ALP 27.8%
Incumbent MP
Frank McGuire, since 2011.
Geography
Northern Melbourne. Broadmeadows is mostly contained within Hume council, along with a small part of Moreland council, covering the suburbs of Broadmeadows, Campbellfield, Coolaroo, Dallas, Fawkner, Jacana, Meadow Heights and Somerton and parts of Glenroy, Roxburgh Park and Westmeadows.
History
Broadmeadows was first created at the 1955 election, and has been held by the ALP continuously since 1962.
The seat was first won in 1955 by the Liberal Party’s Harry Kane. He held the seat until his death in 1962.
The ensuing by-election was won by the ALP’s John Wilton. Wilton held the seat from 1962 until his retirement at the 1985 election.
In 1985, sitting Member for Glenroy Jack Culpin moved to Broadmeadows after his previous district was abolished. Culpin held the seat for one term.
In 1988, Jim Kennan moved from the Thomastown Legislative Council seat to Broadmeadows. He became Deputy Premier in 1990 and became Leader of the Opposition following the ALP’s election defeat in 1992.
Kennan resigned from Parliament in June 1993. The ensuing by-election was won by John Brumby, who had been Legislative Council member for Doutta Galla since another by-election in March the same year.
Brumby had been elected Leader of the Victorian ALP following Kennan’s resignation before his move to the Legislative Assembly. Brumby served as Labor leader until March 1999, when he stepped down in favour of Steve Bracks.
Brumby served as a senior minister in the Bracks government, serving as Assistant Treasurer (with Bracks himself as Treasurer) until he was appointed Treasurer in 2000. In 2007, Brumby was elected Labor leader and Premier following Steve Bracks’ retirement.
John Brumby led the ALP to the 2010 election, when the party narrowly lost power. Brumby resigned shortly after the election, and the 2011 by-election was won by Labor candidate Frank McGuire. McGuire was re-elected in 2014.
Candidates
- Frank McGuire (Labor)
- Jerome Small (Socialists)
- Sheriden Tate (Greens)
- Jenny Dow (Liberal)
Assessment
Broadmeadows is a very safe Labor seat.
2014 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Frank Mcguire | Labor | 21,584 | 64.2 | +3.4 |
Evren Onder | Liberal | 5,797 | 17.2 | -8.7 |
Wayne Knight | Family First | 2,221 | 6.6 | +5.4 |
Jaime De Loma-Osorio Ricon | Greens | 1,884 | 5.6 | -2.5 |
Mohamed Hassan | Voice For The West | 1,642 | 4.9 | +4.9 |
John Rinaldi | Independent | 508 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
Informal | 3,133 | 8.5 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Frank McGuire | Labor | 26,126 | 77.8 | +7.8 |
Evren Onder | Liberal | 7,442 | 22.2 | -7.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Broadmeadows have been divided into three areas: Central, North and South.
Labor won a massive majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 76.3% in the south to 80.7% in the centre.
Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
North | 79.4 | 8,737 | 26.0 |
Central | 80.7 | 7,131 | 21.2 |
South | 76.3 | 6,707 | 19.9 |
Other votes | 73.8 | 5,313 | 15.8 |
Pre-poll | 77.4 | 5,748 | 17.1 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Broadmeadows at the 2014 Victorian state election
My prediction: Easy Labor hold.
P.S. Thomastown’s comments are turned off, so that seat is also an Easy Labor hold.