LIB 1.6%
Incumbent MP
Joe Helper (ALP), since 1999.
Geography
Western Victoria. Ripon covers rural areas to the west of Ballarat and Bendigo, including the towns of Ararat, Beaufort, Bridgewater, Maryborough, Stawell and Creswick. The electorate covers the entirety of the Pyrenees council area, and parts of Ararat, Ballarat, Buloke, Central Goldfields, Hepburn, Loddon and Northern Grampians council areas.
Redistribution
Ripon shifted north, expanding to cover a larger area. The electorate took in a large part of the abolished seat of Swan Hill, including the towns of St Arnaud, Wedderburn and Donald, as well as small parts of Ballarat East, Ballarat West, Bendigo East and Bendigo West. Ripon lost areas on its western border, including Halls Gap, to Lowan, and lost southern areas to Buninyong. These changes wiped out the 2.7% ALP margin and turned Ripon into a notional Liberal seat with a 1.6% margin.
History
The current Ripon electoral district has existed since 1976. In that form, it was held by the Liberal Party from 1976 to 1999, and by the ALP since then.
The first Ripon district was created in 1945. It was held by the ALP’s Ernie Morton from 1945 to 1947 and again from 1950 to 1955. The Liberal Party’s Rutherford Guthrie held the seat from 1947 to 1950. The original Ripon district was abolished in 1955.
When Ripon was created in 1976, it was first won by Liberal MP Tom Austin, who had held the seat of Hampden since 1972. Hampden was abolished in the 1976 redistribution, and Austin moved to Ripon.
Austin served as a minister in the Liberal state government from 1978 to 1982 and as Deputy Leader of the Opposition from 1985 to 1987. He retired in 1992.
Austin was succeeded by Steve Elder, who had been Liberal Member for Ballarat North from 1988 until the seat’s abolition in 1992. He served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Kennett government until his defeat at the 1999 election.
Elder was defeated in 1999 by Joe Helper. Helper has been re-elected in 2002, 2006 and 2010, and served as a minister in the Labor government from 2006 to 2010.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Joe Helper is not running for re-election.
- Scott Turner (Nationals)
- Peter Mulcahy (Rise Up Australia)
- Daniel McGlone (Labor)
- Mitchell Lee (Democratic Labour)
- Louise Staley (Liberal)
- Kevin Loiterton (Australian Christians)
- Rod May (Greens)
- Trevor Domaschenz (Country Alliance)
- Danielle Fowler (Family First)
Assessment
Ripon is a very marginal electorate and is likely to swing to the side of politics that is on track to win the election.
2010 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Joe Helper | Labor | 14,169 | 42.06 | -4.73 | 38.87 |
| Vic Dunn | Liberal | 11,596 | 34.42 | -0.84 | 29.07 |
| Wendy McIvor | Nationals | 3,850 | 11.43 | +2.92 | 20.36 |
| Steve Morse | Greens | 2,084 | 6.19 | +0.23 | 6.10 |
| Scott Watts | Country Alliance | 1,211 | 3.59 | +3.59 | 2.72 |
| Jesse Boer | Family First | 776 | 2.30 | -1.18 | 2.86 |
| Christian Democrats | 0.02 | ||||
| Sex Party | 0.01 |
2010 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Joe Helper | Labor | 17,755 | 52.71 | -1.64 | 48.40 |
| Vic Dunn | Liberal | 15,931 | 47.29 | +1.64 | 51.60 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Ripon has been divided into three parts, along local government boundaries:
- North-East – Central Goldfields and Loddon council areas
- North-West – Buloke and Northern Grampians council areas
- South – Ararat, Ballarat, Hepburn and Pyrenees council areas
The ALP won slim two-party-preferred majorities in two areas: 52.1% in the north-east and 52% in the south.
The Coalition polled 62.5% in the north-west, a majority of which was previously in the Nationals seat of Swan Hill.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB/NAT 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| South | 7.39 | 48.01 | 13,229 | 34.37 |
| North-East | 4.45 | 47.94 | 9,073 | 23.57 |
| North-West | 4.56 | 62.49 | 7,624 | 19.81 |
| Other votes | 7.22 | 50.95 | 8,565 | 22.25 |
Helper has a very large personal vote probably highest of any Labor MP his absence will make it difficult for Labor although an IPA libertarian Liberal candidate maybe not ideal fit for seat.
Looks if the Nationals will get up here.
Will be an interesting three-horse race. Agree that Helper had a massive following. One to keep an eye on on election night.
A fascinating three-cornered contest. Helper’s substantial personal vote will disappear. Staley has just moved into the seat but is involved with the Ararat hospital, McGlone is based in Ballarat (so likely no personal vote in any of the major towns), while Turner has a substantial following in Ararat/Stawell (local footy hero) but little elsewhere. Labor is running dead (no ads, no corflutes, etc), so I predict a tight Lib-Nat contest.
Labor will lose this seat but whether the Nationals or Liberals win here will be interesting, I think Louise Staley and the Liberals will win it. Agree it will be one of the most fascinating contests of the election.
Staley is a virulently anti-Catholic left-wing Liberal. If the Nats muscle up against her they will win the seat. But not sure if they’re going to spend enough money to make the Turner campaign a serious threat.
I hear polling has Turner ahead of Staley.
Crikey liberal source says this looks to be the only liberal gain in the Ballarat area with Wendouree and Buninyong being to hard to win for the libs
Turner gets the donkey vote at top of the ballot. Labor at #3 and Liberal at #5.
Will Ripon voters really vote for a perennial political hack who spends most of her time working in the city at the IPA who lives in sin with a “partner”? Word has it the local branches don’t like Staley that much.
AC/Crane, same person much?
I would guess that the good people of Ripon don’t care too much about any of the candidates co-habital arrangements.
The Lib will probably win here, Labor second. It’s remarkable that Helper kept this in the Labor column for so long.
Both Poll Bludger’s seat model and mine (http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/victorian-poll-roundup-and-seat-betting.html) currently favour Labor but unless there is polling to back that or a large increase in the Labor statewide 2PP then I expect I will apply a manual override for my final prediction.
Dark horse Trevor Domaschenz ACA. Down to earth. Spent years battling bureaucrats. Rural proud.
This is the seat that has me most interested. The Coalition ought to win this based on the new boundaries but Im not sure if Staley is viewed as a polarising figure.
It would be huge if the ALP were to retain this.
The Age reports that both sides see Ripon as ‘closer than you’d expect’. Nonetheless, demographic-wise, this is a tough Labor seat to hold.
Turner needs 25% to get up. Needs to hold the 20% Nat vote and pick up 5% – very well known and liked in Ararat.