Mordialloc – Victoria 2014

LIB 1.5%

Incumbent MP
Lorraine Wreford, since 2010.

Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. Mordialloc covers the suburbs of Aspendale, Chelsea, Chelsea Heights, Cheltenham, Edithvale, Mentone, Mordialloc and Parkdale. Most of the electorate lives in the City of Kingston, as well as a small part in the Greater Dandenong council area.

Map of Mordialloc's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Mordialloc’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Mordialloc shifted south, losing Heatherton to Clarinda and Braeside and Dingley Village to Keysborough in the north, and gaining Aspendale, Edithvale, Chelsea and Chelsea Heights from Carrum in the south, as well as parts of Lyndhurst. These changes reduced the Liberal margin from 2.1% to 1.5%.

History
Mordialloc was created in 1992. It was won by the Liberal Party at its first three elections and has been held by the ALP since 2002.

Mordialloc was won in 1992 by the Liberal Party’s Geoff Leigh. Leigh was first elected in 1982 in a by-election in the seat of Malvern, which had been vacated by recently defeated Liberal Premier Lindsay Thompson following the 1982 election.

Leigh moved to Mordialloc in 1992, and held the seat until his defeat in 2002.

Janice Munt won Mordialloc for the ALP in 2002. Munt was re-elected in 2006. In 2010, Munt was defeated by Liberal candidate Lorraine Wreford.

Candidates

Assessment
Mordialloc is a very marginal seat. Wreford should benefit from a personal vote as a first-term incumbent MP, as well as the absence of the personal vote for her predecessor Janice Munt, but the seat will likely swing to the party winning statewide.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Lorraine Wreford Liberal 17,223 46.86 +6.11 45.98
Janice Munt Labor 13,778 37.49 -7.85 38.01
Camellia Feteiha Greens 3,443 9.37 -0.66 10.05
Tom Killen Sex Party 764 2.08 +2.08 1.06
Stephen Nowland Family First 552 1.50 -2.38 1.88
James Leach Democratic Labor 514 1.40 +1.4 1.92
Michael Carty Independent 225 0.61 +0.61 0.23
Brandon Hoult Independent 152 0.41 +0.41 0.25
Frank Denvir Independent 102 0.28 +0.28 0.17
Other independents 0.46

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Lorraine Wreford Liberal 19,137 52.07 -5.61 51.50
Janice Munt Labor 17,616 47.93 -5.61 48.50
Polling places in Mordialloc at the 2010 Victorian state election. Aspendale in green, Chelsea in red, Mentone in yellow, Parkdale in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Mordialloc at the 2010 Victorian state election. Aspendale in green, Chelsea in red, Mentone in yellow, Parkdale in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Mordialloc have been divided into four parts, named after four key suburbs. From north to south, these areas are Mentone, Parkdale, Aspendale and Chelsea.

The Liberal Party won a majority in three out of four areas: Mentone (51.1%), Parkdale (52.4%) and Aspendale (52.9%). The ALP won a 51.5% majority in Chelsea.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 8.6% in Aspendale to 11.5% in Parkdale.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total % of votes
Aspendale 8.58 52.91 8,816 23.51
Parkdale 11.48 52.36 8,129 21.68
Chelsea 9.17 48.52 5,886 15.70
Mentone 9.92 51.05 4,518 12.05
Other votes 10.75 51.17 10,152 27.07
Two-party-preferred votes in Mordialloc at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Mordialloc at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Mordialloc at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Mordialloc at the 2010 Victorian state election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. Have seen a lot from the ALP candidate around and very little from the incumbent. The personal vote will be lessened by the redistribution, all the areas south of Mordialloc Creek – which is about half the electorate – used to belong to Carrum and they didn’t vote for Wreford so won’t know her.

    This is one of the “Frankston Line four” seats (along with Carrum, Bentleigh and Frankston) that swung to the Liberals in 2010 by relatively small margins. The current issues with the Frankston line, the broken promises around Southland station and the North Road crossing and the metro rail tunnel (and the Shaw factor in Frankston) very well may swing these seats back the way of the ALP.

  4. Victoria and Georgina Oxley area apparently the only parent/child pair to have run against each other in a Vic state election (says my local paper).

  6. I was wondering if they were related but didn’t bother looking for any further info about them. I assume they’re swapping preferences!

    Crazy stuff.

Comments are closed.