ALP 7.7%
Incumbent MP
Ben Carroll, since 2012.
Geography
Western Melbourne. Niddrie covers Airport West, Avondale Heights, Keilor, Keilor East, Keilor Park and parts of Aberfeldie, Essendon and Taylors Lakes. Niddrie covers parts of the City of Brimbank and the City of Moonee Valley.
History
Niddrie has existed as an electoral district since 1976, and has always been held by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1976 by Jack Simpson. He served as a minister in the Labor state government from 1982 to 1985, and retired in 1988.
Simpson was replaced in 1988 by Bob Sercombe. Sercombe served as ALP deputy leader from 1993 to 1994. He held the seat until 1996, when he resigned to run for the federal seat of Maribyrnong. He held Maribyrnong until 2007, when he retired in the face of a strong preselection challenge.
Rob Hulls won the seat of Niddrie at the 1996 state election. He became a minister following the 1999 state election and became Deputy Premier in 2007 upon the retirement of Steve Bracks and his Deputy Premier, John Thwaites.
Rob Hulls retired in 2012, and the subsequent by-election was easily won by Labor candidate Ben Carroll. Carroll was re-elected in 2014.
Candidates
- Ben Reeson (Liberal)
- Rebbecca Primmer (Animal Justice)
- Jean-Luke Desmarais (Greens)
- Ben Carroll (Labor)
Assessment
Niddrie is a reasonably safe Labor seat.
2014 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Ben Carroll | Labor | 17,342 | 46.2 | +2.8 |
Rebecca Gauci Maurici | Liberal | 14,101 | 37.5 | +0.6 |
Sarah Roberts | Greens | 3,045 | 8.1 | 0.0 |
Andrea Surace | Independent | 1,002 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
Paddy Dewan | Voice For The West | 892 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
Andrew Gunter | Independent | 478 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
John Warner | Australian Christians | 394 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
Appollo Yianni | Independent | 323 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
Informal | 2,572 | 6.4 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Ben Carroll | Labor | 21,686 | 57.7 | +3.2 |
Rebecca Gauci Maurici | Liberal | 15,891 | 42.3 | -3.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Niddrie have been divided into four areas: Central, North, South and East.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.2% in the east to 61.1% in the south-west.
Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
South-West | 61.1 | 7,353 | 19.6 |
North-West | 55.1 | 6,529 | 17.4 |
East | 53.2 | 5,458 | 14.5 |
Other votes | 58.8 | 5,301 | 14.1 |
Pre-poll | 59.2 | 12,936 | 34.4 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Niddrie at the 2014 Victorian state election
The panel on the sidebar has Oakleigh listed as #47 and #48 instead of this seat (Niddrie).
My prediction: Labor hold.