LIB 4.7%
Incumbent MP
Tim Smith, since 2014.
Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Kew covers suburbs on the eastern shore of the Yarra River, including Balwyn, Bellevue, Deepdene, Kew and parts of Balwyn North and Canterbury. Kew covers northern parts of Boroondara local government area.
Redistribution
Kew expanded to the east, taking in the remainder of Balwyn from Box Hill.
Kew has existed as a state electorate since the 1927 election, and it has always been held by the Liberal Party and its conservative predecessors.
In 1927, the seat was first won by independent candidate Wilfrid Kent Hughes. Kent Hughes, a former Olympic hurdler, had sought Nationalist preselection unsuccessfully before winning the seat as an independent, after which he rejoined the Nationalists.
Kent Hughes joined the new United Australia Party in 1931, and became the party’s deputy leader in the Victorian parliament in 1935. He served in that role until 1939, when he enlisted in the Army to fight in the Second World War. He was captured by the Japanese in Singapore in 1942 and spent the remainder of the war as a prisoner of war, all while continuing to serve as Member for Kew.
Kent Hughes served as Deputy Premier in the Liberal government from 1947 to 1949, when he resigned to take the federal electorate of Chisholm. He served as a minister in the Menzies federal government and as chairman of the Melbourne Olympic organising committee. He was dropped from the ministry following the 1956 Olympics, and he served as a backbencher until his death in 1970.
The 1949 Kew by-election was won by Arthur Rylah. The ALP gained power in Victoria in 1952, and in 1953 Rylah was elected as the party’s deputy leader. He became Deputy Premier when the Liberals won power in 1955, and served in that role until his retirement from Parliament in 1971.
The 1971 Kew by-election was won by the Liberal Party’s Rupert Hamer. He had previously served as an MLC for East Yarra province since 1958. A year later, Liberal Premier Henry Bolte retired, and Hamer became Premier of Victoria. Hamer served as Premier until 1981, when undermining by the conservative wing of the Liberal Party saw him resign as Premier, and then as Member for Kew. The Liberals lost the state election the next year.
The 1981 Kew by-election was won by Prue Sibree. She held the seat for the Liberal Party until her retirement in 1988. The 1988 Kew by-election was won by Jan Wade. She held the seat until her retirement in 1999.
Kew was won in 1999 by Andrew McIntosh. He was the first Member for Kew to gain the seat at a general election rather than a by-election since Kent Hughes had first won the seat in 1927.
McIntosh won re-elected in 2002, 2006 and 2010. He served as a minister in the Coalition government from 2010 until April 2013, when he resigned his portfolios after leaking confidential information to a journalist.
McIntosh retired at the 2014 election, and Liberal candidate Tim Smith was elected. Smith was re-elected in 2018. Smith joined the Liberal frontbench after the 2018 election but was forced to step down in late 2021 after a serious drink driving incident.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Tim Smith is not running for re-election.
- Sophie Torney (Independent)
- Kym Sullivan (Independent)
- Finlay Davis (Independent)
- Lucy Skelton (Labor)
- Ann Seeley (Family First)
- Jess Wilson (Liberal)
- Jackie Carter (Greens)
- Ruby Schofield (Animal Justice)
Assessment
Kew is a heartland Liberal seat. The margin was slashed in 2018 but it’s still unlikely the seat will flip, even with a new Liberal candidate.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tim Smith | Liberal | 19,098 | 49.3 | -7.9 | 49.4 |
| Marg D’Arcy | Labor | 11,960 | 30.8 | +4.4 | 31.4 |
| Alex Marks | Greens | 5,961 | 15.4 | -0.9 | 15.2 |
| Bronwyn Gardiner | Animal Justice | 915 | 2.4 | +2.4 | 2.1 |
| Paul Scaturchio | Sustainable Australia | 835 | 2.2 | +2.2 | 1.9 |
| Informal | 1,655 | 4.1 | 0.0 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tim Smith | Liberal | 21,231 | 54.8 | -5.9 | 54.7 |
| Marg D’Arcy | Labor | 17,528 | 45.2 | +5.9 | 45.3 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (53.9%) and the east (54.2%) while Labor won 52.5% in the west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.1% in the east to 18.8% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 13.1 | 54.2 | 10,882 | 24.5 |
| Central | 14.1 | 53.9 | 5,608 | 12.6 |
| West | 18.8 | 47.5 | 5,321 | 12.0 |
| Pre-poll | 15.8 | 57.2 | 14,836 | 33.4 |
| Other votes | 15.4 | 56.7 | 7,822 | 17.6 |
Election results in Kew at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
As much as I currently distaste the Liberal party, I would rather have them than a teal win for a simple reason. Teals say they are independents but why do they brand themselves “Teals” if they are truly independent? Are they simply just Liberals for forests or are they simply just trying to win seats Labor can’t and act as a rubber stamp for the progressive agenda?
Independents, can’t deliver a budget, they don’t sit in cabinet. All they can do is get on their knees to the government for the day and beg for certain commitments which aren’t guaranteed to be delivered, and the major parties are good at doing that because they want to weaken the independents by making the electorate think that it’s the crossbenchers fault for something not being done that they promised.
The teals are clearly a 3-way, not Independents. If you want “Real” independents look at MP’s like Helen Haines or Bob Katter (even though he has his own party now) I would also put Cathy McGowan as well on this list.
And the teals are challenging Liberal candidates that the Liberals desperately need for revival like John Pesutto, and he is outstanding. He is the kind of Liberal I would be proud to vote for.
I predict voters will see into this Teal movement sooner rather than later and I think the Liberals can hold this seat, but if not, definitely 2026 under a reformed Liberal party. And they might take Goldstein off the Teals at the next election, I’m less convinced about Kooyong unless Frydenburg runs again.
I hope the crossbench is proud of themselves, 3 Gay MP’s who were moderates lost their seats at the federal election. They were needed in the party room for renewal and now they are gone and you still have Right-wing MP’s such as my MP and Dutton.
It’s a bold prediction that the Libs will reform. Everywhere else they’ve doubled-down on the conservative push – the Teals knocking out some Lib moderates just accelerated a shift in the average Lib MP to the right that was already happening.
The teal candidate (Sophie Torney) has a very strong chance and will very likely flip this seat.
Some reasons why:
1. Demographic changes and teal-isation of inner-city Liberal heartland.
2. Tim Smith.
3. It’s an open seat and so the major parties’ candidates and Sophie Torney all have to establish their brands.
4. The Liberals can’t turn this into a referendum about Dan Andrews.
5. The Liberal brand isn’t very hot right now. Matthew Guy isn’t particularly popular.
6. I wrote in the Box Hill and Glen Waverley threads that anti-lockdown and anti-vax sentiments are overhyped and overexagerated where there’s a large Chinese community. I’m sure most Chinese migrants have heard from their friends and relatives in China about harsh lockdowns, mass daily testing and surveillance and quarantine centres even in November 2022. They may see Victoria’s lockdowns as “nothing”.
I don’t think her win will be as strong or emphatic as Monique Ryan’s at the federal election. It would probably go down to the wire. Besides, the Hawthorn part was more teal than the Kew part.
Most likely lib retain
Today Dan Andrews has over taken Sir Rupert Hamer, who represented this seat as the second longest continuously serving premier. Two days ago he also overtook Bob Hawke’s time in office. Sir Rupert hamer was the last Liberal leader to leave politics at a time of his choosing and win a third term. During that time no Labor government had ever been reelected. All 3 labor leaders since who led their parties to government since then have won a third term. When Hamer was premier Labor had been in government around 10% of time since federation by the time of the 2026 election Labor would have been in Government for around 75% of the time since 1982. Victorian Labor was once known for ideological purity rather than electoral success it seems know the Victorian Liberals are like that more interested in pandering to a diminishing base rather than winning government.