ALP 0.6%
Incumbent MP
John Kennedy, since 2018.
Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Hawthorn covers central parts of the Boroondara local government area, and specifically the suburbs of Hartwell and Hawthorn and parts of the suburbs of Burwood, Camberwell, Canterbury and Surrey Hills.
Redistribution
Hawthorn shifted to the east, taking in part of Surrey Hills from Burwood and Box Hill, and losing the remainder of Glen Iris to Ashwood. These changes slightly increased the Labor margin from 0.4% to 0.6%.
History
Hawthorn has existed as an electoral district continuously since 1889. In that time, it has been dominated by conservative MPs, and had only been won by the ALP at one election prior to the Labor win in 2018.
The seat was won in 1902 by George Swinburne. He ended up serving as a member of the Commonwealth Liberal Party before his retirement in 1913.
He was succeeded by William Murray McPherson. McPherson served as Treasurer in the Nationalist state government from 1917 to 1923, and as Premier from 1928 to 1929. McPherson resigned from Parliament in 1930.
He was succeeded by Nationalist candidate John Gray at the 1930 by-election. Gray served as Member for Hawthorn until his death in 1939.
His seat was won at the 1939 by-election by the United Australia Party’s Leslie Tyack. He lost the seat at the 1940 state election to independent candidate Leslie Hollins, who had links to the Social Credit movement.
Hollins held Hawthorn for two terms, losing in 1945 to the Liberal Party’s Frederick Edmunds. He also held the seat for two terms, until in 1950 the Liberal Party replaced him with his predecessor Leslie Tyack.
Tyack was defeated in 1952 by the ALP’s Charles Murphy, the only ALP member to ever win Hawthorn. He left the ALP in the split of 1955, and lost his seat at that year’s election to the Liberal Party’s James Manson.
After one term, Manson moved to the new seat of Ringwood in 1958, and was replaced in Hawthorn by Peter Garrisson. He was re-elected in 1961, but in 1963 he resigned from the Liberal Party, and lost his seat as an independent in 1964.
Walter Jona was elected as Liberal Member for Hawthorn in 1964. He served as a minister in the Liberal government from 1976 to 1982, and retired in 1985.
Hawthorn was won in 1985 by the Liberal Party’s Phillip Gude, who had previously held the seat of Geelong East for one term from 1976 to his defeat in 1979. He served as a minister in the Kennett government from 1992 until his retirement in 1999.
Since 1999, Hawthorn has been held by Ted Baillieu. Baillieu won re-election in 2002, 2006 and 2010.
Ted Baillieu was elected Liberal leader shortly before the 2006 election, and led the Coalition to defeat in 2006 and victory in 2010.
Baillieu served as Premier from 2010 until March 2013, when he resigned as Premier and Liberal leader under pressure from his party’s MPs. He retired at the 2014 election, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate John Pesutto.
Pesutto held Hawthorn for one term, losing the seat to Labor’s John Kennedy with a big swing in 2018.
- Faith Fuhrer (Animal Justice)
- John Kennedy (Labor)
- Ken Triantafillis (Family First)
- Richard Peppard (Liberal Democrats)
- Melissa Lowe (Independent)
- Nick Savage (Greens)
- John Pesutto (Liberal)
- Stratton Bell (Democratic Labour)
Assessment
Hawthorn has traditionally been considered a safe Liberal seat, but a cumulative swing of 17.1% to Labor since Ted Baillieu’s retirement in 2014 saw them grab the seat. It wouldn’t take much of that vote swinging back to restore the Liberal hold here, but if the Liberal Party doesn’t receive much of a bounce back Labor could hold the seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Pesutto | Liberal | 17,231 | 43.9 | -10.6 | 43.9 |
| John Kennedy | Labor | 12,646 | 32.2 | +8.0 | 32.9 |
| Nicholas Bieber | Greens | 7,167 | 18.3 | -3.1 | 17.7 |
| Sophie Paterson | Sustainable Australia | 960 | 2.4 | +2.5 | 2.4 |
| Catherine Wright | Animal Justice | 885 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 2.2 |
| Richard Grummet | Independent | 367 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.8 |
| Informal | 1,462 | 3.6 | -0.2 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Kennedy | Labor | 19,793 | 50.4 | +9.0 | 50.6 |
| John Pesutto | Liberal | 19,463 | 49.6 | -9.0 | 49.4 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The Labor Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, with just over 52% in the centre and east and 57% in the west. The Liberal Party narrowly won the pre-poll vote and won the remaining vote more convincingly.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.3% in the east to 21.5% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 17.0 | 52.1 | 9,807 | 22.7 |
| East | 12.3 | 52.2 | 6,135 | 14.2 |
| West | 21.5 | 56.9 | 5,796 | 13.4 |
| Pre-poll | 18.1 | 46.5 | 13,503 | 31.2 |
| Other votes | 19.3 | 49.6 | 8,018 | 18.5 |
Election results in Hawthorn at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
With retrospect, Pesutto should’ve cut his losses and stepped after he lost the defamation case, then let another moderate (like Wilson or Groth) take over. Now they’re risking Battin.
I wouldn’t rule out Battin possibly winning in 26, especially if he becomes more centrist, Victoria’s finances are just that dire, but as it stands, he’s likely to blow it if he does become leader.
I think Groth was foolish to resign which undermined Pesutto so the moderates may see him as a traitor, Battin was smart enough to keep his cards close to his chest. If Victoria was in a better financial then Battin would have no chance as Labor could pork-barrell some electorates which is now harder until the budget returns to surplus. If Labor was able to finance Airport Rail then i would take out Niddrie/ Sunbury out of the in-play column both seats are slightly Labor leaning. I also would not rule out Battin facing a backlash from the right flank if he tries to move to the centre Matt Guy received it for 2030 Emissions target, proposing a dedicated LGBT service etc especially after the federal election.
If Labor are still in government federally, 2026 will be a contest regardless of leader.
If Dutton wins in some form next year (majority of minority), Liberals have no hope in Victoria 2026 and a conservative leader in Dutton’s hardline ex-cop mould will probably only oversee another near-landslide.
Sam groth and jess wilson leadership team?
As a moderate dont mind whos leader as long as deeming isnt readmitted
Media reporting says that Brad Battin has the numbers. I’m surprised they called a spill for sometime right between Christmas Day and New Year. ABC says that James Newbury, Bridget Vallence, Richard Riordan and Sam Groth all signed for a leadership spill.
I don’t think Groth or Wilson are ready for the leader’s job given they’re first-term MPs.
Considering how hard Pesutto, Southwick and Crozier seemed to be campaigning for Prahran which was always a long shot anyway, and if all 3 (especially Pesutto and Southwick) lose their leadership positions by New Years, hard to see them being motivated to keep putting in any effort and the leadership change alone should see the Greens retain Prahran on double digits.
Question is, will Pesutto even stay on at all? And will Southwick re-contest Caulfield in 2026?
@Nimalan – I do think there is an opportunity for the Liberals to really push the idea that Labor priorities are the wrong way round regarding infrastructure (regardless of the merits of such an argument) and push for Airport Rail over SRL. SRL East is likely too late to cancel (and I think it would be worse if they were to even try) but the Coalition likely will cancel the rest of SRL and perhaps rebrand SRL East as say the “University Line”, which connects Monash and Deakin – although maybe retool the eastern half of SRL North as a proposed extension (going to Reservoir to include Bundoora), even if the rest is scrapped.
While I doubt a Battin leadership will try for some of the things Matthew Guy did, I think there’s quite a possibility he ends up following the same path as David Crisafuli in QLD, though he would be well advised to steer clear of abortion issues and not be led down that same path by some of his conservative faction allies.
@Trent – I think the Vic Libs do have some chance even if Dutton is PM by May – there’s still 1.5 years to go till the next Victorian election. It’s definitely on the slimmer side – as noted by many, the Victorian electoral map is not kind at all to the Liberals – the numbers are really stacked against them. But I wouldn’t say the chance is zero either.
I think the 1.5 years until the election favours Labor more than the Libs.
There will still be a big debt but the budget is forecast to at least be in surplus. Cost of living pressures which are hurting Labor due to being in power at both state & fed level will likely ease as interest rates hopefully reduce. A couple of major projects like Metro Tunnel and West Gate Tunnel will be complete so people will be finally seeing the benefits instead of what feels like endless disruption. The next two budgets will probably be a little more election-friendly than the last two.
It’s hard to see the Labor vote dipping much further than where they are currently polling here, or the Lib vote increasing much more (if at all), it feels like it’s hit floor/ceiling level, and even on current polling it likely wouldn’t translate to a Liberal win due to the electoral map.
But a more conservative leader, and especially if the Liberals are in government federally, would be unlikely to improve on their current position.
The outcome of the spill will steer polling and the direction of the party.
As I said before I think if Brad Battin loses he needs to resign as the member for Berwick.
Comparisons to Dominic Perrottet and David Crisafulli don’t necessarily work here. While they have previously had some socially conservative attributes (particularly Perrottet) they are now more middle ground. Perrottet led a moderate party in the NSW Liberals like Mark Speakman is doing now and like every other NSW Liberal leader has been for the past 15 years while David Crisafulli’s LNP is a mixed bag but is moderatising.
However, Perrottet, Battin and Crisafulli all represent seats that have high Asian and/or Indian populations (Perrottet’s seat of Epping is very Chinese, Battin’s seat of Berwick is very Indian and Crisafulli’s seat of Broadwater has a lot of Japanese people though not all are citizens and thus many don’t vote).
Queensland Labor can’t do another scare campaign on abortion because abortion laws are officially here to stay in Queensland and are now backed by the LNP. NSW Labor can’t do it either because it was the Coalition who voted to legalise abortion in NSW and nobody is trying to appeal the laws (even the right-wing minor party MLCs have given up on trying because they know they can’t do it). However, Victorian and SA Labor don’t have the limitations that NSW and Queensland Labor do because there are actual pushes to change the laws in those states (ironic given you’d think the more progressive states would be the ones that want to keep being more progressive).
TLDR: Labor can use US Democrat-style scare campaigns on social issues in Victoria and SA but can’t in NSW or Queensland which makes things easier for them in Victoria and SA but harder for them in NSW and Victoria. If a right-winger wins the leadership (and especially if Moira Deeming is given some sort of leadership role or high-ranking shadow ministerial portfolio) then expect the campaign for the 2026 Victorian state election to be quite American (as the 2025 federal election campaign is somewhat shaping out to be) while the campaigns for the 2027 NSW state election and the 2028 Queensland state election will be normal, good campaigns on economic issues (similar to the 2023 NSW state election campaign which was probably one of the most civil campaigns in history).
The only way I can see a Jacinta-slide in 2026 would be if:
1. Battin is leader
2. He gives Deeming, Heath, Bev and co. a significant amount of power
3. Dutton is PM
4. Dutton makes multiple screw-ups during his first 18 months
If Pesutto is doomed, then Groth would be the best replacement.
@Nether Portal Tbh they’ll probably still run those scare campaigns even if Pesutto is still leader, just to a lesser extent.
@Scart they will be more effective if it’s Battin and Deeming though.
@ WL
Totally agree i think the general public would think Airport Rail deserves higher priority than SRL especially in the seats of Niddrie/Sunbury which stands to benefit the most. I think with hindsight Labor probably wishes that they put more focus on low hanging fruit. That is pretty much the only reason i have Niddrie/Sunbury in the potential paths to victory column. I do concede Niddrie/Sunbury are somewhat more religious/socially conservative than seats such as Ringwood, Box Hill and the Sandbelt seats but not to the extent that they will prioritize social issues over economic/service delivery ones.
@ Trent
I agree the next 1.5 yeas are probably better for Labor all else being equal and i think the first two years were probably going to be the low ebb anyway. Basically, Labor waited until after the 2022 state election to implement budget repair.The Deficit is actually lower now than at the 2nd Danslide and the budget if forecasted to have a higher surplus than promised. Victoria is actually now in a cash surplus for the first time since the pandemic. Victoria is also the fasted growing state economically and the economic is now 11.5% larger in Real terms than pre-pandemic. Unemployment is also much lower than when Napthine left office.
What will the federal implications be if or when Pesutto gets pushed out?
I’m talking seats like Kooyong (where Hawthorn is) and Goldstein as well as Chisholm.
Agree Nimalan. Regardless of what people may think of Labor’s policies or performance in government, it’s hard to deny that they’re a well oiled campaign machine who more often than not get the politics right with a knack for timing and targeting announcements and/or attacks.
It’s hard to imagine this whole electoral term hasn’t been carefully planned to front load the necessary negatives to 2023-24, then start 2025 with a reset (new treasurer and cabinet reshuffle is already a sign of this), and change direction and narrative for 2025-26 to a more positive one, tying in with the opening & completion of major projects and the operating budget transitioning from deficit to surplus.
Not saying they’ll recover to 2018 or 2022 levels of support, some irreversible damage has probably already been done, the media will still hammer them on debt and attack the SRL, but it’s extremely unlikely 2025-26 will be worse for them than 2023-23 while simultaneously it seems highly unlikely now that 2025-26 will be better for the Libs than 2024 was.
So the most likely trajectory over the next 2 years is at least a small reversal of 2024’s polling trend.
Nimalan
Victoria is not in surplus and the deficit projection has grown by 40% since the budget in May. The GSP is growing but only because of population growth – per capita it is the second fastest declining (ABS 30 November). The budget is dire and will get worse as the sources of revenue are not there. There will be more cost blow outs. As for a reset it is the same old second rate team with the deckchairs rearranged – Tim Pallas having thrown himself overboard. If the Libs sort themselves out in the next few weeks they can reset too.
I did not say Victoria was in Operating Surplus. The Cash surplus and operating surplus are two different things. The operating surplus factors into account infrastructure projects including cost blow outs on Metro Tunnel and West Gate tunnel as you correctly pointed out. I concede there has been a blow out on the Metro Tunnel since the May budget. This is why some infrastructure projects have been deferrred. I would personally have preferred SRL to be be deferred (not cancelled) to improve the budget bottom line. The Cash deficit was mainly a result of higher Covid payments for example compensation to small business, isolation etc which is no longer the issue. Population growth and low unemployment rates do improve the source of revenue especially payroll tax. Also i did not say Liberals cannot win in 2026 but Labor can certainly narrow the path.
@ Trent
I agree with you i would go further and say Victorian Labor is a Ruthless political machine. It is a party that was able to suffer a swing in TPP and Primary vote terms but actually increase it seat count. Victorian Labor was able to prevent Libs winning the open seat of Pakenham, an outer suburban mortgage belt which every commentator on Tallyroom including you and i conceded last time Labor will loose it. They lost Nepean but won the neighboring seat of Hastings (an area full of tradies) instead so just cancelled out Sam Groth’s Victory celebration. Labor lost Hawthorn but instead defeated a sitting Liberal MP and took Glen Waverley instead. Sitting Labor MPs were able overcome a negative redistribution in Bayswater and Bass to regain those seats. On the other hand, Louise Staley was not able to overcome a redistribution in Ripon or even get a swing towards her. I agree that there has been cost blow out on Big Build projects such as Metro Tunnel. West Gate Tunnel and Level Crossing Removal project. However, when the Libs were last in government they could not even deliver a single new railway station (Southland) on an existing line. Labor in its first term was able to duplicate both the Cranbourne, Pakenham lines extend the Mernda line with 3 new stations and remove 29 Level crossings. I will give the state Libs credit for removing 2 level crossings in Mitcham and one in Springvale along with setting up Public Transport Victoria.
Assume for a moment the libs are ready for government in Victoria..
Which is a heroic assumption.
They will still need two elections to win government in the face of back to back alp landslidea
To need 8% swings across very different types of seats in very different areas is the Liberals’ problem.
They could go hard targeting one region or type of seat and get 8-10% swings there winning a swag of seats, but not enough to form government.
They could have a broader approach and possibly get solid 4-5% swings across a variety of seats and areas but it’ll only win them the marginals and still leave them well short.
Like I said in a previous post, it’s hard to see them simultaneously getting 8%+ swings in Bentleigh and Greenvale.
The other problem is of some seats that they carried in 2010 have either moved away from being Liberal friendly or being abolished and replaced with safe Labor seats.
i think the most likely outcome will be a lab greens minority govt. i think 16 seats is a bridge too far for the libs but labor can only afford to lose 9 before slipping into minority