LIB 0.7%
Incumbent MP
Jordan Crugnale (Labor), since 2018.
Geography
Eastern Victoria. Bass covers regional areas to the southeast of Melbourne, including areas on the eastern side of Western Port. Bass covers Bass Coast Shire and southern parts of Cardinia Shire and the City of Casey. It stretches from Pearcedale to the rural towns of Lang Lang and Wonthaggi and the coastal tourist centres of Phillip Island and Inverloch.
Redistribution
Changes were made to the Bass boundary on the north-western edge, taking in Pearcedale from Hastings and losing Officer South and Pakenham to the new seat of Pakenham. These changes flipped the seat from a Labor margin of 2.4% to a Liberal margin of 0.7%.
Bass was created at the 2002 election, replacing the former seat of Gippsland West.
Gippsland West had been held by Kennett government minister Alan Brown from 1992 until late 1996, when he resigned to serve as Victoria’s Agent General.
The 1997 by-election was won by Susan Davies, an independent candidate who had previously been a member of the ALP. Davies supported the new Bracks minority government.
Davies contested the notional Liberal seat of Bass in 2002, as did Liberal MLC Ken Smith, whose South-Eastern province had been abolished in the redistribution.
Davies polled 21.8%, falling into third place, and Smith held the seat with a slim 0.6% margin. Smith increased his margin to 5.5% in 2006, and further again to 12.6% in 2010.
Ken Smith was elected Speaker of the Legislative Assembly following the 2010 election. Smith’s Speakership was difficult in a chamber governed by a very slim coalition majority, and his position was constantly challenged by the Labor opposition. He resigned as Speaker in early 2014 after coming into conflict with rebel Liberal MP Geoff Shaw.
Smith retired at the 2014 election, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate Brian Paynter. Paynter held the seat for one term, and lost in 2018 to Labor’s Jordan Crugnale.
- Brett Tessari (Nationals)
- Mark O’Neill (Democratic Labour)
- Marcus Munday (Freedom Party)
- Martin Verhagen (Family First)
- Jordan Crugnale (Labor)
- Elly Mousellis (Animal Justice)
- Aaron Brown (Liberal)
- Meg Edwards (Independent)
- Callum Bugbird (Greens)
- Jeni Jobe (Independent)
Assessment
Bass is a very marginal seat. While redistribution calculations have shifted the seat into the Liberal column, the new sitting Labor MP would have a good chance of re-election, particularly if Labor’s polling remains strong.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Brian Paynter | Liberal | 20,315 | 41.0 | -4.4 | 43.5 |
| Jordan Crugnale | Labor | 19,954 | 40.2 | +10.9 | 36.7 |
| David Arnault | Greens | 2,821 | 5.7 | -3.4 | 6.1 |
| Clare Le Serve | Independent | 2,212 | 4.5 | -6.3 | 5.2 |
| Frank Ripa | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 2,011 | 4.1 | +4.1 | 3.7 |
| Ross Mcphee | Democratic Labour | 1,288 | 2.6 | +2.6 | 1.8 |
| Ron Bauer | Independent | 603 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.4 |
| Kate Lempriere | Independent | 385 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.5 |
| Others | 1.0 | ||||
| Informal | 3,522 | 6.6 | +1.2 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Brian Paynter | Liberal | 23,607 | 47.6 | -6.9 | 50.7 |
| Jordan Crugnale | Labor | 25,982 | 52.4 | +6.9 | 49.3 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.
The Liberal Party topped the poll in the north-east (57.2%) and north-west (52.3%), while Labor polled 57.4% in the south.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 42.6 | 8,347 | 24.7 |
| North-West | 52.3 | 5,384 | 16.0 |
| North-East | 57.2 | 2,751 | 8.2 |
| Pre-poll | 53.3 | 13,465 | 39.9 |
| Other votes | 52.6 | 3,784 | 11.2 |
Election results in Bass at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
We’ll see what happens but since that article Labor’s had some good results in the postals in these two seats. And very few absents (which will favour Labor) have been counted yet.
At 83.9% counted and probably no more than 3-4k remaining votes. Latest postal batch split 167-131 Lab (56.0%), Absents 531-430 Lab (55.3%). Current Labor lead of 285. Remaining vote should consist of probably half of absents (which Labor will win) and then the Liberals not only need to win, they need to make up a gap of 500+, and that means they need to flip late postals/prepolls to being hugely in their favour. I don’t see how that’s going to happen so barring some freak booth correction or similar it looks like Labor have secured this.
Yes alp retain
Final preference distribution is fascinating with preferences flying everywhere. Jordan Crugnale should give a special shout out to the Freedom Party – she got over 50% of their preferences and 30% of the Nats. The Nats running probably saw Crugnale win through leakage alone. The donkey vote would have got her over the line.
A lot of targetted pork barrelling in Bass – lots of openings in the last few months. Watch the next for where Labor think they can hold on in 2026!
Either this or the federal division need to be renamed to avoid name duplication, more likely this then the other
They are in different states. The only people who even notice are election obsessives. Not a real problem.