LIB 11.9%
Incumbent MP
Denis Napthine, since 2002. Previously Member for Portland 1988-2002.
Geography
South-Western Victoria. This seat covers the South Australian border and the western end of Victoria’s southern coast. It covers the towns of Warrnambool, Portland, Port Fairy, and Macarthur. South-West Coast covers the City of Warrnambool and a majority of the Shire of Moyne and the Shire of Glenelg.
Redistribution
No change.
History
South-West Coast was created at the 2002 election, replacing the abolished seats of Portland and Warrnambool.
At the 2002 election it was won by former Liberal leader Denis Napthine. He had been Member for Portland since 1988, and Minister for Youth and Community Services in the second term of the Kennett government. He was elected leader of the Liberal Party following Kennett’s defeat in 1999, and led the party until 2002, when he was replaced by Robert Doyle as Liberal leader months before the 2002 state election.
At the 2002 election, Napthine moved to the new seat of South-West Coast, holding it with a 0.7% margin despite a large swing to the ALP. He was re-elected with a larger margin in 2006. In 2010, he increased his margin to 11.9%.
Napthine served as a minister in the Bailleu Coalition government. In March 2013, Bailleu resigned as Premier and Napthine was elected as leader of the Liberal Party and Premier.
Candidates
- Thomas Campbell (Greens)
- Michael McCluskey (Independent)
- Steven Moore (Country Alliance)
- Linda Smith (Independent)
- Roy Reekie (Labor)
- Denis Napthine (Liberal)
Assessment
South-West Coast is a reasonably safe Liberal seat. The seat could be vulnerable if the Labor vote was particularly strong, but should be fine considering Denis Napthine’s high profile.
2010 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Denis Napthine | Liberal | 19,316 | 49.28 | +3.98 |
| John Herbertson | Labor | 9,658 | 24.64 | -13.68 |
| James Purcell | Independent | 4,519 | 11.53 | +11.53 |
| Jack Howard | Greens | 3,228 | 8.24 | +2.86 |
| Tony Arscott | Country Alliance | 1,394 | 3.56 | +3.56 |
| Craig Haberfield | Family First | 1,081 | 2.76 | -0.64 |
2010 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Denis Napthine | Liberal | 24,252 | 61.90 | +7.89 |
| John Herbertson | Labor | 14,926 | 38.10 | -7.89 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in South-West Coast have been divided into three parts, along local government areas: Glenelg, Moyne and Warrnambool. A majority of the electorate’s population lives in the Warrnambool area. Glenelg is the other major town in the electorate, although the council area also covers surrounding rural areas.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56% in Glenelg to 67.3% in Moyne.
Independence candidate James Purcell came third. His vote was strongest in Moyne, at over 20%. Purcell polled 12% in Warrnambool and 7.6% in Glenelg.
| Voter group | IND % | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| Warrnambool | 11.97 | 10.10 | 61.84 | 13,317 | 34.54 |
| Moyne | 20.35 | 7.39 | 67.32 | 5,587 | 14.49 |
| Glenelg | 7.59 | 6.01 | 55.96 | 5,457 | 14.15 |
| Other votes | 9.40 | 7.88 | 61.86 | 14,192 | 36.81 |
Lived here once, problem for Labor is that they even in good years don’t poll well enough in the coastal towns to counter the very strong conservative vote further inland. Even areas of Warrnambool that are low income don’t record anything like the strong Labor votes you see in comparable areas of Bendigo such as Eaglehawk.
There was an amusingly trivial change at the redistribution. The premier lost two constituents.
From the final report: