Box Hill – Victoria 2022

Just another quick note too, a lot of the commentary around Kennett’s loss was that the Libs took an election victory for granted.

If Mark’s observation is that Labor are campaigning like it’s close, not like they’re way in front, that’s actually quite the opposite of 1999 and a sign they aren’t taking anything granted and are putting a lot of effort into being better safe than sorry.

Even if Labor have a large buffer right now, they wouldn’t want to erode that to set the opposition up for 2026, they’d want to preserve it to make 2026 just as difficult for them. So I don’t think it’s strange that they aren’t taking it for granted, nor is it a sign of anything.

Trent, If Pesutto is leader in 2026, Labor is losing regardless.

Things are in a bad shape now as it is, in Victoria. Labor won’t be able to use the liberal boogie man in 2026 after 13 consecutive years in government and 22 of the last 26.

And your campaign comments really don’t do anything to address the fact that Labor campaigned the opposite of how they are now in 2018. If they were really that far ahead, we’d see a similar campaign. But we’re not. The campaign dynamics I’m referring to go back decades, and parties do not campaign negatively unless they’re close or behind.

Daniel Andrews has been referring to the opposition as “irrelevant” and barely mentioning them up until a few weeks ago. Now proposals that are supposed to be positive (like the SEC thing) are tarred with swipes at the liberals in almost every sentence. Quite the change from 2018.

I agree that the campaign does feel different compared to 2018 – but it just feels like Labor is being complacent. Labor felt they had a reasonable chance of losing in 2018.

I think Matthew Guy ends up in a situation where he is viewed negatively left, right and center since his policy ends up not appeasing any side because tried appease both sides just like Scott Morrison and Malcolm Turnbull

I think the distaste of the Vic Libs isn’t just dislike for Matthew Guy, not to mention the federal Libs and Dutton, but also a legacy left behind by the 2010-14 period when the Vic Libs were last in office. Bring up that period and it’s often categorised as a “do nothing government”. So then when Labor is in and it’s seen as a “doing things” government, even despite its numerous issues which some would say are more than enough to boot it out, many who would help that along the way have second thoughts once you bring up the Vic Libs and Matthew Guy.

For every voter like Mark who after the pandemic say Labor never again, many who often reside in very safe Labor seats, there are voters like Nicholas who should be Liberal voters, but can’t bring themselves to vote for them, with many of them residing in marginal swing seats. Whether by voting Labor, Green, Teal or independent, they all help to deny the Liberals the seat numbers to win back government.

If this ends up being the Labor win that many are expecting, it’ll be one of those ones where it’s not really to vote back in a perceived good government (large swings against government in heartland seats but to little avail), but to block a perceived bad opposition (small swings either for or against in marginal seats).

Also, as Marh mentions, the Vic Libs and Matthew Guy are stuck in the middle of nowhere policy wise. Be more conservative and while it may appeal to the membership, will be less appealing to the broader electorate. Be more centrist and the membership will criticise you for being Labor-lite, as they’re doing right now. As much as many hope for John Pesutto to lead the Vic Libs back to victory, I’m not so sure that a change of leadership alone would right the boat – there’s far more that needs to be done to fix the Vic Libs electoral woes.

WL, I don’t think the last Coalition government was entirely ‘do nothing’. As some commentators like Mark mentioned the Coalition in office still funded the standard or continuity functions like healthcare, sometimes even more than Labor.

However, you do have a good argument that the last Coalition government in Victoria and also other places like Queensland and WA were not ‘forward thinking’ – ie they did not consider strategic priorities like Public Transport, and these can be considered more critical than healthcare because they enhance the livability function and enable easier access across the city, providing benefits for everyone.

@ Yoh An, i respectfully disagree with you i do feel the perception that the 2010-2014 term were wasted years is in many ways accurate. During the 2010 election, the Coalition talked up Avalon Airport Rail, Rowville Rail, Doncaster Rail, Rail link between Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo and even made a commitment to Southland station but that all amounted to nothing. If they cannot even build a single station (Southland) on an existing line how can they build much needed projects such as Metro Tunnel etc. I will give them credit for setting up Public Transport Victoria and removing two level crossings in Springvale and Mitcham. I was one of those who voted Liberal in 2010 due to PT and got disappointed and converted in 2014. This is in contrast to NSW Government which got the ball rolling quickly on NWRL and the Eastern Suburbs Light Rail. Also they stuffed up planning for the Metro Tunnel to promise a Melbourne Rail link instead which would have just provided a so called Fishermens Bend station which is actually closer to Flinders Street than it is to Fishermens Bend. If they were an active government they could have held on to seats such as Carrum, Bentleigh etc

I think WL’s comment is really astute.

Especially at state level, voters reward “delivery” more than anything else. I know there are a lot of complaints about specific things that haven’t been delivered or have been delayed (eg. around the Werribee or Melton areas), but as Nimalan has pointed out in many comments there has to be prioritisation and you can’t do everything at once. Unfortunately some projects do get put on the backburner, even though some of those western suburbs projects really should have been given greater priority.

But overall, when you look at the enormous scale of work that has been done, it demonstrates a productive government that has delivered a lot, and even for many voters in areas who have so far missed out on projects that have been delayed, it still results in more trust that the government who builds a lot rather than the alternative who builds nothing are more likely to eventually get to it.

Also just on Pesutto, I don’t think it will make that much difference. Michael O’Brien was a moderate. Firstly he didn’t improve their polling position at all, but secondly he was dumped because the majority of the party are more right-wing and wanted a more attacking leader. There’s no guarantee that Pesutto won’t face a backlash from Sky/Murdoch and the conservative base of the party as well if he tries to be too moderate (and let’s face it, you can’t win in Victoria unless you are), or face revolt from the conservative wing of the party who make up the majority of membership and run the branches.

Also, Pesutto isn’t all that moderate anyway. He used his conscience vote to vote against gay adoption in 2015, against allowing trans Victorians to change their gender in 2016 and against anti-discrimination legislation in 2016. He also played a very large role in the “African Gangs” scare campaign. His gracious defeat on live TV in 2018 has boosted his reputation for now but if he’s back in the spotlight as opposition leader, all that will come under greater scrutiny and he’ll have a difficult job trying to appease both a progressive population and a conservative media & party base at the same time.

I’ll just add too, I haven’t seen a single attack ad by Labor yet. Similar to 2018, their ads have all been positive so far, promoting their track record of delivery, and the plans for free kinder, new schools, massive healthcare recruitment, etc. In fact 2018 had more attack ads than 2022 (so far, I’m sure they will come). I think that comparison that somehow 2018 was entirely positive and 2022 has been entirely negative is fictional, that’s not the case at all. Labor’s new ads are almost identical to their 2018 ads. Dan in a hard hat talking about delivering a huge agenda. Taking swipes at Libs in press conferences and announcements is no different to what he has always done.

@ Trent

Those are blatant lies about Pesutto. This isn’t twitter. No need to be an ideologue on here.

Firstly about the same-sex couple adoption, this was debunked in a series of tweets by Kevin Bonham as he was criticising the “push poll” circulating in hawthorn by the teals. He clarifies that: “ The Bill packaged recognising adoption by same-sex couples with removing a discrimination exception for religious adoption agencies. The Liberals mostly opposed the Bill while it contained the latter clause. Bill eventually passed without it as LC vote to include it was tied”. So the liberals helped pass the final bill, Pesutto included.

Secondly, Pesutto never once used the term “African gangs”. In fact, the article many Climate 200 supporters have been sharing is, despite its misleading headline, actually quoting then Labor Minister Lisa Neville. You can confirm this in that article from The Guardian dated 02/01/2018, where John says: “we all have to be very careful here and we know how important it is to engage.” Lisa Neville said: “this core group of African youths are causing huge fear”

Also, your assertion that Dan’s 2022 campaign is less attacking is fictional, considering he’s spent 100s of thousands putting billboards/signs up on freeways around Melbourne with “Matthew Guy: The Liberal’s CUTS Guy”. Secondly, he’s not really focussing on accomplishment when he’s bringing up bitter arguments from 1992 with the SEC, and announcing upgrades to 80-something schools that he’s neglected over the past decade. All of those things are either tacky or desperate (or both). Not to mention the state of Victorian finances or the fact that ambulance response times are worse than when he was first elected in 2014. The only “accomplishment” he can pedal out has been the level crossings, and a bunch of those projects made intersections worse than they were before. Plus, on balance, removing level crossings for all the other bad things is not really a good trade-off in my (and my others’) view.

I really have to question the integrity of your comments when you’re spreading blatant misinformation as above. Regardless of your political leanings, and we all have different priorities, there’s no need for it.

Mark, I believe Victorian Labor have achieved more accomplishments, like rail extension to Mernda (a rapidly growing suburb) along with duplications to Cranbourne and Melton. Whilst these projects may not add direct capacity to the network (just like level crossing removals), they prepare the network for future expansion.

I found some of the Liberal/Coalition priorities from previous elections like initial electrification of raillines whilst are necessary are often out of order because if you try to add capacity without the supporting infrastructure all you do is just create more congestion and will not provide the expected benefits

You completely missed the point of my comment but that’s fine.

I wasn’t arguing the merits of Labor’s achievements, I was talking about perceptions in the community and the fact that from what I have PERSONALLY seen so far, the campaign looks the same as 2018. I have only seen TV ads.

I have not seen a single Labor billboard where I live, how how am I telling a “blatant lie” that I personally haven’t seen those billboards around freeways, when I probably haven’t even been on a freeway in 2 years? I was talking about my own exposure to the campaign.

And in regards to Pesutto, I was talking about how that voting record is easy for opponents to exploit, as just this week an article in The Guardian argues those very points, so my point was that if he was opposition leader then his currently shiny reputation would be under more scrutiny. That’s all.

Anyway, this thread is about Box Hill and it’s been very derailed. I’m not going to get into arguments with you about your hatred for Labor, when I’m not even a Labor voter anyway, on a psephology website.

But agree with you that focussing solely on the level crossing removals without addressing the other benefits (duplications and new stations like Cobblebank) is a bad look and opens up Labor to attacks.

The reason they’ve focussed on the level crossings, rather than the duplications and new stations, is that ultimately this wasn’t about making rail transport better…

It was about getting rid of boom gates for cars. All about traffic/road users.

Level crossing removals won’t provide any improvement for public transport until:

1. A line is completely level crossing free; and
2. Metro Tunnel is completed to remove congestion from the City Loop

Only those two outcomes will free up capacity to increase the frequency of trains. In the meantime, you’re right that it’s only road users who benefit, except for rare exceptions like Kooyong & Glenhuntly Stations where tram lines cross paths with the level crossing.

Mostly agree with Trent just want to add a couple of other points with respect to level crossings
1. Agree mostly benefits rail users. Kooyong and Glen Huntly level crossing are two current instances that Trent pointed out. There is another one near Riversdale station which should be removed to make the Alemein line fully level crossing free. There is another past example near Kooyong at Gardiners station which thankfully has been removed.
2. Totally Agree about Metro Tunnel. I think MM2 is also needed to realise full benefits
3. Removing level crossing can also future proof for future expansion of the network without capacity constraints. For example, the level crossing between Huntingdale and Caulfield was a blocker for a Rowville rail. It can also prevent future seperation of metro/regional/Freight lines. For example removing rail crossings on the Melton/Sunbury line can allow for a dedicated Ballarat and Bendigo fast rail in the future. Also potentially extending the Glen Waverley line to Knox City
4. I am not convinced every minor level crossings especially in areas with little forecasted population growth like the Hurstbridge line beyond Eltham, Stony Point line beyond Baxter, Altona loop etc, Gifford Street Williamstown needs to be removed. i also made a comment on the Hawthorn thread about Spotswood.
5. We are in essence playing catch up. Sydney removed virtually all in the 1930s and until the South Morang rail extention was completed in 2012 there had not been a suburban expansion of Melbourne’s network in the post war period. The last was the Glen Waverley line and when that was extend there were no level crossings built in the new section beyond Darling.

*mostly benefits Road users i mean. Also can benefit bus users as many Bus Route especially Smart Bus Routes in the past had level crossings along the route.

The only level crossings in Sydney I know of are those on the Richmond line beyond Schofields.

Nicole has worked hard in the local community, she has worked alongside the youth in the community, trying to inspire them to live productive yet fun filled life as a role as youth pastor, before becoming core staff in Empower, a organisation which feeds some of the most vulnerable. A swing of aprox 3 to 4 percent to a candidate with her track record is well writhing the margins. As some one who’s a possible future premier one of the thing working against her is age, hopefully voters will overlook this though and see the vast experience she brings to the table.

Her ties to the megachurch Planetshakers may come back to haunt her but given what has been revealed about a lot of the other Lib candidates including in neighbouring Ringwood, she is no way nearly as bad and controversial.

I predict a Labor hold but only just. 3% is quite a buffer. It is hard to see the Liberals picking up seats with margins over 3% including the Liberal heartland seats lost in 2018.

I don’t expect a strong showing from the freedom and anti-Dan minor parties. LDP, UAP and ONP got below their statewide averages in Chisholm at the federal election.

At the Peoples Forum, no one in the Box Hill audience asked a question about Covid lockdown and Andrew Bolt was furious about that. It may show another sign that in the Eastern Suburbs anti-lockdown sentiment is not strong and people are interested in other issues

@Nimalan, I think people have gotten over pandemic politics and want to leave that in the past. Mr Barry from Redbridge mentioned the same thing on ABC.

I wrote in the Glen Waverley thread that anti-lockdown and anti-vax anger is most likely overexagerrated over there. I’d say the same thing about Box Hill too. Both have the largest Chinese-born populations. Generally, ethnic Chinese people are more conscious of Covid.

There is a very strict zero-Covid policy in China. Many Chinese-born voters have heard from their friends and relatives in China about harsh lockdowns, quarantine centres, food shortages and mass daily testing and surveillance. They may be more grateful that Victoria’s lockdowns are over and were nothing like China’s. In hindsight, they may even support the lockdowns.

Alp retain

@ Votante, fair points raised. The point i was trying to make is that everyone’s experience from the pandemic was not the same in the Eastern/North Eastern/Southern (Bayside) suburbs of Melbourne there is a more affluent demographic who could work from home etc they have more access to outdoor/green space etc so lockdowns would not have appeared as Harsh.
Also today saw Paul Hamer at the Kerrimuir booth speaking with voters. This booth was 50/50 last time is a very middle class part of the seat so made sense he chose that one.

I think Labor can hold on here. They have thrown a big effort into the campaign – especially compared to Ringwood. I wonder if some Labor MPs feel thrown under the bus.

The Libs got swings to them in Surrey Hills, especially near the railway station, indicating backlash for the Union Station rebuild and level crossing removal. However, the rest of the seat swung to Labor with particularly large swings in Blackburn and Mont Albert. Box Hill proper didn’t actually swing too much to Labor with Labor’s margins in Blackburn and Mont Albert now being around the same as Box Hill proper.

@ Dan M
Agree with you regarding Surrey Hills. I would look at three booths in particular around the Northern Fringe {Box Hill North PS, Kerrimuir and Middlefield (Old Orchard PS). This is very much middle class suburbia quite different from Central Box Hill which is socially mixed and has a large number of students/renters and recent immigrants whereas the northern 3 booths are more settled and owner occupied/bellweather for this part of Melbourne. All 3 booths had a swing to Labor. As mentioned earlier in the thread i saw Paul Hamer at Kerrimuir PS