Niddrie – Victoria 2014

ALP 4.5%

Incumbent MP
Ben Carroll, since 2012.

Geography
Western Melbourne. Niddrie covers Airport West, Avondale Heights, Keilor, Keilor East, Keilor Park and parts of Aberfeldie, Essendon and Taylors Lakes. Niddrie covers parts of the City of Brimbank and the City of Moonee Valley.

Map of Niddrie's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Niddrie’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Niddrie lost Kealba to St Albans and gained Keilor from Keilor and Aberfeldie from Essendon. These changes cut the Labor margin from 6.9% to 4.5%.

History
Niddrie has existed as an electoral district since 1976, and has always been held by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1976 by Jack Simpson. He served as a minister in the Labor state government from 1982 to 1985, and retired in 1988.

Simpson was replaced in 1988 by Bob Sercombe. Sercombe served as ALP deputy leader from 1993 to 1994. He held the seat until 1996, when he resigned to run for the federal seat of Maribyrnong. He held Maribyrnong until 2007, when he retired in the face of a strong preselection challenge.

Rob Hulls won the seat of Niddrie at the 1996 state election. He became a minister following the 1999 state election and became Deputy Premier in 2007 upon the retirement of Steve Bracks and his Deputy Premier, John Thwaites.

Rob Hulls retired in 2012, and the subsequent by-election was easily won by Labor candidate Ben Carroll.

Candidates

Assessment
While Niddrie is a relatively marginal seat, there should be a swing back to Labor.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Rob Hulls Labor 14,435 45.68 -8.08 43.60
Joh Bauch Liberal 11,000 34.81 +3.34 36.78
Leharna Black Greens 2,451 7.76 -1.37 8.18
Jim Little Independent 1,516 4.80 +4.8 4.06
Mark Markovic Family First 1,263 4.00 -1.65 3.73
Steve Medcraft Independent 499 1.58 +1.58 1.34
Brian Roberts Independent 162 0.51 +0.51 0.43
John Nott Independent 140 0.44 +0.44 0.37
Robert Livesay Independent 131 0.41 +0.41 0.34
Democratic Labor 0.24
Other independents 0.93

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Rob Hulls Labor 18,105 56.95 -4.27 54.5
Joh Bauch Liberal 13,687 43.05 +4.27 45.5

2012 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ben Carroll Labor 12,941 46.84 +1.15
Andrea Surace Independent 3,443 12.46 +12.46
Josie Lester Greens 2,865 10.37 +2.61
Amy Myers Sex Party 2,245 8.12 +8.12
Jim Little Independent 1,924 6.96 +2.17
Frank Papafotiou Christian Democratic Party 1,588 5.75 +5.75
Michael Deverala Democratic Labor 1,322 4.78 +4.78
Gerrit Schorel-Hlavka Independent 946 3.42 +3.42
David Linaker Independent 357 1.29 +1.29

2012 by-election two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ben Carroll Labor 19,687 70.72
Josie Lester Greens 8,149 29.28
Polling places in Niddrie at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in green, East in blue, North in red, South in yellow.
Polling places in Niddrie at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in green, East in blue, North in red, South in yellow.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Niddrie have been divided into four areas: Central, North, South and East.

At the 2010 election, the ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 51.2% in the east to 58.5% in the south.

At the 2012 by-election, the ALP easily won the primary vote in all four areas, ranging from 43% in the east to 48.7% in the north.

2010 election breakdown

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
North 7.36 53.28 7,051 19.69
Central 5.94 57.40 5,907 16.49
South 6.20 58.48 5,693 15.90
East 10.11 51.22 5,333 14.89
Other votes 9.86 54.04 11,832 33.04

2012 by-election breakdown

Voter group GRN % Surace % ALP % Total % of votes
North 10.43 8.35 48.70 5,895 21.33
Central 8.84 17.07 44.34 5,676 20.54
South 9.35 13.45 44.41 5,211 18.86
East 12.55 12.00 42.98 3,832 13.87
Other votes 11.12 11.70 51.19 7,017 25.40
Two-party-preferred votes in Niddrie at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Niddrie at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Labor primary votes at the 2012 Niddrie by-election.
Labor primary votes at the 2012 Niddrie by-election.

2 COMMENTS

Comments are closed.