Southern Metropolitan – Victoria 2014

Incumbent MLCs

  • Andrea Coote (Liberal), since 2006. Previously MLC for Monash 1999-2006.
  • Georgie Crozier (Liberal), since 2010.
  • David Davis (Liberal), since 2006. Previously MLC for East Yarra 1996-2006.
  • John Lenders (Labor), since 2006. Previously Member for Dandenong North 1999-2002, MLC for Waverley 2002-2006.
  • Sue Pennicuik (Greens), since 2006.

Geography

Electorate Margin Electorate Margin Electorate Margin
Albert Park ALP 0.9% Caulfield LIB 9.8% Oakleigh ALP 5.1%
Bentleigh LIB 0.9% Hawthorn LIB 16.6% Prahran LIB 4.7%
Brighton LIB 14.3% Kew LIB 15.7% Sandringham LIB 15.6%
Burwood LIB 6.3% Malvern LIB 20.5%

Southmetro-LCNine out of eleven seats in Southern Metropolitan are held by the Liberal Party, with the other two seats held by Labor.

Those two Labor seats are on the edge of the region – Albert Park in the north-west and Oakleigh in the east. Albert Park is very marginal (0.9%) while Oakleigh is relatively marginal (5.1%).

The Liberal Party holds Bentleigh by a slim margin of 0.9%, and Prahran is held by only 4.7%. The other seven Liberal seats are held by margins ranging from 6.3% in Burwood to 20.5% in Malvern.

Redistribution
Changes were relatively minor in the Southern Metropolitan region, with all eleven seats maintaining their existing name.

No seat underwent a major redrawing.

Looking at the region as a whole, there was very little change in the vote for any of the key parties.

History
The Southern Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

In 2006, the ALP and Liberal Party each won two seats, and the fifth seat was won by the Greens.

In 2010, the Liberal Party won a third seat at the expense of the ALP.

Coote, Davis, Lenders and Pennicuik have all held their seats since the 2006 election. Evan Thornley was elected as a Labor MLC in 2006. He resigned in late 2008, and his seat was filled by Jennifer Huppert. She lost to Liberal candidate Georgie Crozier in 2010.

2010 result

2010 election Redistribution
Party Votes % Quota % Quota
Liberal Party 196,676 51.57 3.094 51.58 3.095
Labor Party 96,404 25.28 1.517 25.34 1.520
The Greens 62,285 16.33 0.980 16.32 0.979
Sex Party 12,364 3.24 0.195 3.12 0.187
Democratic Labor Party 6,849 1.80 0.108 1.81 0.109
Family First 3,620 0.95 0.057 0.98 0.059
Others 3,171 0.83 0.050 0.85 0.051

On primary votes, the first three Liberal candidates and the first Labor candidate were elected, with the Greens just short of a quota.

The final six candidates in the count were:

  • Sue Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.982 quotas
  • Jennifer Huppert (ALP) – 0.516
  • Ken Hill (SEX) – 0.212
  • Michael Murphy (DLP) – 0.134
  • Jane Hume (LIB) – 0.090
  • Ashley Truter (FF) – 0.061

Family First and Liberal preferences both flowed to the DLP, pushing Murphy ahead of the Sex Party candidate:

  • Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.985
  • Huppert (ALP) – 0.519
  • Murphy (DLP) – 0.261
  • Hill (SEX) – 0.216

Sex Party preferences elected the Greens’ Sue Pennicuik.

  • Pennicuik (GRN) – 1.161
  • Huppert (ALP) – 0.524
  • Murphy (DLP) – 0.266
  • Hill (SEX) – 0.026

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MLC Andrea Coote and sitting Labor MLC John Lenders are not running for re-election.

  • A – Faliana Lee – Australian Christians
  • B – Vince Stefano – Democratic Labour
  • C – Craig Bonsor – Liberal Democrats
  • D – Peter Vassiliou – Rise Up Australia
  • E – Richard Bowen – Cyclists Party
  • F – Clive Jackson
  • G – Greens
    1. Sue Pennicuik
    2. James Searle
    3. Rose Read
    4. Lorna Wyatt
    5. James Harrison
  • H – Kenneth Miller – People Power
  • I – Nyree Walshe – Animal Justice
  • J – Francesca Collins – Sex Party
  • K – Penny McCasker – Voluntary Euthanasia
  • L – Labor
    1. Philip Dalidakis
    2. Eric Locke
    3. Raffaele Ciccone
    4. Cassandra Devine
    5. William Fowles
  • M – Paul William – Shooters and Fishers
  • N – Shane Clark – Family First
  • O – Christopher Morris – Country Alliance
  • P – Dwayne Singleton – Palmer United Party
  • Q – Liberal
    1. David Davis
    2. Georgie Crozier
    3. Margaret Fitzherbert
    4. Ken Ong
    5. Nellie Khoroshina
  • R – Luzio Grossi
  • Ungrouped
    • George Neophytou

Preferences

Assessment
The first two Liberal seats and the single Labor seat are very safe, and the third Liberal seat and the Greens seat are also reasonably safe.

The Liberal vote is a long way away from putting the party’s fourth candidate in a possibly winning position. The party could see a drop in vote that could threaten their third seat, but it would have to be a substantial drop.

The Greens won their seat fairly comfortably. The ALP would need a swing of approximately 2.2% against the Greens to pick up a seat.