NAT 17.6%
Incumbent MP
Tim Bull, since 2010.
Geography
Eastern Victoria. Gippsland East covers East Gippsland Shire and northern parts of Wellington Shire, covering the towns of Bairnsdale, Lakes Entrance, Orbost, Omeo, Maffra and Heyfield.
History
Gippsland East has existed as a single-member district in the Victorian Legislative Assembly continuously since 1889. In over 120 years, the seat has only been held by seven members.
The seat was first held by unaligned MP Henry Foster from 1889 to 1902. He served as Mining Minister from 1894 to 1899.
Foster died in 1902, and the by-election was won by James Cameron. He eventually joined the Liberal Party and then the Nationalist Party, and served as a minister from 1909 to 1913.
Cameron was defeated in 1920 by Farmers Union candidate Albert Lind. Lind eventually became a member of the Country Party, and served as a minister in a number of state governments from 1935 to 1952. He served as Deputy Premier from 1937 to 1943.
Lind retired in 1961, and was succeeded by the Country Party’s Bruce Evans. He served as Country Party deputy leader from 1964 to 1970, and retired from Parliament at the 1992 election.
David Treasure of the Nationals won Gippsland East in 1992. He was re-elected in 1996, but in a shock result in 1999 he was defeated by abalone diver Craig Ingram, who was an independent candidate. Ingram came third on primary votes, but overtook the ALP on One Nation preferences, and then won the seat on Labor preferences.
Ingram joined with two other independents in supporting a minority Labor government, sharing this balance of power from 1999 to 2002. Ingram’s primary vote increased from 24% to 41% in 2002, and he won comfortably with an 11.7% margin after preferences. He was re-elected in 2006 with a slightly reduced margin.
In 2010, Ingram lost to Nationals candidate Tim Bull with a swing of 20.5%. Bull was re-elected easily in 2014 and 2018.
- Tim Bull (Nationals)
- Carl John Fechner (Family First)
- Stephen Richardson (Labor)
- Ricky Muir (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
- Nissa Ling (Greens)
- Sally Court (Animal Justice)
- Ed Barnes (Freedom Party)
Assessment
Gippsland East is a safe Nationals seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Bull | Nationals | 22,438 | 56.7 | -3.6 |
| Mark Reeves | Labor | 8,589 | 21.7 | +1.4 |
| Sonia Buckley | Liberal Democrats | 2,507 | 6.3 | +6.3 |
| Deb Foskey | Greens | 2,455 | 6.2 | -1.8 |
| Matt Stephenson | Independent | 1,509 | 3.8 | +3.8 |
| George Neophytou | Independent | 1,210 | 3.1 | +3.1 |
| Benjamin Garrett | Independent | 842 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Informal | 2,411 | 5.7 | +0.1 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Bull | Nationals | 26,819 | 67.6 | -0.3 |
| Mark Reeves | Labor | 12,859 | 32.4 | +0.3 |
Booths have been divided into four areas: the Lakes area, the east, and west.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 64.8% in the east to 70.5% in the west.
| Voter group | NAT 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Lakes | 65.7 | 11,530 | 29.2 |
| West | 70.5 | 5,510 | 13.9 |
| East | 64.8 | 3,954 | 10.0 |
| Pre-poll | 69.5 | 15,139 | 38.3 |
| Other votes | 64.2 | 3,417 | 8.6 |
Election results in Gippsland East at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals and Labor.
I reckon this could become the safest Non-Labor seat after the election, Didn’t the overlapping federal seat of Gippsland see a swing to the Nats at the recent fed election?
Yep, federal Gippsland did. Agreed that Gippsland East will be the safest LNP seat in Vic.
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-213.htm
Ricky Muir is running for the Shooter Fishers Farmers party in this electorate, chances he could replicate the success seen in the last NSW election? This is a very conservative seat so perhaps it could even become a NAT v SFF contest?
@Ham A very likely possibility, given that Gippsland is a place of the SFF namesake, and the vast crown land it contains. They were at the front and centre of opposition to the 1996 mandatory buyback.
Ricky has run Federally here for SFF and not got to double digits.
Short answer – no. I’ve met Ricky, and he’s a nice enough bloke, but he won’t get into the final two.
He actually told me back in about 2017 when he was planning to run for Morwell that he reckoned he was in with a real shot (and that SFF could maybe have held balance of power in the lower house). This is course did not happen.
No clear reason why there’d be a swing away from Bull. For SFF to have a shot here it would need to be when the Nats are in government and a case could be made that they haven’t delivered enough.
The problem with the SSF party is Jeff Bourman who is a Dan man and has a proven record of voting with and for ALP including with Dan to give him his controversial powers.