ALP 12.1%
Incumbent MP
Jacinta Allan, since 1999.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Bendigo, and areas to the north of Bendigo, including Strathfieldsaye, Huntly and Elmore. Bendigo East includes a majority of those rural areas included in the City of Greater Bendigo, as well as parts of Loddon Shire.
History
Bendigo East has existed for two different periods: from 1904-1927, and since 1985.
The original seat was first won by an unaligned MP, but was held by the ALP from 1907 to 1927.
The new seat was won in 1985 by Michael John of the Liberal Party. He served on the Liberal frontbench from 1988, and served in the ministry for the Kennett government’s first term from 1992-1996.
In 1999, John was defeated by 25-year-old Jacinta Allan of the ALP. Allan joined the Bracks ministry in 2002, and has served on the Labor frontbench ever since, as a minister until 2010 and again since 2014.
- Vyonne McLelland-Howe (Animal Justice)
- Darin Schade (Liberal)
- Ben Mihail (One Nation)
- Evelyn Keetelaar (Family First)
- Michael James Tolhurst (Greens)
- James Laurie (Independent)
- Jacinta Allan (Labor)
Assessment
Bendigo East is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jacinta Allan | Labor | 21,693 | 50.3 | +4.1 |
| Ian Ellis | Liberal | 8,987 | 20.9 | -20.1 |
| Gaelle Broad | Nationals | 6,864 | 15.9 | +15.9 |
| Nakita Thomson | Greens | 3,465 | 8.0 | +0.8 |
| Helen Leach | Democratic Labour | 1,080 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Michael Belardinelli | Independent | 999 | 2.3 | +2.3 |
| Informal | 1,976 | 4.4 | +0.9 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jacinta Allan | Labor | 26,776 | 62.1 | +7.1 |
| Ian Ellis | Liberal | 16,332 | 37.9 | -7.1 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Polling places in the vicinity of Bendigo have been split into central, north and south, while the rural remainder has been grouped.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from 61.7% in Bendigo South to 67.8% in Bendigo North. The vote in the rural area was a perfect tie.
The National came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.3% in the north of Bendigo, up to 33.9% in the rural part of the seat.
| Voter group | NAT prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Bendigo North | 14.6 | 67.8 | 7,470 | 17.3 |
| Bendigo Central | 14.3 | 65.4 | 6,916 | 16.1 |
| Bendigo South | 19.2 | 61.7 | 4,594 | 10.7 |
| Rural | 33.9 | 50.0 | 1,635 | 3.8 |
| Pre-poll | 16.2 | 58.6 | 14,441 | 33.5 |
| Other votes | 12.6 | 63.0 | 8,032 | 18.6 |
Election results in Bendigo East at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Nationals.
There’s a few interesting seats like this that were held by the Liberals pre-1999 and have just never gone back to being Liberal more than 2 decades later.
Don’t expect this one to change hands anytime soon.
Something must’ve happened over the past 20 to 25 years. In the late 1990s, several Bendigo and Ballarat-based federal and state seats switched from Liberal to Labor and since then, Labor have retained them or their successors and now have 2PP margins of over 10% in these federal and state seats. I’m not talking about largely rural seats like Ripon. There were a few close calls like at the 2013 federal election wipeout.
Votante, I think this trend may be the result of demographic change and the increasing urbanisation of these regional towns (Ballarat and Bendigo), as the urban fringe of Melbourne slowly expands outwards.
People seeking a lifestyle ‘tree’ change and moving to these places from Melbourne also contribute to these districts transforming from swing type to Labor leaning over time.
Also a lot of public sector employment so naturally they vote for Labor who will always pay them more at taxpayer expense
Hard to believe Jacinta Allan has been in parliament since 1999.
Jacinta Allan is awful. In an ideal world, no seat would be safe and, thus, the standard of local reps would be much higher.
The demographic changes in.Bendigo and Ballarat. And a lot of Geelpnh
Geelong. Make these seat secure for Labor. Polwarth is also changing with the overflow of the surf coast. If Joe Helper was still the mp Ripon would be alp held on current.boundaries Boundary.changes improve the alp vote here by almost.3% this seat based on pattern of small swings to.labor over the last. 2 elections will be won by the alp.candidate
Interesting the Nats aren’t running a candidate here unlike in 2018 – they almost outpolled the Libs.
Surely this would be a better area to put their energy in the long term compared to Bass which is basically outskirts suburban Melbourne.
I strongly suspect Jacinta Allan will be the next premier I don’t really see anybody else except Ben Carroll who will be the most likely be elected deputy.
It has been sometime sense a Premier has not been from Melbourne.
Denis Napthine, 2013-2014, was from the country.
Ah yes I completely forgot about him
That was South-west coast electorate I believe
Before Napthine, you had to go all the way back to Sir Henry Bolte (Liberal, 1955-72), for a rural Premier of Victoria.
He represented the abolished district of Hampden, much of which is now the district of Ripon.
Jacinta Allan is one of the class of 1999, her election to Bendigo East was an upset and helped terminate the Kennett area. The seat was previously Liberal held. She is only one left from the class of 1999. Bendigo East was notionally Liberal when created in 1985 based on the 1982 result. Today, it is a Safe Labor seat and is represented by a Labor premier. JA is the first Labor premier from Regional Victoria since Edmond Hogan
@nimalan aside from Dennis Napthine
@ John yes but Napthine was not a Labor Premier. I said JA is the first Labor Premier from Regional VIC since Hogan.
@nimalan right didnt read that part. bendigo is basically a satellite of melbourne these days anyway
If there was any backlash in the regions because of the Commonwealth Games cancellation it will now be cancelled out by having a Premier from the regions.
BREAKING: for the first time in seven years, Labor and the Coalition are tied on a two-party-preferred basis. The last time this happened was in 2017.
Source: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/victorian-voters-vent-anger-at-allan-govt-in-shock-poll-result/news-story/c397c3fb09084fac8b1e36bc3c3e48a7?amp&nk=265d7ce1d1ed1ce56376cdbec7d93ea2-1722807569
@np wrong they were tied back in may
@John I’m quoting the Herald Sun. I do recall them being ahead in April or May but I wasn’t sure. This morning it was reported on Sunrise as the closest Victorian poll in seven years.
It was the same poll that recorded 50/50 in may
@John oh. Well in that case I have no idea where the news is getting that info from.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Victorian_state_election link
@John no I know the polls are on Wikipedia but I don’t know why the news thinks the last time it was even was in 2017.
Former Victorian Liberal president Michael Kroger has stated in an opinion piece for Sky News Australia that he thinks Jacinta Allan will be dumped as Premier before the next state election in 2026 as she is “too tainted by Daniel Andrews”.
Yesterday Sky News host James Macpherson also stated that Tim Pallas was “the worst Treasurer in Victorian history” (though this has basis to it as Victoria is in massive debt at the moment).