Brunswick – Victoria 2022

Does the redistribution make this harder or easier for the greens to retain?

Easier. “The Green margin in Brunswick increases from 0.6% to 2.3%”. From Antony Green

Its also more of an inner city seat than the previous incarnation was as it moved south wards

The greens will increase there margin here due to incumbency.

Labor has announced they intend to remove every level crossing in this electorate, which must suggest they reckon this seat is in play. Could be a very close contest here and in the nearby Northcote.

Also the redistribution has pushed the Liberal primary down to 7.8%, is there a seat anywhere with a Liberal primary that low? Even McGowan’s seat or Rockingham had a higher primary vote than that!

Well to be fair Labor got a primary vote of 6% in Kooyong in the federal election, though it’s more because Monique Ryan took a lot of the left vote than Labor incompetence. Brunswick is probably the most left wing area in the entire country so no surprises there.

Just saw the plans. It’ll be a disaster with traffic lol. Don’t see Labor winning this either. 2018 was a high water mark, especially when Daniel Andrews is considered.

I don’t think Labor will improve their vote in any of the Greens held seats (Melbourne, Brunswick, Prahran*), or key Greens targets (Northcote, Richmond, Albert Park).

In all 6 seats, I expect the Labor vote to go backwards and the Greens vote to increase.

* Labor can actually win Prahran, but not because of a swing. I stand firm that Labor will go backwards and Greens will increase their vote, but the dynamics of that seat are that if the Liberals fall to third Labor can win despite going backwards.

The liberals don’t even come 3rd place in the Fitzroy North booths.

The removal of rail crossings may help east west traffic flow, but may actually result in more traffic travelling through the area – the railway line is currently a deterrent. Also, removing rail crossings will do nothing to improve the frequency of the train services beyond the current every 20mins. This requires duplication of the line at the northern end – in the safe seat of Broadmeadows. It will also presumably mean extended disruptions to rail services and the closure of the Upfield cycleway for a long time. I can’t see a project that may increase vehicle traffic while not improving rail services, being a vote winner, at least not with Brunswick voters.

@Ham The Nationals only poll around 5% in Nimbin, I’ve seen it lower previously. The Animal u==Justice party outpolls them there.

Interesting to note that both in Brunswick and Melbourne the branding Labor is using is slightly different in colour scheme, and they’ve gone for a more Greens style “[Name] for [Electorate]” design on their corflutes and pamphlets.

The Green ad spend in the area seems quite high though, with a lot of physical and digital material. With the redistribution it is definitely a Green hold with an increased margin. Bandt got 50%+ in all the Carlton North and Fitzroy North booths at the federal election, with none of the state party blunders of 2018, I don’t doubt that Tim Read will be able to get similar.

Labor don’t stand a chance here and in Melbourne. Will be held easily by the Greens.

I have attended two candidate forums and watched Greens MP Dr Tim Read and Labor Candidate Mike Williams perform. I think Tim Read has performed better, more nuanced at both forums. Over the last 4 years Read has been very focussed and attentive on his electorate. He has also been willing to work with the government, especially during the pandemic bringing his status as a former doctor and medical researcher in advising the government in parliament.
On Level Crossing Removal and need to duplicate and extend the Upfield line, Read also understands the many issues in play, while Williams sprouts the Government line that frequency will be increased when Metro tunnel opens and Brunswick level crossings removed. He doesn’t understand the northern bottleneck or the regional context of need to extend the Upfield line to address transport issues in the Northern Transport corridor that also relates to the Craigieburn line approaching capacity, car dependency on the peri-urban fringe contributing in a small way to congestion in Brunswick.
At The Forum run by Brunswick Residents Network Mike Williams blamed Merri-bek Council for poor planning, failing to understand the role of the State Government and the Planning Minister on local planning issues.
Preferences may be crucial in this electorate for the Greens. The AJP Rachel LaMarche, Reason Party Shea Evans, Victorian Socialists Nahui Jimenez and serial independent George Georgiou are all articulate candidates and their preferences are likely to matter.
I think the boundary changes may have slightly improved The Greens potential vote.
My prediction is a Greens win for Dr Read, but will likely depend on preferences.

Based on how things have been going on the prepoll campaign, I think Labor actually did a really good job selecting their candidate. Seems like a very progressive, down to earth, energetic guy.

I do feel like it may have been a bit wasted, and perhaps would have been better utilised in Pascoe Vale where Labor is incumbent.

I do expect this seat to stay quite marginal because of this though, even if a Greens retain is extremely likely.

Won’t be marginal, easy GRN retain. And I think Brunswick will most likely have the highest Greens primary in the State. Most likely 45% or above.

Brunswick is probably the most left wing electorate in Melbourne. The Liberal Party never do well here. Even when the Liberals won the 2010 state election, Brunswick was one of only four seats, that didn’t swing to Liberal.

In 2022 the Victorian Socialists almost beat the Liberals in Brunswick. In some polling stations the Victorian Socialists beat the Liberals.

The Brunswick North Primary School polling station always has a low Liberal vote. It was also the last polling station to shift from Labor to the Greens.

The area around Brunswick North Primary is the least hipsterized area of Brunswick.

I doubt Labor is ever going to win this seat back. The problem for the Greens in this electorate is if the Victorian Socalists start gaining traction. This will probably in the future be the first seat to have a TPP count of the Greens vs. the Socialists

Dan, that would be unique almost like a National v One Nation 2CP contest (which has occurred a few times, including Maranoa in 2019 I think).

@ Kaniel Outis

What would you say is the most left-wing suburb in Australia? I personally feel Fitzroy around Brunswick Street maybe the Sacred Heart PS booth is. Also Newtown in Sydney close to King Street maybe second. The electorate of Melbourne has East Melbourne which is more teal and parts of the suburb of Richmond around Burnley and Cremorne are not has leftwing so i think in terms of electorates Brunswick would be as well.

@Yoh An

One Nation won 11 state seats in the Queensland state election in 1998. They won three state seats in the Queensland state election in 2001. Its not that unique situation you suggest but l also don’t think Victorian Socialists is a fair comparison to One Nation. Victorian Socialists is at best a micro party while One Nation is a minor party. Greens would be a better comparison to One Nation.

I really don’t think Victorian Socialists will finish in the final two party preferred vote in this seat. I think Dan M is exaggerating how competitive they will be in future elections. Labor will remain in the final two party preferred vote but won’t win it off the Greens until MP Tim Read retires.

PN, I think Balmain in the upcoming NSW election will be a test case to see how well the Greens vote holds up with a retiring MP. If the Greens vote remains stable or even increases, then it shows that the underlying party support for any area/seat is not tied to the strength or abilities of the local MP.

Young, educated voters are notorious for limited party loyalty. That’s already evident with how many are choosing other left-wing alternatives to the Greens in this election, and with the demographic that strategically chose teals within Liberal seats over Labor/Greens during the federal election.

West End has to be in the conversation for most left-wing suburb. It’s the heartland for Greens seats at every level of government.

Small towns in the northern rivers of NSW, especially in Byron Shire, tend to record over 50% Greens primary votes. I believe that West End and South Brisbane had the highest Greens vote in a capital city at the federal election.

I doubt Labor could win this easily in 2026. They’d be better off sandbagging seats their marginal ALP vs GRN seats (i.e. Albert Park, Footscray, Northcote, Pascoe Vale) or else Labor seats will fall like dominos.

Adda makes a good point. The Greens were nearly obliterated in the recent Byron council elections. In 2018 they almost lost the ED of Melbourne. This year they took massive hits to their primary vote in many inner city electorates, and it wasn’t all lost to their left (most spectacularly in Northcote). There’s no such thing as a safe seat.