LIB 4.6%
Incumbent MP
Michael Gidley, since 2010.
Geography
Eastern Melbourne. The electorate covers most of Mount Waverley and Glen Waverley. The entire electorate lies in the northern part of the City of Monash.
History
Mount Waverley was created prior to the 2002 election. Based on 1999 election results, Mount Waverley had a notional Liberal margin of 9.1%.
At the 2002 election, the seat was won by the ALP’s Maxine Morand with a 2.3% margin. In 2006 her margin was cut to 0.3%.
At the 2010 election, Morand was defeated by Liberal candidate Michael Gidley. Gidley was re-elected in 2014.
Candidates
- Matt Fregon (Labor)
- Michael Gidley (Liberal)
- Justin McCarthy (Greens)
Assessment
Mount Waverley is a marginal Liberal seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Gidley | Liberal | 18,357 | 51.2 | -1.4 |
| Jennifer Yang | Labor | 13,184 | 36.7 | +3.3 |
| Perky Raj Khangure | Greens | 3,432 | 9.6 | +2.0 |
| Stephen Chong Zheng | Australian Christians | 915 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Informal | 1,422 | 3.8 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Gidley | Liberal | 19,489 | 54.6 | -4.0 |
| Jennifer Yang | Labor | 16,211 | 45.4 | +4.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mount Waverley have been divided into three parts: East, South and West.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.3% in the west to 54.4% in the east.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 51.3 | 8,118 | 22.6 |
| East | 54.4 | 6,986 | 19.5 |
| South | 54.0 | 5,100 | 14.2 |
| Other votes | 53.1 | 6,179 | 17.2 |
| Pre-poll | 57.7 | 9,505 | 26.5 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Mount Waverley at the 2014 Victorian state election
Safer than the margin indicates. I recall seeing Gidley around Pinewood quite a few times and considering he beat the now ALP Chisholm candidate, I think his personal vote is high enough that he will retain the seat for the Libs so long as he contests the seat. Libs would need to be destroyed in a 2002 type election for this to switch to the ALP while he is the member.
Just another eastern Melbourne seat, Liberal retain
My prediction: Likely Liberal hold.
Very surprised – underestimated the number of swinging voters here, especially given that high Liberal primary in 2014. Doesn’t yet look like a guaranteed gain by the ALP with the pre-polls coming in cutting back that margin, but still amazing.
I imagine since this electorate (alongside Box Hill, another one that had a huge swing) fit inside the federal electorate of Chisholm that it may be an easy win for the ALP in that contest.