Bendigo East – Victoria 2022

ALP 12.1%

Incumbent MP
Jacinta Allan, since 1999.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Bendigo, and areas to the north of Bendigo, including Strathfieldsaye, Huntly and Elmore. Bendigo East includes a majority of those rural areas included in the City of Greater Bendigo, as well as parts of Loddon Shire.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Bendigo East has existed for two different periods: from 1904-1927, and since 1985.

The original seat was first won by an unaligned MP, but was held by the ALP from 1907 to 1927.

The new seat was won in 1985 by Michael John of the Liberal Party. He served on the Liberal frontbench from 1988, and served in the ministry for the Kennett government’s first term from 1992-1996.

In 1999, John was defeated by 25-year-old Jacinta Allan of the ALP. Allan joined the Bracks ministry in 2002, and has served on the Labor frontbench ever since, as a minister until 2010 and again since 2014.

Candidates

Assessment
Bendigo East is a safe Labor seat.

2018 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jacinta Allan Labor 21,693 50.3 +4.1
Ian Ellis Liberal 8,987 20.9 -20.1
Gaelle Broad Nationals 6,864 15.9 +15.9
Nakita Thomson Greens 3,465 8.0 +0.8
Helen Leach Democratic Labour 1,080 2.5 +2.5
Michael Belardinelli Independent 999 2.3 +2.3
Informal 1,976 4.4 +0.9

2018 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jacinta Allan Labor 26,776 62.1 +7.1
Ian Ellis Liberal 16,332 37.9 -7.1

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas. Polling places in the vicinity of Bendigo have been split into central, north and south, while the rural remainder has been grouped.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from 61.7% in Bendigo South to 67.8% in Bendigo North. The vote in the rural area was a perfect tie.

The National came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.3% in the north of Bendigo, up to 33.9% in the rural part of the seat.

Voter group NAT prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Bendigo North 14.6 67.8 7,470 17.3
Bendigo Central 14.3 65.4 6,916 16.1
Bendigo South 19.2 61.7 4,594 10.7
Rural 33.9 50.0 1,635 3.8
Pre-poll 16.2 58.6 14,441 33.5
Other votes 12.6 63.0 8,032 18.6

Election results in Bendigo East at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Nationals.

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27 COMMENTS

  1. There’s a few interesting seats like this that were held by the Liberals pre-1999 and have just never gone back to being Liberal more than 2 decades later.

    Don’t expect this one to change hands anytime soon.

  2. Something must’ve happened over the past 20 to 25 years. In the late 1990s, several Bendigo and Ballarat-based federal and state seats switched from Liberal to Labor and since then, Labor have retained them or their successors and now have 2PP margins of over 10% in these federal and state seats. I’m not talking about largely rural seats like Ripon. There were a few close calls like at the 2013 federal election wipeout.

  3. Votante, I think this trend may be the result of demographic change and the increasing urbanisation of these regional towns (Ballarat and Bendigo), as the urban fringe of Melbourne slowly expands outwards.

    People seeking a lifestyle ‘tree’ change and moving to these places from Melbourne also contribute to these districts transforming from swing type to Labor leaning over time.

  4. Also a lot of public sector employment so naturally they vote for Labor who will always pay them more at taxpayer expense

  6. Jacinta Allan is awful. In an ideal world, no seat would be safe and, thus, the standard of local reps would be much higher.

  8. Geelong. Make these seat secure for Labor. Polwarth is also changing with the overflow of the surf coast. If Joe Helper was still the mp Ripon would be alp held on current.boundaries Boundary.changes improve the alp vote here by almost.3% this seat based on pattern of small swings to.labor over the last. 2 elections will be won by the alp.candidate

  9. Interesting the Nats aren’t running a candidate here unlike in 2018 – they almost outpolled the Libs.

    Surely this would be a better area to put their energy in the long term compared to Bass which is basically outskirts suburban Melbourne.

  10. I strongly suspect Jacinta Allan will be the next premier I don’t really see anybody else except Ben Carroll who will be the most likely be elected deputy.

  15. Before Napthine, you had to go all the way back to Sir Henry Bolte (Liberal, 1955-72), for a rural Premier of Victoria.

    He represented the abolished district of Hampden, much of which is now the district of Ripon.

  16. Jacinta Allan is one of the class of 1999, her election to Bendigo East was an upset and helped terminate the Kennett area. The seat was previously Liberal held. She is only one left from the class of 1999. Bendigo East was notionally Liberal when created in 1985 based on the 1982 result. Today, it is a Safe Labor seat and is represented by a Labor premier. JA is the first Labor premier from Regional Victoria since Edmond Hogan

  18. @ John yes but Napthine was not a Labor Premier. I said JA is the first Labor Premier from Regional VIC since Hogan.

  20. If there was any backlash in the regions because of the Commonwealth Games cancellation it will now be cancelled out by having a Premier from the regions.

  23. @John I’m quoting the Herald Sun. I do recall them being ahead in April or May but I wasn’t sure. This morning it was reported on Sunrise as the closest Victorian poll in seven years.

  27. @John no I know the polls are on Wikipedia but I don’t know why the news thinks the last time it was even was in 2017.

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