Gippsland South – Victoria 2022

NAT 14.2%

Incumbent MP
Danny O’Brien, since 2015.

Geography
Southeastern Victoria. The seat covers South Gippsland Shire and southern parts of Wellington Shire, and covers the towns of Foster, Korumburra, Leongatha, Mirboo North, Port Albert, Port Welshpool, Rosedale, Sale, Venus Bay and Yarram.

Redistribution
Gippsland South expanded to take in lightly-populated parts of the electorate of Morwell. These changes reduced the Nationals margin from 15.3% to 14.2%.

History
Gippsland South has existed continuously as a Legislative Assembly district since 1859. Apart from one term in the 1970s, the seat has been held by the Country/National Party continuously since 1929.

The seat was won in a 1922 by-election by Nationalist candidate Walter West. He lost his seat in 1927 to independent Henry Bodman, who died seven months after winning the seat. In the ensuing by-election, West regained his seat.

In 1929, West lost to the Country Party’s Herbert Hyland in 1929. He served as a minister in a number of governments from 1936 to 1952. In 1955 he was elected Leader of the Country Party. He served in this role until 1964, and held his seat until his death in 1970.

Gippsland South was won in 1970 by the Liberal Party’s James Taylor. He held the seat for one term before losing in 1973. He later served a term as an MLC for Gippsland province from 1976 to 1982.

The seat was won in 1973 by Neil McInnes of the Country Party. He switched to the Liberal Party in 1980, and lost his seat at the next election in 1982.

Tom Wallace won the seat in 1982 and held it until his retirement in 1992.

Peter Ryan won the seat in 1992. He remained a backbencher for the extent of the Kennett government, but he was elected Leader of the National Party after the 1999 election, and immediately moved to end the coalition agreement with the Liberal Party. Ryan led the Nationals at the 2002 and 2006 elections, and in 2008 restored the Liberal-National coalition.

In 2010, the Liberal-National coalition won power in Victoria. Ryan served as Deputy Premier in the Baillieu and Napthine governments, as well as serving in a variety of portfolios. Peter Ryan stepped down as Nationals leader shortly after the Coalition lost power at the 2014 election, and resigned from Parliament in February 2015.

Nationals candidate Danny O’Brien won the 2015 by-election, and was re-elected in 2018.

Candidates

Assessment
Gippsland South is a safe Nationals seat.

2018 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Danny O’Brien Nationals 22,813 61.9 +4.7 57.9
Denise Ryan Labor 10,464 28.4 +6.5 28.1
Ian Onley Greens 3,573 9.7 +0.1 9.4
Others 4.7
Informal 2,131 5.5 0.0

2018 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Danny O’Brien Nationals 24,110 65.3 -0.3 64.2
Denise Ryan Labor 12,797 34.7 +0.3 35.8

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas: east, north-east, south and west.

The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 52.1% in the west to 72.1% in the east.

Voter group GRN prim % NAT 2PP % Total votes % of votes
West 10.0 52.1 8,500 21.1
North-East 8.1 59.6 5,891 14.7
South 13.9 61.0 3,221 8.0
East 6.7 72.1 2,856 7.1
Pre-poll 8.2 62.5 16,508 41.1
Other votes 13.8 55.3 3,227 8.0

Election results in Gippsland South at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, Labor and the Greens.

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2 COMMENTS

  1. The boundaries in this seat seem really odd. Korumburra and Sale are miles apart and don’t seem like areas that would be in the same electorate, but I guess it would be because the population is very sparse this way and even more so in Gippsland East, which asides from Bairnsdale it is national park.

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