LIB 8.6%
Incumbent MP
Michael Gidley, since 2010.
Geography
Eastern Melbourne. The electorate covers most of Mount Waverley and Glen Waverley. The entire electorate lies in the northern part of the City of Monash.
Redistribution
Mount Waverley expanded east, gaining more of Glen Waverley from Scoresby. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 7.4% to 8.6%.
History
Mount Waverley was created prior to the 2002 election. Based on 1999 election results, Mount Waverley had a notional Liberal margin of 9.1%.
At the 2002 election, the seat was won by the ALP’s Maxine Morand with a 2.3% margin. In 2006 her margin was cut to 0.3%.
At the 2010 election, Morand was defeated by Liberal candidate Michael Gidley.
Candidates
- Perky Raj Khangure (Greens)
- Stephen Zheng (Australian Christians)
- Michael Gidley (Liberal)
- Jennifer Yang (Labor)
Assessment
Mount Waverley was a very marginal Labor seat before the last election. The current margin is reasonably safe, and the Liberal Party should benefit from a sophmore surge, which could cancel out any general anti-Liberal swing. It’s likely that the Liberal Party will retain this seat.
2010 election result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
Michael Gidley | Liberal | 17,126 | 51.34 | +6.96 | 52.52 |
Maxine Morand | Labor | 11,420 | 34.23 | -7.58 | 33.47 |
Josh Fergeus | Greens | 2,548 | 7.64 | -0.38 | 7.60 |
John Canavan | Family First | 815 | 2.44 | -1.02 | 2.46 |
Lisa Chevallier | Sex Party | 578 | 1.73 | +1.73 | 1.58 |
Des Kelly | Democratic Labor | 535 | 1.60 | +1.6 | 1.46 |
Ali Khan | Independent | 336 | 1.01 | +1.01 | 0.92 |
2010 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
Michael Gidley | Liberal | 19,177 | 57.45 | +7.81 | 58.60 |
Maxine Morand | Labor | 14,204 | 42.55 | -7.81 | 41.40 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mount Waverley have been divided into three parts: East, South and West.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, with about 57% in the south and west, and 61% in the east.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 7.1% in the east to 7.6% in the south and west.
Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
West | 7.64 | 56.61 | 11,273 | 30.77 |
East | 7.10 | 60.99 | 8,251 | 22.52 |
South | 7.60 | 56.75 | 6,274 | 17.12 |
Other votes | 7.92 | 59.90 | 10,841 | 29.59 |
could be a surprise, changing demographics and alp selecting candidate of East asian background may swing the large Chinese population to the alp.
KJK
It will take more than that.
While Glen Waverley has a growing Asian population, it’s quite an affluent middle-class demographic. I guess kind of the equivalent of Epping or Chatswood in Sydney…..
Was actually in Glen Waverley today. The Asian restaurants were split about 50-50 between Gidley and Yang in advertising signs…..
Mark – right on the money with that observation
Expecting this seat to be really close. Won’t be surprisef if it goes either way, although it is of course more likely to remain with the Libs. I think it will be the Liberals most marginal seat after the election. Either that or Ringwood, although I feel the East-West Link is very popular in Ringwood and that could have only a small swing to Lablr compared to thr state.