Narre Warren North – Victoria 2014

ALP 4.8%

Incumbent MP
Luke Donnellan, since 2002.

Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. The electorate covers Hallam, Narre Warren and Narre Warren North, as well as parts of Berwick, Endeavour Hills and Harkaway. The electorate covers northern parts of the City of Casey.

Map of Narre Warren North's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Narre Warren North’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Narre Warren North expanded in a southward direction, gaining parts of Hallam and Narre Warren from Narre Warren South. The electorate lost areas on its eastern, western and northern boundaries to Gembrook, Dandenong and Rowville respectively. The changes increased the Labor margin from 3% to 4.8%.

History
Narre Warren North was created in 2002 as a notional Liberal seat. It was won at that year’s election by the ALP’s Luke Donnellan, who was re-elected in 2006 and 2010.

In 2010, Donnellan’s margin was cut from 9.3% to 3.0%.

Candidates

Assessment
Narre Warren North is a marginal electorate, but the likely pro-Labor swing across Victoria should strengthen Donnellan’s position.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Luke Donnellan Labor 15,043 42.52 -9.79 44.22
Michelle Frazer Liberal 14,743 41.67 +8.03 39.83
Michael Schilling Greens 2,443 6.91 -0.04 6.92
Lissa McKenzie Family First 1,222 3.45 -2.53 3.83
Carmen Sant Democratic Labor 1,041 3.09 +3.09 2.70
Paul Richardson Independent 604 1.71 +1.71 1.30
Taimour Hassan Independent 228 0.64 +0.64 0.53
Other independents 0.68

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Luke Donnellan Labor 18,739 52.97 -6.26 54.80
Michelle Frazer Liberal 16,638 47.03 +6.26 45.20
Polling places in Narre Warren North at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in green, South in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Narre Warren North at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in green, South in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Narre Warren North have been divided into three areas: east, west and south.

The ALP won a majority in two areas: 53.15% in the east and 58.9% in the west. The Liberal Party won a slim 50.1% majority in the south. The ALP also won 55.3% of the two-party-preferred vote amongst the special votes.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
East 6.33 53.15 9,134 25.18
West 6.73 58.90 8,895 24.52
South 6.82 49.40 6,689 18.44
Other votes 7.59 55.30 11,556 31.86
Two-party-preferred votes in Narre Warren North at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Narre Warren North at the 2010 Victorian state election.