Essendon – Victoria 2022

ALP 15.8%

Incumbent MP
Danny Pearson, since 2014.

Geography
Western Melbourne. Essendon covers eastern parts of the City of Moonee Valley, specifically the suburbs of Ascot Vale, Ascot Vale West, Essendon, Essendon North, Flemington, Moonee Ponds, Strathmore and Strathmore Heights.

Redistribution
Essendon expanded slightly to the south, taking in Flemington from Melbourne.

History

Essendon has existed as an electoral district since 1904. Apart from one term in the 1950s when the seat was abolished, it has alternated between the ALP and conservative parties. At most elections since the 1950s it has been won by the party of government, with a few exceptions.

Essendon was first won by William Watt of the Liberal Party. He had previously served as Member for North Melbourne and East Melbourne since 1897.

Watt served as Premier for Victoria in two six-month stints from 1912 to 1914. In 1914 Watt resigned from Essendon to run for the federal seat of Balaclava for the Liberal Party. He served as a senior member of Billy Hughes’ Nationalist government before falling out with Hughes. He later served as Speaker from 1923 to 1926, and retired in 1929.

The 1914 by-election was won by the ALP’s Maurice Blackburn. He lost his seat in 1917, later returning as Member for Fitzroy and then Clifton Hill from 1925 to 1934, when he resigned to take the federal seat of Bourke. Blackburn regularly defied the ALP leadership and was expelled from the ALP in 1941, losing his seat in 1943.

Thomas Ryan won Essendon in 1917 and held it until his defeat in 1924 by the ALP’s Francis Keane. He held Essendon for one term before moving to Coburg in 1927, holding it until 1940.

In 1927, Essendon was won by Arthur Drakeford, who held it until his defeat in 1932. He held the federal seat of Maribyrnong from 1934 to 1955, serving as a minister in the Curtin and Chifley governments during  the 1940s and serving until he lost his seat in 1955 following the ALP split which caused the creation of the Democratic Labor Party.

James Dillon held Essendon for the United Australia Party from 1932 to 1943, when he lost to Samuel Merrifield. Merrifield moved to Moonee Ponds in 1945, holding it until his defeat in 1955. He then served as an upper house member for Doutta Galla province from 1958 to 1970.

Arthur Drakeford Jr won Essendon in 1945, holding it for one term before losing in 1947. He later won Pascoe Vale in 1955 and holding it until its abolition in 1958.

Allen Bateman held Essendon for the Liberal Party for one term from 1947 to 1950, when he was defeated by George Fewster of the ALP. He held the seat until 1955 when Essendon was abolished.

Essendon was restored after one term in 1958, when it was won by the Liberal Party’s Kenneth Wheeler. He held Essendon until 1979, serving as Speaker from 1973 until his retirement.

Essendon was held from 1979 to 1992 by Barry Rowe of the ALP. He served as a minister in the Labor government from 1989 to 1991. In 1992 he contested the seat of Gisborne unsuccessfully, while Essendon was won by the Liberal Party’s Ian Davis.

Davis held Essendon for one term, losing in 1996 to Judy Maddigan. Maddigan served as Speaker of the Legislative  Assembly from 2002 to 2006. Maddigan was re-elected in 1999, 2002 and 2006.

In 2010, Essendon was won by Justin Madden, a minister in the Labor government and a member of the Legislative Council. Madden had held a seat in Doutta Galla province from 1999 to 2006, and represented Western Metropolitan from 2006 to 2010.

Madden retired in 2014, and was succeeded by Labor candidate Danny Pearson. Pearson was re-elected in 2018.

Candidates

Assessment
Essendon is a safe Labor seat. The Greens poll strongly here but are a long way away from winning.

2018 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Danny Pearson Labor 19,173 46.2 +5.3 46.2
Gino Potenza Liberal 11,414 27.5 -8.3 27.5
James Williams Greens 6,971 16.8 -1.2 16.8
Richard Lawrence Independent 1,702 4.1 +0.7 4.1
Kate Baker Independent 1,356 3.3 +3.3 3.3
Dermot Connors Democratic Labour 856 2.1 +2.1 2.1
Informal 2,067 4.7 +0.8

2018 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Danny Pearson Labor 27,315 65.9 +7.2 65.8
Gino Potenza Liberal 14,157 34.1 -7.2 34.2

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, with 61% in the centre and north, and 77.5% in the south.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.3% in the north to 21.8% in the south.

Voter group GRN prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South 21.8 77.5 8,441 20.4
Central 14.2 61.1 5,665 13.7
North 10.3 61.4 3,387 8.2
Pre-poll 14.9 60.9 17,032 41.1
Other votes 20.9 69.5 6,947 16.8

Election results in Essendon at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.

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50 COMMENTS

  1. Safe Labor seat, and comfortable hold. But, with no Liberal candidate announced, plus with AJP & Socialists preferences could we see Essendon as a wildcard Labor-Greens 2CP contest?

  2. Gap between LIB and GRN is 10.7% – less than Albert Park; And the ALP primary of 46% is a bit softer than in Footscray/Preston.

    And I’m presuming the Libs are putting Labor last per their ads – which is crucial here. The LIB vote is always going to be stronger in the north of this district to save them from completely cratering like elsewhere in the inner suburbs

    Wildcard is right. In an election where Liberal preferences come their way (especially with Lib voter attitudes towards Andrews,) I think this is winnable if they can get into 2nd. Don’t think the Greens are putting in any effort here this time, but it will probably be their next best target outside of the 6 often talked about.

  3. To me this seems a surprisingly poor result for the Greens, especially compared to the other inner Melbourne seats. Didn’t eat much into Labor’s primary and in fact went backwards themselves.

    I know this is slightly different with the more Liberal voting northern end, but the Big Green Surge didn’t seem to touch Flemington and Ascot Vale.

    Maybe this is the sort of seat where a Teal instead of a Green would be a better challenger for Labor?

  4. I can’t imagine the Greens spent much time or effort campaigning in this seat, knowing they had no shot at victory.

  7. They won this on the 1992 landslide. It is a fairly affluent seat but it does have some inner city eco-socialist areas in the South around Flemington so maybe a redistribution may help the Libs longer term. IMHO they have a better chance to win Essendon than Greenvale or St Albans Sky after Dark’s favorite seats. However, i think neighboring Niddrie is a better focus for the Libs and Essendon second tier.

  8. Unless they get something like >56% TPP I don’t see the Libs winning here. Everything south of Maribyrnong Rd is hell for them, and in a future redistribution this will probably gain ultra left wing Kensington as well. This ended up being the 4th most marginal seat north of the Yarra in 2010, it’s now their 9th safest.

    I’d predict a good 5-10 seats in north/west Melbourne falling before Essendon. I’d honestly predict the Greens winning it before them.

  9. Yan Yean, Melton, Point Cook Sunbury and Nidderie are more winnable for Libs than Essendon but not the really low SES seats such as Thomastown, Broadmeadows etc

  10. @Nimalan of course it’s easier to win than what you described as Sky after Dark’s favourite seats.

    In 1992 the Liberals won it and they came close in 2010. But nevertheless I do agree that Niddrie is an easier target since the margin is lower.

  12. @ NP
    Niddrie is also more middle class does not really have any low SES or dangerous areas. It is less diverse apart from maybe the largest Italian community in the state. Also the delay in Airport Rail which would have included a station in East Keilor will hurt Labor in Niddrie.

  13. @Nimalan true and that may affect the election since the Coalition are going to gain a lot of seats.

  14. Labor has never really focussed much campaigning on Niddrie. They will at the next election I imagine, especially with high profile deputy premier Ben Carrol in the seat.

    It is a seat the Liberals could win, but only if they are winning the election, which doesn’t seem likely at this point.

  15. NP, Yes, praying that it will be enough to see the back of Jacinta Allan’s dreadful government down here which is not prioritizing housing, mental health, infrastructure, and singles like me. They got their priorities completely wrong and if she wants to lose votes to the Greens and assume they will come back automatically she will be mistaken.

    I am voting Liberal if nothing changes before November 2026.

  16. @Daniel T that is a very good decision. I struggled with mental health when I was younger and I was single for a long time when I was younger so I get how it feels. Jacinta Allan is doing nothing to support ordinary singles and families, small businesses, housing and infrastructure.

    Niddrie could go depending on how it goes, but I won’t be surprised if Pesutto wins in a landslide similar to the 2011 NSW state election.

  17. There was a seat in Kennett’s landslide that went Liberal in North-West Melbourne. Which seat was it? was it this or Niddrie.

    People shouldn’t assume a swing back to Labor in these parts. The swing against Labor might be lower than what it will be in the Eastern suburbs which i suspect will see record swings, And the Liberals may not take many seats in Northwest Melbourne. But it will certainly give Labor a scare and enough for them to pour resources here taking them away from the Eastern-suburbs which I think is a lost cause for Labor.

    If Labor fails to take Deakin and Menzies next year. I think it will seal their fate in the eastern suburbs for 2026.

  18. @Daniel T, there were two seats in the North-West Melbourne that went Libs in 1992 which were the now abolished Tullamarine (which covered the Airport to Sunbury) and Essendon

  20. Essendon and Tullamarine went blue in 1992. Essendon flipped back in 1996, and Tullamarine in 1999. Niddrie was marginal during the Kennett years but stayed in Labor hands.

  21. Although Niddrie was back then on more Labor favourable boundaries as the todays boundaries includes more Lib friendly areas like Keilor

  23. Not quite the west, but Libs won Ivanhoe until 1992. Now it is as safe for Labor as it’s ever been.

  26. 1992 was the last landslide to the libs in Victoria…. not likely to happen again in the next 20 years.

  27. Thanks Drake and Marh
    The issue is that Flemington would have densified significantly since 1992 with warehouse conversions etc. As inner Melbourne has significant population growth especially around the new Arden station this seat in the future go South of Racecourse Road. This area used to be DLP heartland and still has a high % of Catholics. The Fact that it most likely would be Labor held in 1992 on current boundaries it not really a promising sign. Sunbury and Niddrie are two seats the Libs may look into instead.

  28. @Nimalan, plus in 1992 election, it was the middle class, upper middle class and upper class that swing hard to Libs whereas most working class areas has a below-average negative swing to Labor (Broadmeadows and Thomastown even had a positive Labor swing). It was that the early 1990s economic crisis mainly affected the wealthier areas than working class areas.

  29. I’m not seeing any evidence that the Liberals have a realistic shot at winning (let alone in a landslide) in 2026.

    I would absolutely agree that the last two years have been two of the most disastrous for Labor, yet the polling has barely budged.

    I can’t see how if two years with really no good news and front loading pretty much all the bad news and an awful budget couldn’t significantly move the needle, that the next 2 years where Labor will kick more into campaign mode and have two flagship projects completed will.

    Objectively, the next 2 years will probably be harder for the Liberals to gain the roughly 8% swing they need to win the 17 seats required to form government than the last 2 years were and they don’t appear to have gained much at all. I believe the last poll still had Labor leading 55-45.

    The more likely scenario is that Labor narrowly lose their majority, possibly losing around 12-13 seats to the Greens & Liberals combined.

    But losing 17 to the Liberals alone (which is what would be required for a Liberal win) seems like a fantasy considering there has been no evidence pointing to it thus far, despite what I’d agree has been a shocking two years.

  30. @ Marh, Good point
    The other thing is the Coalition to win in Victoria needs a primary vote of about 45% to win in pretty much all seats bar maybe Ripon due to SFF etc and the Narre Warrens and Cranbourne where they can maybe win with 42% primary due to a higher vote for Christian parties such as FFP. That basically means the Libs need to increase their primary vote statewide by around 10% and even in the Narre Warrens and Cranbourne by around 15% (more than statewide increase needed). Parties like ONP play a very minor role if at all in Victoria.

  31. Trent
    It is not all about projects – yes some will come on – but it is becoming increasingly apparent that the big spend is unsustainable and it coming at the expense of services. It has been reported that hospital workers have been told to turn the lights off and use less stationery – that is truly desperate stuff. Also, there has been an odour of corruption for a while and it is possible that some of the CFMEU stuff could turn into a big stench as well as waste of public money. I too can’t see a path to a Liberal majority at the next election unless the whole government collapses into a big steaming heap. The fact that the Libs have only managed one Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong seat (South Barwon in 2010 and 2014) since 1999 has been a major roadblock.

  32. Yes…. all Ballarat seats incl Ripon which is near by.alp held. All Bendigo seats alp held. All Geelong seats alp held. The overflow seats also alp held. Out of 10 seats nil liberals. Polwarth is heading this way in 1 to 2 elections

  33. I can understand voters being annoyed with Labor for not prioritising housing or infrastructure or mental health. What I can’t understand is thinking that the Liberals will do a better job on any of those things. The Liberals (at least outside of NSW state parliament) are dedicated to small government, which means spending less and not embarking on costly new projects. They’ve never shown themselves to be enthusiastic about housing affordability or infrastructure projects or mental health, preferring to let the free market take care of those things (often ineffectively).

    In Victoria, I think a lot of voters have realised this, and whatever misgivings they have about Labor, they don’t seem to have much trust in the Liberals. At least Labor will be able to hang their hat on initiatives such as the level crossing removal project, which should help them retain middle ring seats such as Essendon.

  34. The problem the Liberals have is they’ve lost two areas with a lot of seats, the regions (Ballarat/Bendigo/Geelong) and eastern Melbourne. This is true on both a state and fed level with these areas drifting heavily to Labor. But they haven’t really gained any new territory to make up for these losses. They either need to start winning these areas back or actually start to make gains in north/western Melbourne. They’ve turned the margins in the safe western seats from 20% ALP to 10% ALP, so they’ve still got a lot of work to go.

    Of the 14 elections in Vic this century, only two (2004 fed and 2010 state) they’ve won the 2PP. And in 2004, Labor still won more seats. In 2010 where they won the state election, they only won 45/88 seats, a 1 seat majority that they lost during the term. And that’s with two redistributions since that abolished eastern Melbourne Liberal seats and rural Nat seats.

    I really can’t see the Libs having any chance of winning a stable majority government that doesn’t involve winning at least 5-10 seats north of the Yarra or in the Geelong/Ballarat/Bendigo area.

  35. Victoria Labor’s certainly going to take a haircut at the next election, whether they like it or not. They’re not at Bracks’ level of popularity in 2002 or Andrews during his entire tenure that’s for sure. But for as long as the Liberals continue to focus on culture war issues, that your average Joe doesn’t care about (having essential services and affordable cost of living on the other hand, they do) and picking at Labor without any better policies or agendas, they won’t get anywhere near majority for the next decade.

    Essendon as a seat is right in the middle of growth areas which would only make it easier for Labor to retain or hold on even if the tide goes out. Their main issues will be the outer-suburbs like Melton, Sunbury, Narre Warren, Pakenham etc. They’ve taken the former two for granted for wayyy too long and they need to stop pretending they care about the latter two with tokenistic announcements for the big smokes. Surely improving health and education services would be better than yet another Level Crossing Removal which seems to be the one project Victoria Labor is obsessed with.

  36. @ Tommo9
    As a Victorian, i do actually think the Level Crossing Removal Project is one of the most trans formative projects in Victoria’s history. While it may not be as exciting as the Metro Tunnel or Airport Rail, it does prepare the network for future expansion. I actually wish Victoria did what Sydney did in the 1930s and pretty much remove all the Level crossings. There are no level crossings in Great cities such as London, Paris, New York etc within the Urban core. I agree Melton and Sunbury are of concern. However, for the Narre Warrens and Pakenham infrastructure has been better managed the Cranbourne/Pakenham rail line will be level crossing free by end of next year. In Melton, Labor has committed to a TAFE, Hospital and already opened an English Language primary school.

  37. Agree Nimalan, I feel Brisbane is similar to Melbourne in having a large number of level crossings. There are some projects underway to remove them (two in particular, one for Beams Rd Carseldine and another one in Coopers Plains) but the scale of progress is nowhere near that for Melbourne or Perth.

  38. Agree Yoh An, I really hope that Brisband and Adelaide follow suit and have a comprehensive level crossing removal program.

  39. @redistributed – I’m not so much debating the validity of any of those concerns, but more just whether or not they are actually changing voter intention.

    A lot of those concerns, particularly around the costs of the big build and concerns about other services like healthcare, were already key issues and being hammered in the media leading up to the 2022 election, but really had no impact on the result; and similarly, those same concerns have only been amplified in the two years since (in part because of the terrible 2024 budget), but still there has been no evidence of it having any meaningful impact on voting intention yet.

    So my point isn’t whether or not those concerns are valid, or even whether or not the projects outweigh them, but just that the past 2 years have been about as rough as it gets for Labor, yet so far it still hasn’t translated into any sort of meaningful swing to the Liberals.

    And that, even though many of those concerns and negatives are likely to continue into the 2026 election, at least 2025-26 is likely to have some positives to offset it (projects opening and more likely “election-friendly” budgets) which 2023-24 didn’t have.

    Basically, if Pesutto’s team practically made up no ground at all during a disastrous 2023-24, it’s hard to imagine a miraculous turnaround (to the tune of ~8%) in 2025-26.

    The comment that Pesutto was going to win 2026 in a landslide, given the reality of the electoral map and lack of polling movement over the past two years, is what I was really just saying doesn’t have any evidence to support it.

  40. Agree Trent, for Victoria 2026 the best outcome for the Libs/Coalition is for a 2010 style result where they win a narrow majority (at most 1-2 seats) or a minority government. Even in minority, I doubt they would be keen on taking office in such a weak position because they could easily be turfed out at the next election (like in 2014).

    A better scenario is for the Coalition to force Labor into minority (similar to Gillard 2010), as it will weaken Labor and enable the Coalition to build up more attacks to secure a stronger majority in the subsequent election.

  41. With no independents currently in the Victorian lower house, the Liberals don’t even have anybody to form a minority government with.

    Given the fact that polling has shown that the Labor primary vote has slipped (but the 2PP has barely moved) since 2022, I think the 2026 election will be close-call between a small Labor majority or a Labor minority.

    The Liberals will win some seats off Labor. The Greens will likely win at least 1-2 seats off Labor. Labor only need to lose 12 total to lose their majority, and that’s a possibility.

    Labor losing 17 seats (up to margins of over 8%) to the Liberals alone – on top of any losses to the Greens – which is what the Liberals would require to even match their slimmest of slim 2010 victories, just doesn’t seem realistic in the context that there have not yet been any indications of that level of movement occurring even after a pretty terrible two years.

  42. @ Trent
    Agree, in 2010 they took 12 seats of Labor and 1 seat from an independent to get bare minimum. The electoral map is much worse now. The other thing i keep mentioning is that the Libs will need to increase their primary vote to around 45% in most seats to have a chance which a 10% increase.

  43. There hasn’t really been any polling this year in Victoria. Only 4 polls this year, and only two of them since the budget. Kevin Bonham on twitter worked out the 2PP, using last election preferences

    Resolve: ALP 51.1% (post budget)
    Redbridge: ALP: 53% (post budget)
    Resolve: ALP: 53.6% (pre budget)
    Redbridge: ALP: 52.5% (pre budget)

    There really hasn’t been enough polls this year to get a rough idea of how Vic Labor is traveling.

  44. The CFMEU scandal should hurt them as well, given just how closely they were tied to Andrews and to a lesser extent Allan as well

  46. This election is now the coalitions to lose, no seriously. Labor is not in front. You don’t win 4 terms in Victoria, hasn’t happened since the uninterrupted 27 year Bolte-Hamer-Thompson era 1955-1982.

    The latest poll is 50-50, Who is to say it will get better for Labor? Who says their next budget will be more popular. Look what the QLD budget did for Miles, actually made things worse.

    Labor will lose the 2026 election unless the Liberals pull a rabbit out of the hat and pull a John Hewson or Bill Shorten. (OR unless Dutton is PM then I agree they have no chance)

    Albo being in his 2nd term in 2026 (possibly in minority) Labor will lose in 2026, Liberals are the favorites to win in 2026 and would have to screw up to lose.

    Labor will lose 20-25 seats. (Coalition will gain around 15-20) Others + Greens will gain a few.

  47. The Coalition may win in a landslide. They could now be the favourites. John Pesutto even has Daniel T’s vote.

  48. I think Victoria could go the way of the ACT – where there’s a long term Labor government that renews itself with a Greens presence and internal changes in representation keeping it fresh. It really does seem like Melbourne (the entire metropolitan area) has moved that much towards the “left”. Plus the additional problem others have raised of the 3 large regional centres also moving left as people are priced out of Melbourne, and they even have a surprisingly large Green vote.

    It’s really hard to see the Liberals path to victory. A 5% uniform swing back to 50/50 wins them 8 seats when they need twice that many. Liberals can’t just win back low hanging fruit, they’ll need to undo some of the structural shifts that happened in 2018. Even then they need to win back the Sandbelt (all on 8-10% margins), or win seats they didn’t hold in 2010 which has elduded them so far, with many of them possibly only not being safe Labor as COVID specials. And there are seats the Liberals still hold where I don’t think they’re completely secure like Polwarth and the overlaps with federal teals and Labor – and there might be even more of those overlaps after 2025.

    It’s not impossible for Liberals, and Dutton being replaced by a more moderate and/or Victorian leader after 2025 could help things along. I just think Victoria is in the same position as WA where the best the Liberals can hope for at the next election is to get back in striking distance, and they might not even manage that.

  49. @John have a look at the 2011 NSW state election and the 2012 Queensland state election.

    Prior to the 2011 NSW state election, Labor had 50 seats (having lost Penrith and Ryde to the Liberals at by-elections with record swings) and the Coalition had 37. The Coalition then won 69 seats, Labor won just 20, its worst ever performance in NSW.

    Prior to the 2012 Queensland state election, Labor had 51 seats and the LNP had 33 (having lost a seat to KAP after Beaudesert MP Aiden McLindon defected). Then all of the sudden the LNP won a massive landslide, winning 78 seats and leaving Labor with just seven, which is the minimum number of players allowed on the pitch for a soccer team. Unexpectedly however Queensland Labor managed to regain government in 2015.

    Big things can happen. Also, the ACT only has a leftist coalition government because the ACT uses the Hare-Clark system used in Tasmania which although it works down there it doesn’t work in the ACT. The ACT should put in single-member seats and maybe Tassie should switch the upper house to Hare-Clark and then create single-member lower house seats and elect members of both chambers at state elections like the rest of Australia does.

  50. @Nether Portal – Can’t rule out something like that happening in Victoria, but not seeing anything like 2011 NSW or 2012 QLD. Both those elections, very heavily publicly telegraphed landslide defeats, were an election after the popular long term incumbent left and the wheels started falling off, but Labor hung on anyway with their new leader.

    QLD 2015 was a regression to the mean. What I’m arguing is I think “the mean” in Victoria may well be a Labor government, with Liberals needing a high water mark to get in.

    Also as an aside – if the ACT had single member seats, on current votes it’s quite likely Labor would hold all of them and 20 of them on safe margins. Of course things would evolve differently in a new system (Greens would hyper target the inner north to secure a seat, Liberals probably would establish a base in Tuggeranong and the Inner South, wouldn’t be too hard for an independent to build profile in the 2 or 3 suburbs that make a seat) but Hare Clark works a lot better here.

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