Incumbent MLCs
- Georgie Crozier (Liberal), since 2010
- Philip Dalidakis (Labor), since 2014
- David Davis (Liberal), since 2006. Previously MLC for East Yarra 1996-2006
- Margaret Fitzherbert (Liberal), since 2014
- Sue Pennicuik (Greens), since 2006
Geography
| Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin |
| Albert Park | ALP 3.0% | Caulfield | LIB 4.9% | Oakleigh | ALP 8.2% |
| Bentleigh | ALP 0.8% | Hawthorn | LIB 8.6% | Prahran | GRN 0.4% vs LIB |
| Brighton | LIB 9.8% | Kew | LIB 10.6% | Sandringham | LIB 7.3% |
| Burwood | LIB 3.2% | Malvern | LIB 16.3% |
Seven out of eleven seats in Southern Metropolitan are held by the Liberal Party, with three held by Labor and one by the Greens.
History
The Southern Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.
In 2006, the ALP and Liberal Party each won two seats, and the fifth seat was won by the Greens.
In 2010, the Liberal Party won a third seat at the expense of the ALP. The 2010 result was repeated in 2014, with the Liberal Party holding three seats, while Labor and the Greens held one seat each.
2014 result
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Quota |
| Liberal | 176,945 | 42.7 | -8.9 | 2.5632 |
| Labor | 104,365 | 25.2 | -0.1 | 1.5118 |
| Greens | 64,364 | 15.5 | -0.8 | 0.9324 |
| Liberal Democrats | 19,075 | 4.6 | +4.6 | 0.2763 |
| Sex Party | 10,062 | 2.4 | -0.7 | 0.1458 |
| Democratic Labour Party | 8,971 | 2.2 | +0.4 | 0.1300 |
| Animal Justice | 6,829 | 1.6 | +1.7 | 0.0989 |
| Cyclists Party | 4,749 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 0.0688 |
| Palmer United Party | 3,753 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.0544 |
| Voluntary Euthanasia | 3,271 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.0474 |
| Australian Christians | 2,854 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.0413 |
| Family First | 2,708 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.0392 |
| Others | 6,250 | 1.5 | ||
| Informal | 10,912 | 2.6 |
Preference flows
On primary votes, the Liberal Party won two seats, and Labor won one.
We can fast forward to the last ten candidates running for the last two seats:
- Sue Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.9351 quotas
- Margaret Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.5620
- Erik Locke (ALP) – 0.5072
- Craig Bonsor (LDP) – 0.2774
- Francesca Collins (SXP) – 0.2153
- Vince Stefano (DLP) – 0.1370
- Nyree Walshe (AJP) – 0.1203
- Faliana Lee (CHR) – 0.0913
- Richard Bowen (CYC) – 0.0846
- Dwayne Singleton (PUP) – 0.0555
Palmer United preferences mostly flowed to the Liberal Party, pushing them further ahead of Labor:
- Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.9357
- Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.6124
- Locke (ALP) – 0.5079
- Bonsor (LDP) – 0.2776
- Collins (SXP) – 0.2161
- Stefano (DLP) – 0.1372
- Walshe (AJP) – 0.1206
- Lee (CHR) – 0.0914
- Bowen (CYC) – 0.0848
The Cyclists Party’s preferences favoured the Sex Party:
- Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.9433
- Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.6146
- Locke (ALP) – 0.5100
- Bonsor (LDP) – 0.2783
- Collins (SXP) – 0.2695
- Stefano (DLP) – 0.1375
- Walshe (AJP) – 0.1351
- Lee (CHR) – 0.0917
Australian Christians preferences flowed to the DLP:
- Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.9439
- Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.6170
- Locke (ALP) – 0.5106
- Bonsor (LDP) – 0.2796
- Collins (SXP) – 0.2697
- Stefano (DLP) – 0.2196
- Walshe (AJP) – 0.1356
The Animal Justice Party favoured the Sex Party, pushing them ahead of the LDP:
- Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.9511
- Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.6186
- Locke (ALP) – 0.5122
- Collins (SXP) – 0.3742
- Bonsor (LDP) – 0.2803
- Stefano (DLP) – 0.2332
The Democratic Labour Party’s preferences pushed the LDP back in front of the Sex Party:
- Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.9536
- Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.6699
- Locke (ALP) – 0.5141
- Bonsor (LDP) – 0.4511
- Collins (SXP) – 0.3750
The Sex Party’s preferences pushed the Greens over quota. Pennicuik had a small surplus, which mostly flowed to Labor:
- Pennicuik (GRN) – 1.0000
- Locke (ALP) – 0.7454
- Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.6785
- Bonsor (LDP) – 0.5135
The LDP was excluded, and their preferences elected the Liberal candidate to the fifth seat:
- Fitzherbert (LIB) – 1.1415
- Pennicuik (GRN) – 1.0000
- Locke (ALP) – 0.7827
- Bonsor (LDP) – 0.0011
Candidates
- A – Liberal
- David Davis
- Georgie Crozier
- Margaret Fitzherbert
- B – Catheryn Lewis (Socialists)
- C – Avi Yemini (Australian Liberty Alliance)
- D – Ben Moore (Health Australia)
- E – Mark Hillard (Aussie Battler)
- F – Sue Pennicuik (Greens)
- G – Jane Morris (Voluntary Euthanasia)
- H – Nicole Bourman (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
- I – Matthew Perriam (Hudson for Northern Victoria)
- J – Labor
- Philip Dalidakis
- Nina Taylor
- Judith Armstrong
- K – Joel van der Horst (Democratic Labour)
- L – Clifford Hayes (Sustainable Australia)
- M – Jill Mellon-Robertson (Reason)
- N – Nikki Nicholls (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
- O – Ben Schultz (Animal Justice)
- P – Robert Kennedy (Liberal Democrats)
- Q – Kim Guest (Transport Matters)
- R – Nicola Clow (Country Party)
Assessment
Labor would be hoping to win back a second seat, either from the Liberal Party or the Greens.
Regional breakdown
The Liberal Party topped the primary vote in Southern Metropolitan region. The Liberal Party topped the primary vote in ten out of eleven districts, while Labor came first in Oakleigh.
The Liberal vote was highest in the spine running north-south through the seat, doing worst in the two westernmost districts (Albert Park and Prahran) while they also did less well in the easternmost districts.
Labor did best in the eastern seats of Bentleigh and Oakleigh.
The Greens vote was highest in the seats closest to the centre of Melbourne.
Results of the 2014 Victorian upper house election in the Southern Metropolitan region
Labor would ideally want Liberals 3rd seat, I’d be expecting Greens to reach quota this time with a 18-19% vote, Sue Pennicuik has held that since 2006. It’d either be 3-1-1 or 2-2-1
This and Northern Metro are the only regions where the Greens retaining their upper house seats is just about assured.
I live in Albert Park District. The shaded map is interesting, well done.
Some Liberal and Labor MALE staff members at local electorate offices need to learn some manner on the phone too.
It’s worth noting that the confusion factor of having the LDP well above the Liberals on the ballot in a way, secured a win for the 3rd Liberal (by keeping other minors out of the race and then delivering preferences to the Liberals). It’s possible that a minor party candidate could take the last spot from the Liberals on good GTV flows, but this looks to arguably be the least interesting Upper House campaign. The lower house seats are all pretty safe too, with the exception of Prahran and Bentleigh.
There is an Albert Park District Candidates Forum on tonight (29 Oct 18) at the Alex Theatre, 135 Fitzroy St, St Kilda (opposite St Kilda Station) from 6.30 pm. Just turn up and it free according to the leaflet I read today.
I think the same five will be re-elected.
I early voted on 12 Nov 18 but only for 7 candidates in the Legislative Council (so called Upper House). My vote was 1. Pennicuik, then the lead candidate for 2. Hinch, 3. AJP, 4. Reason, 5. Shooters, followed by 6. Dalidakis (ALP) and 7. Crozier (Lib).
In Victoria you only had to vote for 5 or more candidates of your choice which raises the question why have above the line voting at all?
Before the 24 Nov 18 election Southern Metropolitan had 3 Liberals, 1 Labor and 1 Green in the Legislative Council. As at 6.30 pm Sunday the Liberals and Labor have about 2.2 quotas each while the Greens have about 0.75 of a quota. This looks like one sitting Liberal is gone (Fitzherbert was 3rd on the ticket I think)) and the ALP will increase from 1 to 2 MLC’s. Fitzherbert has an electorate office in Port Melbourne and a smart alec staffer called Josh. He will be out of a job too.
So far with counting well advance Australian Liberty Alliance has 0.03 of a quota in Southern Metro. I learnt tonight that fight gym business owner Avi Yemini is the brother of anti child abuse activist Manny Waks who is the real hero.
Philip Dalidakis was dumped from the Andrews Labor ministry today.
The long serving moderate Greens MLC Sue Pennicuik is gone and replaced by the Sustainable Australia candidate Clifford Hayes while a Caulfield based ALP candidate Nina Taylor has been elected replacing Margaret Fitzherbert.
Pennicuik was a local Elwood resident while Fitzherbert has an office in Port Melbourne. Not much local representation now in Port Phillip (Albert Park District) other than the incumbent ALP MLA Martin Foley.
There is a YouTube clip were Clifford Hayes is at a Melbourne CBD intersection talking about planning and over development. He is a former Bayside councillor and Mayor too. He seems to be more anti Labor (I hate the ALP spelling of labour) than anti Liberal based on what he said in the short clip.