ALP 12.9%
Incumbent MP
Gabrielle Williams, since 2014.
Geography
Southeastern Melbourne. Dandenong covers parts of the City of Casey and the City of Greater Dandenong, specifically the suburbs of Dandenong, Dandenong South, Doveton and Eumemmerring and parts of Dandenong North, Endeavour Hills, Noble Park and Noble Park South.
History
Dandenong has existed as an electoral district continuously since 1904. For the first half of the 20th century, Dandenong was dominated by the Liberal Party and its predecessors. The ALP only won the seat twice, in 1929 and 1952. The ALP won the seat off the Liberal Party in 1969, and have held the seat ever since.
The seat was won in 1992 by John Pandazopoulos. He served as a minister in the Bracks government from 1999 to 2006, and retired in 2014.
Labor’s Gabrielle Williams won Dandenong in 2014.
Candidates
- Gabrielle Williams (Labor)
- Rhonda Garad (Greens)
- Virosh Perera (Liberal)
- Afroz Ahmed (Transport Matters)
Assessment
Dandenong is a safe Labor seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gabrielle Williams | Labor | 17,891 | 52.8 | +1.6 |
| Joanna Palatsides | Liberal | 9,809 | 29.0 | -0.1 |
| John Gulzari | Greens | 2,611 | 7.7 | -0.8 |
| Noelle Walker | Family First | 2,097 | 6.2 | +1.7 |
| Carlton John King | Rise Up Australia | 950 | 2.8 | +2.8 |
| Dale Anthony Key | Independent | 500 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Informal | 3,064 | 8.3 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gabrielle Williams | Labor | 21,389 | 62.9 | -1.2 |
| Joanna Palatsides | Liberal | 12,628 | 37.1 | +1.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Dandenong have been divided into three areas: east, north-west and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 62% in the east to 66.5% in the south-west.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 62.8 | 7,942 | 23.5 |
| South-West | 66.5 | 6,842 | 20.2 |
| East | 62.0 | 6,258 | 18.5 |
| Other votes | 61.8 | 5,227 | 15.4 |
| Pre-poll | 61.1 | 7,589 | 22.4 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Dandenong at the 2014 Victorian state election
There seems to be a common trend of parties to the right of the Liberals doing best in these “morgage belt” safe Labor seats.
Is it just because the Liberals barely campaign so there’s a vacuum on the right, or something else?
Even out here, the Monash Freeway is a pretty clear social divide. Endeavour Hills and parts of Dandenong North are quite middle class, the rest is solid Labor.
During the Kennett era, this seat was further to the east and more marginal. As strange as it seems in hindsight, there was genuine talk that both Dandenong-based seats were vulnerable to the Liberals in 1999.
Bennee,
It is a combination of the Liberals not campaigning as if it was a marginal also some of these seats have large migrant communities as well as working class that tends to be socially conservative.
Virosh Perera is the Liberal candidate for Dandenong.
Safe Labor retain.
My prediction: Easy Labor hold.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this had a ~5% swing to Labor. Williams’ debut election underperformed her federal counterparts, but she’s had a strong four years. Wouldn’t be surprised if there are a lot more 70s on that booth map this time around.