ALP 29.1%
Incumbent MP
Katie Hall, since 2018.
Geography
Western Melbourne. Footscray covers most of the City of Maribyrnong, including the suburbs of Footscray, Kingsville, Maidstone, Maribyrnong, Seddon, Yarraville and West Footscray.
Redistribution
Footscray lost its western end, with Braybrook, Brooklyn, Sunshine and Tottenham going to Laverton. Footscray then gained Kingsville, Seddon and Yarraville from Williamstown. Footscray overall becomes more of an inner-city electorate, with the changes increasing the Labor margin from 28.1% to 29.1%.
History
Footscray has existed in its current incarnation since 1927, and in that time it has always been held by the ALP. It had previously existed from 1877 to 1904.
Footscray was first won by George Prendergast in 1927. He had been one of the first Labor members of the Victorian parliament when he won the seat of North Melbourne in 1894. He held it until 1897 and again from 1900 to 1926. Prendergast had served as the first leader of the Victorian ALP and as Premier for six months in 1924. He died in office in 1937.
The ALP’s John Mullens won Footscray at the 1937 electon. He held the seat until 1945. He later went on to serve as federal member for Gellibrand from 1949 to 1955, when he left the ALP as part of the split that created the Democratic Labor Party.
In 1945, John Holland (also of the ALP) transferred from the seat of Flemington, which he had held since 1925. He served as Member for Footscray until 1955, when he returned to the seat of Flemington. He died six months after the 1955 election.
Footscray was won in 1955 by Roy Schintler, who moved three years later to the seat of Yarraville, holding it until his retirement in 1967.
Alfred Shepherd moved to the seat of Footscray at the 1958 election. He had held a number of other seats since 1945, but died only months after the 1958 election.
The 1958 by-election was won by William Divers, who held the seat until 1970. Footscray was held from 1970 to 1992 by Robert Fordham, who served as deputy leader of the ALP from 1977 to 1982.
Footscray was won in 1992 by the ALP’s Bruce Mildenhall, who held the seat until his retirement in 2006. He was succeeded in 2006 by Marsha Thomson, and Thomson was re-elected in 2010 and 2014.
Thomson retired in 2018, and was succeeded by Labor candidate Katie Hall.
- Elena Pereyra (Greens)
- Shohre Mansouri Jajaee (Animal Justice)
- Katie Hall (Labor)
- Russell Muir (Family First)
- Alan Williams (Democratic Labour)
- Jorge Jorquera (Victorian Socialists)
- Emete Joesika (Liberal)
Assessment
Footscray is the safest Labor seat in the state. The Greens are relatively strong here but are a long way from winning.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Katie Hall | Labor | 23,877 | 57.1 | +12.0 | 54.4 |
| Angus Mcalpine | Greens | 6,996 | 16.7 | -0.5 | 20.1 |
| Emete Joesika | Liberal | 7,753 | 18.5 | -8.2 | 17.3 |
| Shan Sun | Animal Justice | 3,177 | 7.6 | +7.6 | 5.9 |
| Others | 2.3 | ||||
| Informal | 2,686 | 6.0 | +0.2 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Katie Hall | Labor | 32,642 | 78.1 | +13.6 | 79.1 |
| Emete Joesika | Liberal | 9,147 | 21.9 | -13.6 | 20.9 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 75.0% in the north to 85.9% in the south-west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.7% in the north to 24.5% in the south-east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 24.5 | 82.8 | 6,158 | 15.9 |
| South-West | 22.1 | 85.9 | 5,107 | 13.2 |
| North | 14.7 | 75.0 | 4,275 | 11.0 |
| Pre-poll | 18.6 | 78.2 | 16,942 | 43.7 |
| Other votes | 21.7 | 75.3 | 6,281 | 16.2 |
Election results in Footscray at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
The new boundaries greatly benefit the Greens, bringing in most of their strongest booths in the inner West. The federal outcome in Fraser will give an idea of the likelihood of a Green challenge here. Demographic change has favoured the Greens and choosing the right candidate for the electorate should make them competitive against a relatively low profile sitting member.
The Greens, with a good candidate, have a decent chance at coming second (at least on 3CP, where it matters) in the electorate in November. The only seats the Greens have gained at a general election without coming second or first on 3CP at the previous state election are Prahran 2014 and Maiwar 2017 and they are/were 3-way marginal the Liberals/LNP have a decent chance of winning so the ALP are easier to overtake. This year`s Footscray result is likely to have an ALP primary in the 40s and so the Greens are unlikely to overtake them and the Liberals are unlikely to preference the Greens. Coming second on 3CP would make this an explicitly ALP versus Greens seat in 2026, likely increasing the Greens vote.
It seems plausible to me that the Greens already came second on a 3CP basis in 2018. We of course have nothing confirming it, since Labor achieved a primary above 50% and the VEC tends to only counts preferences where necessary. I imagine based on the results last time combined with the redistribution, they will do a Labor vs Greens preference count off the bat this time though. Similar to what happened in Preston in 2014 and then 2018.
The Greens came first in many of the federal booths here, up around 35-40% in many cases. And this is without the area being part of a targeted campaign. Preselecting the right candidate early will see the Greens competitive in this seat. A 40-40-20 split is not out of the question, with the winner determined by Liberal preferences.
Agreed, and actually preselecting a candidate around about now wouldn’t be early at all. The lead candidates in Brisbane for example were selected many months earlier than this.
Victoria keeping the discredited undemocratic GTV probably means it isn’t worth for the Greens to run a Upper House focused campaign in Western Metropolitan region, specially now that Essenden has been moved out of the region.
If I were them, I would instead divert the resources into seats like Footscray and Williamstown. Last Election was a disaster for the Greens, so many things went wrong at the wrong time. That probably won’t happen again. And 2018 was a high watermark for State Labor as well in my opinion.
With a good candidate & more resources and a low profile incumbent the Greens would be competitive here.
The redistribution has been very useful to the Greens in Footscray at the expense of the Greens in Williamstown by transferring some of their best parts of the old Wiliamstown to the Greens with Footscray loosing its weaker areas for the Greens and Williamstown gaining (different) weaker areas for the Greens.
@Ben Raue
Is there something up with the figures in the map? How did the Liberals get 12% of the primary vote in West Footscray but only 8% of the 2CP?
Nicholas,
Turns out that anomaly is in the original data if you go to the VEC website, and thus in my data repository which I draw from to generate the maps. I don’t think they recheck the 2CP figures for Victorian state elections. In seats where a full distribution of preferences is conducted there’s usually some difference between the 2CP count (based on the booth counts) and the full DoP. They just don’t make sure the numbers add up the way the AEC does, so I guess this data stands.
The bad press for Labor regarding the Flemington Racecourse flood wall (approved by the Planning Minister during the Steve Bracks years) potentially compounding the severity of the 14 October flooding in the suburb of Maribyrnong should play well for the Greens in the seat of Footscray in particular, and possibly also in the seats of Essendon & Melbourne.
The 92% 2PP in West Footscray in 2018 is unbelievable. That’s probably the highest Labor 2PP I’ve seen, although there was a 21% primary vote for the Greens.
I expect Labor’s vote in this electorate to retreat a bit following the high of 2018 and partly because of pandemic politics. This could be an ALP vs GRN contest if the Greens hold up as they’ll get AJP and VS preferences.
Like in some other electorates north of the Yarra, Footscray could permanently become an ALP vs GRN contest.
@ Votante yes the 92% is extraordinary. Personally i expect pandemic politics not to have much of an impact here in Williamstown, Essendon etc as much of this area is now more gentrified and disadvantage has moved further out to Brimbank no the inner west/inner north to have a very different reaction to lockdowns to areas further out.
I agree that the areas most affected by the pandemic are to the west and north of the (redistributed) electorate of Footscray. Brimbank LGA got removed from this electorate. There’s probably more anti-Dan sentiment there. I just noticed that there won’t be “freedom” candidates in Footscray.
I noticed that at the federal eleciton in the eastern part of Fraser, there were double digit swings away from Labor at almost every booth. There were huge swings to the Victorian Socialists and the Greens. This supports my belief that it’ll (most likely) be an ALP vs GRN contest.
Winnable for Greens if Libs preference them (possible with “put Labor last”). 3rd most winnable seat exclusively under those circumstances after Pascoe Vale and Preston (and that would also make Richmond and Northcote certain gains).
Campaign seems pretty quiet unfortunately.
I looked at some of the booths within Footscray.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/405620567669080064/1043702113814986852/image.png
Here are the results. If the Victorian Socialist and Liberal vote split 66-33 favouring greens and cookers split 50-50 (a conservative estimate) the result is 50-50 2pp on federal figures.
Most of this is due from the greens and Victorian Socialist increase, which I think will be the same for the greens this time and a really will be much better for the socialists, given that they’ve knocked on 15,000 more doors.
Footscray was definitely the biggest under performance seat for the Greens in 2018. The last two weeks of their campaign was a disaster and had particular issues in this seat.
This time around, without those issues affecting them and Labor’s vote softing slightly I think Greens primary could very well be above 25% here. And a TTP v Labor in the 40s.
Greens beat Labor in pretty much all the inner booths (Footscray and Seddon) but fell away in the more suburban parts of the seat.
I’m a little surprised Labor won the 2pp vs Greens in Yarraville, I would have thought that was clearly part of the Greens Heartland in this seat.