Kororoit – Victoria 2022

New Labor candidate is Luba Grigorovitch, of the Public Transport Union & ‘industrial Left’ who lost out to Jill Hennessy for Altona in 2008.

Herald Sun is reporting that Marlene Kairouz will trigger a by-election here. Potential by-election in Narre Warren North, Luke Donellan’s seat as well.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/byelection-set-to-be-triggered-in-marlene-kairouzs-seat-kororoit/news-story/2d2e53ef9033027fbdb6f0b888ef5693

Will be an interesting test of Dan Andrew’s popularity. Both this seat and Narre Warren North are seats that are reported to be hostile for Dan Andrews and the lockdowns.

There is a chance that a by-election would not happen due to only being months before the election. This happened in 2010 when a byelection was not used in Ivanhoe.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-09-14/speaker-decides-against-ivanhoe-by-election/2260122

That was 3 weeks before the election, not 6 months which would be the case now. Of course that depends how long the Speaker takes to issue the writ.

There has to be a by-election. Langdon resignation took effect on the 25th of August, over 3 months closer to the general election. The cut off for not issuing a by-election writ is for vacancies that occur on or after the 30th of June in the year of the expiry of the Assembly:

https://content.legislation.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-06/02-23aa063%20authorised.pdf

It would interesting to see the by-election here as it would give an idea how the state government is fairing plus the electorate is next door to Melton which is marginal so it would give an indication if labor is in trouble here.

There is a chance however that the anti-Andrews sentiment is rather exaggerated. I have found these people tend to be anti-vax and a lot of these people moved interstate after lockdowns so that might slightly weaken the threat. Most of these people are not traditional ALP voters given many on their social media supported the far-right parties’ pre-covid. I believe these groups are mainly casual workers of either bogan or Eastern European descent with a lack of educational attainment but these people are always active in the neighborhood (as noticed from the streets) unlike 9-5 workers (who would likely still vote Labor) who live in the neighborhood but are not active within their local community. The belive this anti-Andrews bloc is around 10% of the western suburbs

Its true Marh,
Most of the anti Dan comments are either from NSW, OLD or WA either way I think it would be interesting to see well the government is fairing.

It will be interesting. The ALP will get a swing against it at the by-election (as the government party generally does) plus the Anti-Dan swing, which could be huge, or could be a fizzer. Swing may transfer to the yellowshirts rather than Libs anyway.

Being so close before the election, Vic Labor and VicLibs will be happy to have a chance to test the waters and wargame for November…

Although I wouldn’t never read to much into a by-election, Dan seems to be still popular in the eastern Melbourne which what matter for the marginal electorates

The Liberals have labelled the outer Western suburbs as a target region so this by-election could present them an opportunity.

Based on current and/or historic margin, I would think Melton, Sunbury and Point Cook are more likely targets than this seat.

The Liberals have no chance here, even in a byelection. 26% is insurmountable.

Melton’s margin last time was deceptive – they had a weirdly broad spread across independents, making for a messy count.

As much as I dislike Daniel Andrews especially after his attack on free speech. This will be a Labor hold outside of Les Twentyman (Independent) or some other strong independent running. When the sitting member was first elected in 2008 there was an independent challenge that came 3rd place in the primaries but managed to beat the Liberals for the final count due to preferences from smaller parties.

Les Twentyman Nevertheless lost by 59-41 but it was much closer than the colossal margin it has been in more recent elections.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/kororoit2022/comment-page-1#comment-769541

Even with the unfocused rage spread across many candidates at the last election and the high informal vote, Melton still had a 2PP margin lower than Sunbury or Point Cook and much lower than Kororoit, even without the significant campaigning it is likely to get this year.

Liberals won’t win any by-election here, but it might still be interesting to see what sort of swing occurs.

I remember the Altona by-election where Labor won comfortably, but with a big swing against them. In hindsight, this could be seen as an early sign of the solid swing against Labor to come in the 2010 general election.

The Liberals are unlikely to regain the seats lost in 2018 in Eastern Melbourne. In fact even more seats could fall like Croydon, Glen Waverley, Caulfield, Brighton, Sandringham, Warrandyte and Bulleen. What the Libs can bank on is the swing against Labor in the outer suburban growth corridors. The looming Kororoit by-election will be a test for both Guy and Andrews since its the kind of demographic that swung to the Libs in the federal election. Of course, what could happen is a Dai Le style independent wins this on the back of a swing to the Libs and Lib preferences flowing. This could be something that is plausible since there are plenty of seats in the West side with large Indian, African and Vietnamese communities, none of which are particularly well represented in parliament.

I’d like to address some of the comments made here. I’m in the west and voted for Andrews in both 2014 and 2018. To suggest that anti-Dan people are either far-right anti-vax or from interstate is ridiculously short-sighted and tone-deaf. Many people in my community and surrounds have shifted their opinion of Dan throughout the lockdowns, health system failures and ongoing mandates that have been dropped in every other state. I’m disgusted by the blatant authoritarian actions that Dan has taken throughout the pandemic and his politicisation of the Victorian public service.

I plan on voting liberal purely as a protest vote against Dan. I believe many of the regular commentators on this site are greatly underestimating how polarising Dan is within the community, which historically leads to a close election result.

The results of the federal election should be taken as a warning, especially when analysing the booth-by-booth swings against Labor in the south-east, the north and the west, with some swings being greater than -20% in primary vote. Those swings were isolated to Victoria, suggesting a statistically significant anti-Dan backlash. That is only certain to be amplified when Dan is the subject of the election.

All I ask is that the obvious Dan supporters of this site take a step back and re-evaluate their their positions before posting such pompous comments.

Um Mark, You can keep your views but I disagree with some that you point out

1) I am not saying that all Anti-Dan are “far-right anti-vax or from interstate” but looking on social media, most are holding those radical views (some are bots in fact)
2) “blatant authoritarian actions that Dan has taken”, what about Gladys who had divided up Sydney during their hard lockdown? Using the logic “blatant authoritarian actions” and “politicization of the Victorian public service” could mean anything such as a new government policy (whether you like it or not) and most people would not buy into this hyperbole
3) “lockdowns, health system failures, and ongoing mandates” that were needed in the past to control covid, and didn’t every state government Libs or Lab have that policy prior to full opening up. Every State has a health crisis. Do you think Matthew Guy and not having any covid mandate would even help?
Btw did you plan to vote for Matthew Guy clearly because Vic Libs has an anti-covid mandate and pro “freedom” stance in contrast to Federal LNP?

Add one more thing, the media is making Dan a polarizing figure. Just simply look at Herald Sun.
Polarization does not necessarily mean the election would get close. Just look how polarizing the vaccine debate was yet 95%+ got vaccinated (of course the Nov election would almost certainly be closer)

This seat is interesting as the West of the Seat is actually quite aspirational (especially Caroline Springs) and has significantly higher incomes than the East ,which includes some of the most disadvantaged areas in Melbourne. The LGA border (Melton/Brimbank) is a major social divide but it does not seem to translate in to booth results any theories on this?

@Nimalan

I guess it’s similar to our discussion on Niddrie versus Sydenham.

This seem similar to Werribee/Hoppers Crossing compared to the rest of Wyndham especially Point Cook/Williams Landing

Agree, Nicholas and Marh, wondering if there any locals in the area who have alternative theories to myself. Point Cook/Williams Landing are much more aspirational than Werribee/Hoppers Crossing. I believe if these areas were in Sydney they would be hotly contested.

This is one of the electorates where I work with a range of community groups. Across this seat there were some big swings against Labor but at the same time there was a solid vote in some booths for the Socialists and a reasonable swing to the Greens right across the electorate. UAP went backwards in many booths and One Nation benefited from their first time running (hence a swing from 0) plus the donkey vote. This is a very multicultural electorate with significant populations of people who came to Australia as refugees or are children/grandchildren of refugees. The racist approach of both state and federal Liberals will see many of these never considering a vote for them.

Even the wealthier/middle suburbs in northern and western suburbs seem to just vote Labor because it’s just what people in the north and west do. Like Jagajaga is a very safe Labor seat despite being a demographic the Liberals should be able to win.

Education polarisation is a big thing driving voters towards the left, especially this federal election. Jagajaga’s normally a marginal but now has become safe because educated inner and middle ring suburbs have all swung hugely towards Labor.

I’d also like to register a complaint with the constant use of “aspirational” on this site as shorthand for “Liberal voting” or “right-leaning”. Being aspirational has nothing to do with the parties one votes for. To reverse this would be like saying that a suburb has more selfless voters and thus will lean towards the left.

@ Adda, i would not say “aspirational” is a short hand for Liberal voting nor was i making a partisan point. I use the term aspirational to describe a demographic that is in the grey zone between working and middle class. Some times the term skilled working class is used. They often working in blue collar (some times fluro collar jobs) but have above average incomes. These are not people who may not have university qualifications. They often send send their children to low fee non government schools and build large house on the urban fringe. These people often try and emulate the lifestyles of the middle class. I would not use aspirational to describe Keilor which is more reliably Liberal voting as it is more established and clearly more affluent. Just as i would not use the term McMansion to describe the housing on Monomeath Ave, Canterbury. Caroline Springs is a suburb which i would describe as Aspirational along with some suburbs in Outer Western Sydney such as Glenmore Park, West Hoxton, Middleton Grange, Narellan Vale etc these people no longer would feel an affinity with areas such Warrrick Farm, St Marys etc and may not feel there are of the same social class. The growth of the aspirational class along with the expansion of the middle class has been one the major demographic shifts in Australian society over recent decades along with the breakdown of the Catholic/Protestant divide in the 1960s and subsequent partisan realignment.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/the-hearts-minds-and-streets-that-must-be-won-20031207-gdww0j.html

@Adda

The point is that there is a correlation. And I say that as someone who is aspirational (I work two jobs by choice, I work for a startup by choice, I save and invest aggressively) but doesn’t vote Liberal. No one is suggesting that “aspirational” and “Liberal-voting” are synonymous.

“Aspirational” is a personality trait, not a demographic. I respect the point about that particular cohort of voters becoming more Liberal voting, but I don’t agree with use of a personality trait as demographic analysis. “New middle class” or “expanding middle class” all fit better. Otherwise, we might as well go the other way around and say there is a “selfless” class of people who are less concerned with material circumstances that are swinging Labor. I find that similarly absurd, for a group which would be better described as “settled” or “educated”.

@Nimalan I think the Labor vote is strong in the west of the seat because it follows the trend in North and West Melbourne in that even if as a working class area becomes more affluent it still keeps its Labor voting trend and the kids who grew up with working class Labor voting parents keep those voting patterns later in life even if they become more affluent.
I think one of the reasons this seat is so strong for Labor is also the line of employment. The amount of labourers in the electorate is 4% above the state average, machinery operators and drivers 6.4% above state average and the amount in the road freight transport industry is 1.3% above average. These would all be heavily unionised jobs. Even Caroline Springs which is the most well off seat in the electorate has above average amount of machinery operators and drivers by 2.8% and 1.5% above average for road freight transport industry.

@North East, looking at Lalor’s results is interesting, the poll booths on the election day especially in the new estates like Tarniet swung against Labor heavily yet the Seat Overall still slightly swung to Labor on TPP. Could it be due to many Unionised workers and 9-5 workers voting early?

@ North East, totally agreed about the line of employment even Caroline Springs has you correctly pointed while being more affluent and higher income does tend to have higher blue collar employment than average albeit higher paid blue collar employment. The only point i would make is that Caroline Springs was not really an example of a working class area becoming more affluent like Brunswick as it was a master planned community by Delfin in 1999 that developed in the early 2000s with young families. I do accept a lot of these families probably did grow up in the Western Suburbs before they bought they first home and started new families in Caroline Springs and may have remained Loyal to Labor. But the question arises should nt we see the same trend in Sydney around West Hoxton etc

@Marh Labor did get a swing to them on pre-poll (2.5%) and postal (4.9%) so it’s likely the usual blue-collar demographic of the electorate voted early due to working on Saturdays or having commitments such as sports with young kids. Although it still doesn’t seem like enough to cover the swing against them in Tarneit.

@Nimalan thanks for the information. Development in the outer suburbs is interesting and will make for a unique dynamic. Take suburbs like Greenvale for example, there was lots of flat space out the back so people built their big houses on big land but this flat and empty land also makes it enticing for developers to build estates on it so you have a large contrast not only in land owned by the people in Greenvale but also socio-economic differences. Lok at Bonds lane for example, massive mansions on the right and cramped houses on the left. Obviously it’s important to increase housing supply but would you not rather an extra 15-20 metres of backyard if you were to live out that far.
As for West Hoxton i’m not aware of its voting history but at last fed election it was narrowly Labor (51.8) with a swing to Libs and West Hoxton central was 54.9% for Libs and West Hoxton South was53.1% for Labor both with swings to Labor. As for why West Hoxton isn’t as strong for Labor, i’m not too familiar with the area but by looking it up it does seem to have some big houses and established streets that might more fit the Libs demographic. Also might be people moving from Sydney’s east and north whereas in Melbourne it’s unlikely for people to cross the river and move that far out west. I’m not sure if Sydney has people moving from the north and east to the west though, maybe someone with more knowledge of the area can have some insight.

@North East, I do agree that many more fiscally conservative professionals who used to live in the Eastern Suburbs are going into the Western Sydney Area (WSA) which would gradually reduce the ALP vote and improve the LNP possibly due to a lower cost of living in the west. Bear in mind the NSW government’s attempt to encourage more white-collar jobs in WSA such as the planning an aerotroplis nearby and some offices moving into Parramatta. This isn’t attempted heavily to the same degree in Melbourne possibly due to the geographic and urban layout of Melbourne

@Marh Thanks for the insight. I think you’re right about why this hasn’t happened in Melbourne and it’s due to the different layouts of the cities. Having your traditional voters move into areas that don’t vote for you would be an interesting strategy. Obviously i don’t think that’s what the NSW government had in mind with these plans but the effects of it in the short and long term may be interesting to look out for.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/scorned-labor-mp-ponders-resignation-that-would-force-unwanted-byelection-20220629-p5axp4.html

Different than this similar story a few months ago – apparently Marlene Kairouz could resign before midnight tonight to trigger a by-election. There is a cut-off for a byelection at midnight tonight, any resignations afterwards wouldn’t trigger a by-election. Interesting to see if this actually happens – but an incredible use of money to be voting for the same MP twice in less than a few months.

@Nimalan you would be correct. Growing up and living in Caroline springs, most families were from surrounding suburbs (Especially Deer Park, Sunshine way) and then moved to Caroline springs, so there would be that loyalty to labor that you were talking about.

I do think there will be a swing towards the Libs but not enough to win the seat obviously. The anti-dan movement will be one factor but I think its more that people within the west aren’t happy with the fact there isn’t really any improvements/promises etc in the west due to it being an pretty safe labor seat, so there has been movements to try make these seats Marginal or close to marginal to get these promises etc.

I have spent the last three days on a pre-poll in Kororoit. Without doubt an Australian Labor Party booth. Derrimut pre pollbooth very pleasant to work.
Only antii social behaviour came from Victorian Socialists who resembled the Anning crowd in surliness and anti social behaviour. Aggressive Angry and nasty but clearly Very well trained, tactic is to surround targeted voters with three approaching at once, middle one does talking and other two prevent the voter from escaping. VEC have used the tactic of warning all party workers rather than calling the police and having them arrested.
Apparantly this aggressive behaviour is occurring all over Metropolitan Melbourne.
All workers getting on other than Victorian Socialists. There behaviour are Derrimut was un Australian and the failure of VEC to take action against them is cowardly.

Agreed Andrew, I would be furious if I was approached like that at a polling place. Electoral commissions and the police need to crack down on this kind of behaviour.

Victorian Socialists are barely disguised communists, and we all know that communism is the most violent and murderous ideology in history. It’s a shame that Menzies wasn’t able to ban it in 1951.

@Entrepreneur that statement is the most ill informed statement I’ve read since reading Atlas Shrugged. If you don’t know the difference between Communism and Socialism what are you doing on a political forum?

Agree with Andrew about the Victorian Socialists, I voted yesterday at brookside and when I was in line I found every party were respectful when handing out the how to vote cards etc (wouldn’t approach, just would ask as walking by) however the Victorian Socialist girls (which I believed included Belle herself) stood themselves right towards the front near the doors to get in, and approached target audiences and try and would stand next to them and try start a convo, even when trying to decline they made you feel uncomfortable.

Did the exact same thing at the federal election as well.