Caulfield – Victoria 2022

ALP 0.2%

Incumbent MP
David Southwick, since 2010.

Geography
Southeastern Melbourne. Caulfield covers the suburbs of Balaclava, Caulfield, Elsternwick, Gardenvale, Glenhuntly and Ripponlea and parts of the suburbs of Ormond, St Kilda and St Kilda East. Caulfield covers northwestern parts of the City of Glen Eira and small parts of the City of Port Phillip to the east of St Kilda.

Redistribution
Minor changes were made to Caulfield’s north-western corner, gaining part of St Kilda East from Prahran and losing a smaller area to Prahran. These changes flipped the seat from a very slim Liberal margin to a very slim Labor margin.

History
Caulfield was first created in 1927. In that time it has never been won by the ALP, and has always been won by conservative candidates, except one election when the seat was won by an independent socialist, in 1943.

The seat was first won in 1927 by the Liberal Party’s Frederick Forrest. He was re-elected in 1929, but died in office in October 1930.

The ensuing by-election was won by Harold Luxton. He held the seat for two terms, retiring in 1935. He was replaced in 1935 by Harold Cohen. He had been an MLC representing Melbourne South since 1929, and held Caulfield until 1943.

In 1943, Cohen was defeated by Andrew Hughes, an independent socialist candidate. Hughes  only held the seat for one term, losing to the Liberal Party’s Alexander Dennett.

Dennett ran as a candidate for the Electoral Reform party in 1955, and lost his seat to the Liberal Party’s Joseph Rafferty. Rafferty moved to the seat of Caulfield in 1958, which he held until 1967, when he moved again to Glenhuntly, which he held until his retirement in 1979.

In 1958, Caulfield was won by Alexander Fraser. He had previously held the seat of Grant from 1950 until his defeat in 1952, and then Caulfield East from 1955 to 1958. Fraser held the seat until his death in 1965.

The 1965 by-election was won by Ian McLaren. He had previously held the seat of Glen Iris for one term from 1945 to 1947. After one term in Caulfield, he moved to Bennettswood in 1967 and held it until his retirement in 1979.

In 1967, Caulfield was won by Edgar Tanner, who had previously been the Liberal Member for Ripponlea since 1955. He held Caulfield until his retirement in 1976.

Charles Francis won Caulfield in 1976. The next year he was expelled from the Liberal Party after abstaining on a no-confidence motion against the Liberal government, and he lost his seat in 1979 to Ted Turner, son of the former member.

The younger Turner served as a shadow minister in the 1980s and as Government Whip in the first term of the Kennett government, retiring at the 1996 election.

Caulfield was won in 1996 by the Liberal Party’s Helen Shardey. Helen Shardey was re-elected in 1999, 2002 and 2006, and served on the frontbench when the Liberal Party was in opposition.

Shardey retired in 2010, and Caulfield was won by Liberal candidate David Southwick. Southwick was re-elected in 2014 and 2018.

Candidates

Assessment
Caulfield is a very marginal seat. The Liberal Party usually has a stronger hold on the seat but it has rarely been particularly safe over the last few decades. Most likely the Liberal Party will retain this seat but if Labor has a good night they could win here.

2018 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
David Southwick Liberal 17,861 46.9 -4.8 46.1
Sorina Grasso Labor 13,054 34.2 +4.5 34.0
Dinesh Mathew Greens 5,387 14.1 -2.2 14.8
Troy Evans Animal Justice 1,153 3.0 +3.0 3.0
Aviya Bavati Sustainable Australia 665 1.7 +1.7 1.7
Others 0.5
Informal 1,735 4.4 +0.2

2018 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
David Southwick Liberal 19,162 50.3 -4.6 50.1
Sorina Grasso Labor 18,958 49.7 +4.6 49.9

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: east, north-west and south-west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas on election day, ranging from 53.9% in the east to 57.8% in the north-west. About 60% of the vote was cast through other categories of the vote, and the Liberal Party won those votes sufficiently to hold on to the seat.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.7% in the east to 18.2% in the north-west.

Voter group GRN prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North-West 18.2 42.2 6,664 16.6
South-West 14.4 42.9 4,285 10.7
East 10.7 46.1 4,209 10.5
Pre-poll 14.0 54.4 13,186 32.9
Other votes 15.4 53.9 11,711 29.2

Election results in Caulfield at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

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168 COMMENTS

  1. Alternate history, If Labor had won Caulfield, Sandringham and Brighton at the 2018 state election, which seats do you guys think would have been held for them this time? Would they all have gone back Liberal or would Labor have held some of them?

  2. I think Caulfield messes up the ABC election night predictions algorithms where they predict Labor win on election night but then the Jewish voting early due to Shabbat ensures Libs win the next day.

  4. @ marh
    You are 100÷ correct. this is why you can’t look at booth results to see how Jews vote. some fools including on tallyroom have pointed out that the Greens do well in Caulfield booths so they must have strong support in the Jewish community which they will now loose which just ridiculous.

  5. Totally agree Nimalan. The vast majority do not vote on election day so the booth results are meaningless to assess the Jewish vote, in fact they make a good snapshot of the non-Jewish voting patterns in Caulfield.

  6. @Daniel T I think they would’ve regained them if they lost them.

    @Marh that happened in NSW too. On election night a bunch of people said Labor won Holsworthy, Ryde and Terrigal yet they were put back in doubt later on the night but then when early votes and postal votes came in the Liberals won them all. Ryde was recounted but still won by the Liberals by 54 votes. Yet I knew they had won those seats even before the ABC called them because I know that early votes and postals can have a big effect and recent elections have seen lots of voters (especially in urban areas) vote early.

  7. I think Labor would have possibly won Caulfield in 2022 if it wasn’t for the “teal” who most likely cut into the Labor candidate’s vote and leaked preferences back to Southwick, by giving disillusioned Liberal voters an alternative to put #1 without having to vote Labor.

    There was probably a slight factor of that in Brighton too but nowhere near enough to wipe out the 5%+ margin there.

  8. The Libs were on 46.8 at the 4CP. The Libs at that stage needed only 13% of preferences to win, so I think they were easily winning that regardless of if a Teal ran or not. As the Vic election seemed to be a bit of a trend of the Libs improving their vote in richer seats (Hawthorn, Kew, Malvern, Sandringham, Brighton and Nepean). It was middle to upper-middle class areas where they really struggled.

    I think David Southwick has a bit of a personal vote. This is an area that Libs always outperform on a state level to federal.

  9. @Drake – Kew recorded a 5.0% swing against the Liberals on FP, and a 0.7% swing against the Liberals on the 2PP. There was no improvement of the vote whatsoever.

  10. I believe it was David Southwick that leaked the recordings. I am curious how voters here will take to what’s happened with defamation case here.

  11. @ SpaceFish
    I think Southwick is fine here. However, if they move right wards under a new Leader, i can see Kew, Mornington etc falling to the Teals

  12. Fair point however, David Southwick has a small margin so It’s quite possible that he’ll be punished for his parties actions and his own will missed in all of media noise.

  14. @ SpaceFish
    I think the Middle East Conflict will lead his profile rising notwithstanding the Moira Deeming saga among the Jewish community. Jess Willson in Kew and Chris Crewther in Mornington do not have that benefit where they have a closely knit community that will back them.
    The Middle East Conflict would hurt Liberals in Greenvale though with a growth in VS/Greens support from last time.

  15. I think the impact of this case on Southwick will be his standing in the party room and his leadership aspirations, rather than with his constituents.

    I don’t think his recordings will impact his support in this seat whatsoever – it’s a “moderate” seat that would support Pesutto much more than Deeming, and mostly, Southwick is very popular with the Jewish community. I think his incumbency advantage in this seat is enormous and Labor would have won this seat in 2018 (and held it comfortably in 2022) if not for Southwick’s incumbency.

    I have read that there is a lot anger towards him in the party room, I think it’s safe to say if there is any movement regarding leadership he will not longer be in the leadership team. That could influence his future in the party.

    If he doesn’t contest the 2026 election, not only with the Liberal lose their very strong incumbency advantage with Southwick, but there could be a strong backlash against them over his treatment as well.

  16. @ Agree,
    I was not referring to his standing in the party room, i think his incumbency on the seat and his popularity among the Jewish community is too strong.

  17. My take is that if Pesutto loses the leadership, Southwick loses his deputy leadership (this is almost certain), and then Southwick doesn’t contest the 2026 election which is a real possibility if he feels like he only has a future as a disliked backbencher, then Pesutto will probably lose Hawthorn and Labor will gain Caulfield without Southwick’s incumbency advantage.

    With the Liberals already needing to win 17 seats to form government – considering they have no crossbenchers they could form a minority government with – going further backwards by losing Hawthorn & Caulfield would make it near impossible for them to pick up 19 seats elsewhere.

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