Melton – Victoria 2022

@NP – Good map. A lot of people have said what to fix up but I also noticed Broadmeadows being won by the Greens?

NP with respect I don’t know if even half the seats you’ve suggested will fall, this is really quite fanciful stuff.

TBF, Nether Portal’s map appears to be a Liberal landslide rather than a narrow win.

Though in the N-W, I would have St Albans, Werribee or Sydenham before Essendon, and in the S-E I’d have them winning Mulgrave or Clarinda before Oakleigh.

Oh shit I just realised that. Thanks for spotting that @James.

@Scart should I make a map of a narrow/decent majority too?

Also, @Oguh, this isn’t a map of my predictions, this is just my map showing a potential path to power for the Coalition, though I did give a few extra seats to the Greens (Footscray, Northcote, Pascoe Vale and Preston which are all marginal Labor vs Greens contests, in addition to their current seats: Brunswick, Melbourne, Prahran and Richmond).

It’s still too early to predict every single seat. The election isn’t for two years. For all we know something crazy might happen like there could be a major corruption scandal or there might be a deeply unpopular policy supported by a specific party or a deeply unpopular law introduced by the government or opposition.

It’s still 2 years out, but I think the Vic ALP is feeling dated as a government – most of its star ministers all left in 2022 but like him or loathe him, Dan Andrews held the government together – the opposition couldn’t lay a finger on him, while I think people are tuning out from what Jacinta Allen’s government has to say even if they’re not really paying attention to the opposition. While I have doubts it’ll collapse in a landslide come 2026 and be defeated ala QLD 2012 or NSW 2011, not to mention a lot of political inertia against the Vic Libs, my prediction is the Coalition will get over the line in 2026 with a small majority – the it’s time factor will get them there.

Liberal likely gains (Lib >3%) from Labor – Bass, Bayswater, Bellarine, Eureka, Glen Waverley, Hastings, Pakenham, Ringwood (twice now Labor has had to find a new candidate so no personal vote), Ripon, South Barwon (Labor has to find a new candidate so no personal vote), Yan Yean (Labor 56 -> 45)
Green lean gains (Green 2-3%) from Labor – Northcote (Labor 45 -> 44)
Liberal lean gains (Lib 2-3%) from Labor – Frankston, Point Cook (Labor 44 -> 42 – slim majority for Coalition)
50/50 (<2% either side) – Ashwood, Box Hill, Melton, Mordialloc, Sunbury
Labor narrow holds (<2-3%) against Libs – Carrum, Monbulk, Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South
Labor narrow holds (<2-3%) against Greens – Footscray, Pascoe Vale, Preston

The red wall in the north and west of Melbourne will largely hold. Greens have a strong enough PV base (using 2022 numbers) to start with in Northcote, so I think they're a good chance to take that, whereas the others their PV is kind of low, and relies heavily on preferences, not to mention I think the Liberals will put them last on HTVs this time round. Some of the traditional marginal seats will stick with Labor due to embedded member personal votes, but assuming the incoming hypothetical Liberal government isn't too scandal ridden and unpopular in delivering, then they'd be ripe for the picking come 2030.

WL, Labor at 42 seats does not constitute a slim majority for the Coalition, because the Greens have four seats (five in your scenario), which means a hung parliament. The Coalition would be on 41 seats, so they’d have to win four of the five 50/50 contests to gain a majority.

While I would say the gains listed are all possible, they require some pretty impressive swings (Bellarine 11.5% to get to Liberal 3%, Point Cook 10.3% to get to Liberal 2%, Eureka 10.2% to get to Liberal 3%). And even without the personal votes of former Labor members, South Barwon and Ringwood would require very large swings (12.8% to get to Liberal 3%, 10 5% to get to Liberal 3%). Maybe all of those happen, but it requires a lot to go right for the Liberals between now and then.

@Wilson my bad, you’re right on the numbers – based on those I’m predicting as likely or lean gains, the Coalition goes from 28 to 41, so 4 short of majority (5 to account for the Speaker), they’d need to flip some more. And yeah, agree some (well actually many of them) have high Labor margins reaching close to 10% (perhaps some of those likely gains could be more lean gains), but I think the swing will be higher in regional/outer surburban compared to middle suburban, not to mention I think in many of those seats, the Liberal vote is depressed, and would attribute at least some of it caused by either the anti-Matthew Guy factor and or the pro Dan Andrews factor.

Definitely agree a lot can still happen between now and Nov 2026. Labor can still hold on (be it slim majority or minority with Greens assuming they accept that – they may very well not and concede even if they and the Greens had the numbers to form government) but again, they’re just looking tired and this is two years out.

@WL what about Greenvale, Niddrie and Sunbury?

If Labor concede despite there being a hung parliament with a Greens balance of power, it’ll simply result in another election. The Greens are not going to give confidence and supply to the Coalition. Would Labor really risk the ire of the electorate by making them vote again?

@NP Sunbury I put as a toss up – a lot of new housing estates that way. Greenvale and Niddrie I think will hold, but you could perhaps put them in Labor 2-3% – I think Ben Carroll’s personal vote would help keep it for Labor (if Niddrie does flip, the Libs will be winning a majority and more of if not all the 50/50 list, and perhaps even some of my predicted Labor narrow holds could go to the Libs).

Lockdown anger has subsided so some of the vote will return Labor’s way and would expect less minor parties/independents that preference Libs (and even if they do recontest I don’t expect they’ll attract the same amount of votes as in 2022), but the Lib vote will recover somewhat so would even out.

@wilson if abor go to another election they would lose because nobody likes having to d it twice. they wnt concede and they will sell their sould to the greens

i would put the coalition gaining 8 seats and the greens 3 but the coalition will not get the 17 seats required even if they could get more then 8. best they can do is peg labor into minroity govt then tear them apart in 2030