LIB 8.4%
Incumbent MP
Kim Wells, since 2014. Previously member for Wantirna 1992-2002, member for Scoresby 2002-2014.
Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. Rowville covers the suburbs of Lysterfield, Lysterfield South, Rowville, Rowville East, Scoresby and parts of Knoxfield and Ferntree Gully. Rowville covers southern parts of the City of Knox, and a small part of the City of Casey.
History
Rowville is a successor seat to Scoresby.
The district of Scoresby was most recently created at the 2002 election. It had previously existed from 1945 to 1976, when it was always held by the Liberal Party.
Scoresby was won in 2002 by Liberal MP Kim Wells, whose seat of Wantirna had been abolished in the recent redistribution. Wells was re-elected in 2006 and 2010, and again as member for Rowville in 2014.
Candidates
- Natasha Sharma (Greens)
- Muhammad Shahbaz (Labor)
- Kim Wells (Liberal)
- Joe Cossari (Independent)
Assessment
Rowville is a reasonably safe Liberal seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kim Wells | Liberal | 18,758 | 53.8 | -3.5 |
| Tamika Hicks | Labor | 12,419 | 35.6 | +5.7 |
| Tim Wise | Greens | 2,566 | 7.4 | +0.8 |
| Leanne Price | Rise Up Australia | 1,096 | 3.1 | +3.1 |
| Informal | 2,042 | 5.5 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kim Wells | Liberal | 20,363 | 58.4 | -4.7 |
| Tamika Hicks | Labor | 14,499 | 41.6 | +4.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Rowville have been divided into three areas: east, north and south. The south includes Rowville, the north includes Scoresby, and the east includes Lysterfield.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.5% in the north-west to 59.5% in the east.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 55.7 | 9,635 | 27.7 |
| East | 59.5 | 9,129 | 26.2 |
| North-West | 55.5 | 3,503 | 10.1 |
| Other votes | 60.6 | 4,968 | 14.3 |
| Pre-poll | 60.4 | 7,604 | 21.8 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Rowville at the 2014 Victorian state election
Liberal retain but could become a Bellwether in near future Demographic changes and the next redistribution will help that, This is in the (Correct me if im wrong) Division of Higgins, Higgins is trending more progressive and Higgins at a federal level and this seat at a state level may also poll a High Green vote, But it all depends where the preferences go
Rowville is nowhere near Higgins (which is covered by parts of Malvern, Prahran, and Oakleigh). It occupies the southern third of Aston.
Rowville is quite under quota but unless it goes south across Dandenong Creek, this should stay Liberal. The more likely scenario is moving north into Ferntree Gully, given that Mount Waverley, Bayswater, Box Hill, Forest Hill, Ringwood, Croydon, Ferntree Gully, Rowville, Monbulk and Evelyn all border each other but combined are over one quota short. Probably will see one of these seats abolished and then the other seats will soak up the rest.
KrispyNachos is spot on. Either Rowville or more likely, Ferntree Gully, will be abolished at the next redistribution and Rowville will move north.
Either way, this area will be safe Liberal.
https://www.facebook.com/DrShahbazforRowville/
Labor’s candidate for Rowville
Lysterfield South is an odd inclusion in this seat. Stranger still, it doesn’t have its own booth?
PRP: Ferntree Gully would be a good candidate for abolition, in which you would see Bayswater and Rowville take a lot of the territory, with Ringwood taking up more of Bayswater ND moving relatively south. You’d probably have Forest Hill move a bit more north too.
My prediction: Easy Liberal hold, no matter the name.