Eltham – Victoria 2022

If the LNP ever want to get back into office they will need to win a seat like this.

Historically this north-east Melbourne may have been a seat in play, I think with Labor having recently put more attention on a middle class progressive bloc, this rules out the Libs winning areas like this for a long time. The overlapping federal Jagajaga gets safer every year.

The area transferred from Yan Yean like Diamond Creek have an inflated Labor majority since the Liberal candidate was disendorsed last time. For this reason, it maybe the case that the Labor TPP is actually slightly lower than the state-wide figure. I dont see a path for the Libs to win a majority without winning Eltham, Carrum and maybe even Narre Warren North since there are fewer seats in the Eastern Melbourne heartland.

This area is extremely socially progressive, similar to Belgrave/Mount Dandenong which is why despite being quite affluent, Labor does very well here. With the more socially conservative and right wing populist direction the Libs are going, they will do increasingly poorly in the affluent but socially progressive areas where previously they would have been doing increasingly well in.

Eltham seems to have a socially progressive middle-class population, I wonder if that’s true? Other middle-class areas in Melbourne and other cities are friendlier to the Libs.

Marh, Eltham is quite affluent not as much though as the inner ring of suburbs such as Boroondara, Stonnington, Bayside etc. It is median household is quite high and far above the metro and state average. Nillumbik Shire has the highest SEIFA score in the state. It has a very high Green vote for a suburban area. I would say a compaable area to Eltham would be Ashgrove- the Gap in QLD. Quite a few of Melbourne’s most liveable suburb are in the North East. https://7news.com.au/business/melbourne-property/melbournes-most-liveable-suburb-crowned-as-northcote-in-2021-study-c-4796275

It seems one theory why Eltham is Labor leaning could be the high-paying University Anglo professionals whose incomes tend to be stable. I bet the other areas as you said the Eastern Suburbs tend to be small business owners/ Self-employed Tradies who would be traditional Liberal Voters. I wonder if many Eltham voters used to lived in the Inner City like Northcote when they were in their youth before moving to Eltham when they had children?

This area has become increasingly safer for Labor over the past decade or so, I don’t see the Liberals winning this back considering how safe the federal seat of Jagajaga has become for Labor and the double-digit drop in Liberal primary in May.
This seat was previously very marginal and a big focus of both major parties in 2014 and 2018. However likely Labor retain at this point.

Small business owners and self-employed tradies are more prevalent in the outer eastern suburbs (Knox, Manningham and Maroondah) than Boroondara, Stonnington and Bayside which are affluent upper class areas, home of CEOs of large companies and the like.

@ Dan M, you are absolutely correct about the Boroondara, Stonnington and Bayside home to the elite suburbs of Melbourne. The vast majority of elite suburbs can be found in those 3 LGAs. Other Elite/Old money suburbs outside those 3 LGAs include East Melbourne, Eaglemont-Ivanhoe East in Banyule, Albert Park/Middle Park in Port Phillip, Caulfield North in Glen Eira and Mont Albert/Surrey Hills in Whitehorse.

If Liberal want to get into office in Victoria they will need to win a seat like this which in the current environment is extremely unlikely to happen.

Eltham is generally pretty socially progressive. The stretch of Eltham-Research-Warrandyte is full of tree tories and tree changers, in fact this can be used to describe the whole of Nillumbik council area. The Eltham area does have some pricy real estate but does also have what would be considered cheaper housing and some units in Eltham, so the Labor vote isn’t just coming from middle class socially progressive professionals. The area is also retty white and this Labor margin i believe is pretty soft, a more pallatable Liberal government could do a lot better here.

@Ham A large part, or maybe the whole of the seat of Bundoora falling within Jagajaga also probably helps the margin, as well as the Heidelberg West and Heights area been so strong for Labor (This is what until recently kept the seat of Ivanhoe in the Laobr column).

To expand on this, a certain amount of the vote in the north-east and/or Nillumbik council may not necessarily be enthusiastic votes for Labor or voting in support of their economic policy but more of a ‘not going to vote Libs due to s0cial conservatism’.

In the Herald Sun yesterday, there was comments regarding about how an elected Liberal government would remove a level crossing at Diamond Creek, which is in this seat.

Do we agree with the Liberals and think that this is possibly a winnable seat for the Liberals in two months time?

Slim margin here compared to many other Labor seats, could we see an upset result here on election night? Libs came very close in 2010.

Interesting how many seats there are in Victoria that were often Liberal held (often safely too) before 1999 or 2002 and have just never been won back since then. This is one of them…

I can’t see Eltham falling unless the government does, so this should stay Labor this election. It’s the sort of seat the Liberals will want to cut the margin of though, so they can pick it up in 2026.

The equivalent bits of Perth would be somewhere like Mundaring or Darlington, on the fringes of suburbia, and affluent, but with a strong progressive streak – in recent years, Mundaring has only gone Liberal when they win big (like the WA 2013 state election)

I dont think this an area with Anti-Andrews sentiment here. A well established area where many people could easily work from home. Nilumbik Shire has the highest SEIFA in all of Victoria. Interestingly Matt Guy grew up here and went to school here. On election day last time he was handing out HTV cards at his old Primary school (Sherbourne PS). This ended up being the second worst booth in the seat. I think this seat really show the disconnect the Liberals are experiencing. If he cannot appeal to the community he grew up in and he represents and lives in a neighbouring seat. It has been said the law and order campaign backfired badly in Bentleigh well this area is known to have some of the lowest crime rates in Australia (Montmorency is the 7th safest in Melbourne out of 321). This is an Upper Middle Class area with some areas being comfortable middle class. I agree Libs came close in 2010 and during the Kennett years it was Liberal held.

The Liberals have been a joke ever since Kennett was turfed out by the independents in 1999. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

Nillumbik has the highest SEIFA in all of Victoria? Did not expect that. Guess it makes sense in hindsight.

Interestingly, Hurstbridge has the lowest score in the council and it is still 88. The Council and the Urban part have a score of 96. Bayside, Borondoora and Stonnington are close behind in SEIFA rankings. Perhaps a difference is that Nilumbik has very few renters, social housing, apartments etc compared to the 3 other elite LGAs.

https://profile.id.com.au/nillumbik/seifa-disadvantage

This area, as well as Monbulk, were both held by the Liberals during the Kennett years but I don’t see them winning them back anytime soon. Both are socially progressive areas where the current Victorian Liberals under Matt Guy will have little to no appeal. The Narre Warren seats and Cranbourne are probably more like to fall before Eltham and Monbulk.

I feel Eltham electorate is more of a socially progressive area despite being in the outer east explain why Libs margin seems poor despite being high income and SEIFA. I wonder if there are lots of former Inner city residents who moved there?

@ Marh, i grew up and still live close to here and know quite a lot of people who went to school with me etc. I am not really sure it is many inner city residents who moved etc i believe this area has always attracted people who like being close to nature/tree changers etc. Like Adam said there are comparisons to Monbulk. Nilumbik shire while having lots of land is virtually off limits to development and will not experience significant population growth i believe if the Libs were to the centre they would win Eltham, Monbulk, Macedon, Albert Park, Bellarine and Ivanhoe, all affluent areas but quite socially progressive.

*know a lot people from Eltham

Nimalan
Isn’t it standard procedure for a candidate to choose the most hostile booth at which to hand out HTVs?
Sherborne is no longer the worst Liberal booth as Guy was able to defend it to a lower than average swing.
I was unaware of his presence there, either as pupil, or on Election Day, but I am surprised, both at the small size of this, his target booth, and at the suggestion that he didn’t cover many locations. Do you know if he was at Sherborne all day? – or if not, for how long?

Labor retain

@ Phil

Regarding standard procedure i am actually not sure to be honest. I think it would depend on the electorate itself. For example if i was Daniela De Martino in Monbulk, i would chose a bellwether booth such as Belgrave South, Macclesfiled or Billanook PS (Montrose South) rather than the most hostile booth which is Narre Warren East. It also depends on the size of the booth. In Bentleigh as per our discussion i dont think it will matter for the majority parties so may just choose a big booth.

I am not sure how much time he spent at Sherbourne PS. I agree Eltham was a key target seat last time and it makes sense for him to target that booth. See link below for more details.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/on-election-day-smiling-matthew-guy-feels-the-love-and-loathing-at-his-old-primary-school-20181124-p50i3a.html

IIRC, on the day of the 2007 federal election, John Howard went to Ermington, which is consistent with that “procedure”.

Nimalan
Thanks for the link. It seemed likely that the visit to Sherbourne was a brief photo opportunity.

I’m actually a little bit surprised the Labor margin didn’t balloon out to a higher margin here in 2018 in relation to a Matthew Guy backlash, although this area likely has a stubborn Liberal voting population due to the wealth of the area.
As for Nillumbik having the highest SEIFA, it kind of makes sense when you look at the layout of Nillumbik and demographics. Part of Nillumbik is in metro Melbourne and part isn’t, lots of uneven and hilly areas, therefore lack of apartments and units, therefore lack of renters, Eltham has some appartments but they don’t go higher than 2 storeys and aren’t large buildings. Also the area is pricey and isn’t inner-city so lacks the 20-29 demographic. A lot of the area has only been developed in recent decades where people build big houses on big land out of the way, the area lacks social housing and may not be considered a good area to put it, a lot of the area is hard to access or inaccessible by public transport. There doesn’t seem to be a lot or any industrial areas near most of Nillumbik so it’s not an area a lot of working class people would move to to be closer to work. The area seems to have a large demographic of 40-65 who are professionals established in their career or tradespeople who work for themselves and the kids may have moved out. Is SEIFA also the measurement where been retired counts as disadvantage, so a lot of old money areas show as been more disadvantaged than they actually are. Nillumbik from memory would have a decent sized 65+ population but not as much as other wealthier areas as lots of Nillumbik property is big and requires lots of maintenance, so the older demographic may move out to downsize.
The area robably has a stubborn Green vote and Stbborn Lib vote, the softest vote is probably for Labor.

The area also doesn’t have any new cheaper housing estates like other areas.

Also surpised at the lower Green vote here than expected, although that can probably be put down to a swing away from the Greens last time and their under performance at recent state elections. At the recent federal election booths in this seat, esecially around Eltham got around 20% Greens vote.