ALP 2.3%
Incumbent MP
Jude Perera, since 2002.
Geography
Southern Melbourne. Cranbourne covers the suburbs of Cranbourne, Cranbourne East, Cranbourne North, Cranbourne West, Botanic Ridge, Junction Village and parts of Clyde, Clyde North, Devon Meadows, Lynbrook and Lyndhurst. The entire electorate is contained within the City of Casey.
History
Cranbourne was first created as an electoral district for the 1992 election. It was first won in 1992 by the Liberal Party’s Gary Rowe. He was re-elected in 1996 and 1999.
Prior to the 2002 election, the redistribution redraw the boundaries to make it much more favourable to the ALP. The margin shifted from 5.7% for the Liberal Party to 1.6% for the ALP. The ALP’s Jude Perera gained a 9.2% swing, winning the seat off Rowe.
Perera has been re-elected three times.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Jude Perera is not running for re-election.
- Susan Jakobi (Independent)
- Norman Fosberry (Independent)
- Pauline Richards (Labor)
- Tarlochan Singh (Transport Matters)
- Jason Soultanidis (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
- Edward Sok (Democratic Labour)
- Ravi Ragupathy (Independent)
- Ann-Marie Hermans (Liberal)
- Jake Tilton (Greens)
Assessment
Cranbourne is a very marginal seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jude Perera | Labor | 17,365 | 43.4 | +1.4 |
| Geoff Ablett | Liberal | 16,536 | 41.3 | +0.9 |
| Nagaraj Nayak | Greens | 1,668 | 4.2 | -2.7 |
| Laith Graham | Sex Party | 1,110 | 2.8 | +2.6 |
| Jonathan Willie Eli | Rise Up Australia | 995 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Pamela Keenan | Family First | 979 | 2.4 | -1.6 |
| Rosemary Blake | Independent | 824 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Rania Michael | Australian Christians | 560 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Informal | 2,810 | 6.6 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jude Perera | Labor | 20,954 | 52.3 | +1.3 |
| Geoff Ablett | Liberal | 19,083 | 47.7 | -1.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Cranbourne have been divided into central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 50.1% in the south-west to 57.3% in the north-east.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 57.3 | 5,688 | 14.2 |
| South-East | 55.2 | 5,609 | 14.0 |
| South-West | 50.1 | 5,622 | 14.0 |
| North-West | 56.1 | 4,844 | 12.1 |
| Other votes | 53.4 | 7,321 | 18.3 |
| Pre-poll | 47.6 | 10,953 | 27.4 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Cranbourne at the 2014 Victorian state election
Evidence of the Victorian Libs drift to the religious right – preselecting the former Family First candidate.
I can see Labor holding here, they will have a harder task in the neighboring seats of Carrum and Narre Warren North and even Narre Warren South.
In the long run I feel that this seat will move towards Labor rather than stay a true marginal.
My guess 53-47 Labor
L96, I think Cranbourne’s long term future will depend on redistributions. If it stays where it is, I agree it will probably become stronger for Labor. But if it pushes south into the rural parts of Casey (where it was before 2002), it will be a more naturally Liberal seat. The Libs held it easily in 1999 when they lost office.
I agree Carrum is trending Liberal (compare 1992/1996 with 2010), but I’m not sure why you think the Narre Warren seats are the same?
I think Carrum should be more Labor than the last state election suggests. Federal results would make it pretty safe and the new Labor MP seems to be getting some good results there with upgrades to schools and the like.
As for Cranbourne – the Libs had a much better candidate last time – the local mayor who also happened to be a pretty famous footballer (the brother of god for the Melburnians out there). The Lib candidate this time has a far lower profile, which wouldn’t help the Libs hopes for this seat. There’s a retiring Labor MP, but I’m not sure he will take much of a personal vote with him.
We’re still four and a half months out, but if an election were today I’d be pretty confident predicting a Labor hold.
The Liberals are certainly trying to porkbarrel though – announcing they’d support an extension of the train line to Clyde is one of many examples.
My prediction: Likely Labor hold, barring a strong swing to the Liberals in the southeastern marginals.
Is it just me but does Susan Jakobi’s HTV make her sound like a white supremacist crossed with a NRA rep?
Is that sort of thing likely to get much of a vote?