.
History
Mildura has existed as an electoral district in the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 1927, and in that time it has been dominated by the Country/National Party, although there have been periods where that party has lost the seat, including the 18 years prior to the 2006 election.
The seat was first won in 1927 by Albert Allnutt. He served as a Country Party member from 1930 until 1945, when he was expelled, and shortly afterwards lost his seat.
He was succeeded by the ALP’s Louis Garlick, who held the seat for one term from 1945 to 1947. He was defeated in 1947 by the Country Party’s Nathaniel Barclay.
Barclay held the seat for two terms, losing in 1952 to the ALP’s Alan Lind. He won the seat back in 1955, and held it until his death in 1962.
Lind was succeeded by the Country Party’s Milton Whiting, who won the seat at a 1962 by-election and served in the seat until his retirement in 1988.
At the 1988 election, Liberal candidate Craig Bildstien managed to win the seat with Labor preferences, putting an end to the National Party’s local domination.
Bildstien was re-elected in 1992, but in 1996 he was defeated by independent Russell Savage.
Savage was re-elected with a large margin in 1999, following which he agreed to support a state Labor government in minority. He was again safely re-elected in 2002, but in 2006 he lost his seat to the Nationals’ Peter Crisp.
Peter Crisp was re-elected in 2010 and 2014.
- Ali Cupper (Independent)
- Sonia Brymer (Independent)
- Philippe John Brougham (Freedom Party)
- Felicity Sharpe (Democratic Labour)
- Paul Matheson (Liberal)
- Stella Zigouras (Labor)
- Jade Benham (Nationals)
- Angylina Zayn (Animal Justice)
- Brad Stratton (Family First)
- Glenn Milne (Independent)
- Katie Clements (Greens)
Assessment
Mildura is a very marginal seat. Cupper may strengthen her position as a first-term sitting MP but it would be premature to presume that result.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Crisp | Nationals | 14,654 | 39.4 | -6.7 | 37.5 |
| Ali Cupper | Independent | 12,180 | 32.7 | +11.5 | 31.2 |
| Tony Alessi | Labor | 6,404 | 17.2 | +5.6 | 17.4 |
| Steven John Timmis | Independent | 2,555 | 6.9 | +6.9 | 6.5 |
| Cathryn Milne | Greens | 1,414 | 3.8 | +2.0 | 3.8 |
| Others | 3.7 | ||||
| Informal | 1,996 | 5.1 | -2.0 |
2018 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Crisp | Nationals | 18,477 | 49.7 | -8.4 | 50.4 |
| Ali Cupper | Independent | 18,730 | 50.3 | +8.4 | 49.6 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Crisp | Nationals | 20,692 | 55.6 | -14.6 | 56.2 |
| Tony Alessi | Labor | 16,515 | 44.4 | +14.6 | 43.8 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: Mildura, the centre and the south. Mildura made up about two thirds of the election day vote. Independent candidate Ali Cupper won 57% of the two-candidate-preferred vote in Mildura and just 30-31% in the other areas (excluding areas added due to the redistribution).
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.1% in the centre to 21.2% in the south.
| Voter group | ALP prim % | IND 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mildura | 17.5 | 57.2 | 13,382 | 34.2 |
| South | 21.2 | 30.2 | 3,931 | 10.1 |
| Central | 13.1 | 30.9 | 2,842 | 7.3 |
| Pre-poll | 16.7 | 52.8 | 16,348 | 41.8 |
| Other votes | 20.5 | 39.6 | 2,591 | 6.6 |
Election results in Mildura at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes and primary votes for independent candidates, the Nationals and Labor.
Nationals will be going hard to win this back I assume, but I think most likely Independent retain – Cupper has increased her margin 3 elections in a row when she was ALP candidate in 2010, Independent in 2014 and won in 2018.
Despite how safe this area is for the Nationals on a federal level, this seat has rarely been too safe for the Nats on a state level since before 1996 – still genuine frustration about the rail line being cut…
Nats are deluded if they think they can win this.
How are the Nats “deluded”? Indi barely won last election, and Labor have fallen out of favour in regional Victoria.
The 2PP margin was less than a point in 2018, which was a high watermark for Labor (the “independent” Mildura MP is a former Labor MP). Nats definitely have a chance to gain here.
Not if Crispp is the candidate. No chance. The reason they lost it last time was because of him.
Crispp lost by less than a point in a high water mark year for Labor.
With a swing against the Andrews government, even just a slight one, he’d win.
No he wouldn’t. You’re a bit delusional to think so because Cupper IS NOT a Labor MP and is an independent. Independents usually increase their support after 1 term especially rural ones, the independents that lost their seats in 2010 and 2011 in NSW was because the swing was large towards to coalition. It is unlikely to happen in Victoria this year.
Crispp will easily lose if he is the candidate and I’d be happy to be proven wrong on this.
Jade Benham, recently Mayor of Swan Hill, is National Party candidate for Mildura. Swan Hill is in the electorate of Murray Plains.
@Mark you don’t account for the sophomore surge or the fact that Cupper hasn’t done anything controversial or unpopular. She will get a swing towards her.
Meanwhile what have the nats done? Their campaign prowess in Victoria isn’t great these days.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/mildura2022/comment-page-1#comment-773614
To be fair, part of the Rural City of Swan Hill LGA is in Mildura district.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/mildura2022/comment-page-1#comment-773624
No it isn’t.
Swan Hill and surrounding areas are solely within Murray Plains, alongside Echuca, Kyabram and not much else.
The northern half of Swan Hill Rural City (Robinvale, Manangatang, Wemen and Piangil) is in the district of Mildura. Swan Hill township and neighbouring towns are in Murray Plains.
Benham’s website says she lives in a Bannerton, a locality south of Robinvale – so in that area that is both Swan Hill Rural City and Mildura District. That said, I expect Cupper to be returned with an increased primary and Labor and Green preferences.
Another seat that LNP will need to win to get back into office.
There was an article in The Age yesterday about how the Nats are intending to run a big campaign to try and win this back, focusing on Cupper’s short lived coalition with the Reason Party and voting record.
I still think Cupper should hold here, but don’t think it’s as easy as people think.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberal-candidate-demoted-as-police-officer-over-lies-about-sex-with-colleague-20221025-p5bss0.html
Not that it was likely, but this shitshow all but rules the Lib out of contention
100% confirms this as an IND-NAT contest
I never expected the Liberals to win in the first place. I sometimes wonder why the Liberals would come up and contest in a rural seat where the Nationals are much stronger or used to hold.
This seat is definitely one of the LNP’s targets. The LNP is promising to cap flights from Melbourne to Mildura at $100. This smells like pork barrelling.
An interesting new development with seven-time mayor Glenn Milne joining the race. Milne was runner-up to the Nationals in 2010, beating Ali Cupper, who was then the Labor candidate. Milne is very anti-Dan, anti-green &c. Looks like he’ll be running on the right of the field, the Nats and Libs will comprise the centre, with Cupper on the left. He claims she’s not pushing Mildura’s causes hard enough. But her campaign is all facts and figures on how much more she’s got for Mildura in one term than Crisp did in three. This could go anywhere.
Who will Milne preference?
surely that crisp is gone the voters will head back to coalition. surely they realse Cupper is a Labor puppet posing as an independant?
Independents have been doing pretty well in recent elections so that’s not a good sign for the Coalition looking to retake this seat.
?
Gut feeling now tells me the Nats will marginally take this back. The tightening of the election also has affected all non-coalition candidates. Coalition is increasingly getting confident in holding all their seats I hear with maybe the exception of, Glen Waverley and Kew.
Very difficult to pick..think it
Will be independent retain. Look how the 2pp is only a 5% margin for nats.. Labor is not
That competive here. Is fundamentally safe anti Labor
Did not look a bookies odds yet
Another good Nat performance. Maybe having a Lib candidate helped? No Lab sponsored neg advertising against Nats unlike 2018 apparently
Littleproud might take false credit for the Nats performing well. But I don’t think he should because it is clear the rural areas were going to move away from the Government/And it’s crossbench allies, because some see the gov as too far left and out of touch. Coal is popular in the rural areas. And so are live exports. Labor and the Greens also BOTH went backwards in many of these rural seats.
It’s not an Anti-Dan factor. It’s a general Anri-Proggresive factor. And don’t expect Labor to go more conservative to be more competitive in the rural areas because doing so will cost them support in the city to the Greens. And if the Greens did so, the Victorian socialists might get far more attention then they should.
Don’t automatically assume a recovery for the independents or the left at the next election in the rural areas.
If Ali Cupper runs in Mallee at the next election she is wasting her time, but she probably will make top 2 or 3rd place at the very least.
Agree daniel – but doesn’t your 2nd last point contradict your main argument?
If rural areas are trending away from labor, which they are, then it will be harder for them or a left leaning independent to win these districts in future elections.
Apologies – I misread it, and your last points are in line with your main argument.
I don’t think this was such a bad result for Ali Cupper in comparison to results like in Shepparton. Mildura was already a notional NAT seat with a 0.4% margin, and Cupper kept the swing down to 0.9% 2CP swing (according to ABC) with the NATs winning with 51.2%.
Cupper had to contend with what appeared to be blatant pork barrelling promises by the Coalition including promising to cap airfare prices between Mildura and Melbourne at $100. I would have thought these types of promises are very hard for Independents to contend with, since they can’t really make such budgetary promises like the Coalition and Labor can.
Despite this, the swing was minimal. Cupper also managed to improve her primary vote to 33.9% (+2.9%) but clearly didn’t get the preference flows she got in 2018 which would have won it for her.
While she needed a higher primary vote, I think the poor performance of the ALP also hurt her chances through reduced preference flows. The ALP suffered an 11.1% swing against them and -7.9% on the notional 2PP vs NAT, and it appears the ALP candidate was only chosen in early November 2022. Comparatively, the 2018 ALP candidate was apparently chosen in September 2018 and apparently did a lot more campaigning and canvassing.
Although the ALP might assess that they have no chance in a seat like this, running a poor campaign (e.g. late preselection, less/limited canvassing and promises) might actually affect the chances of Independents. Therefore I think the ALP need to be more strategic in the campaigns they run, as the quality of their campaign probably has knock-on effects on how other candidates perform. Will probably have more to say on this in the Hawthorn thread.