Forest Hill – Victoria 2014

LIB 3.5%

Incumbent MP
Neil Angus, since 2010.

Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Forest Hill covers the suburbs of Blackburn South, Burwood East, Forest Hill, Vermont and Vermont South, and parts of Glen Waverley. Forest Hill mainly covers southeastern parts of the City of Whitehorse, as well as a small area in the northeastern corner of the City of Monash.

Map of Forest Hill's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Forest Hill’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
No changes were made to the eastern, western and southern boundaries of Forest Hill. Forest Hill gained the remainder of Vermont from Bayswater and Mitcham on its northern border. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 3.2% to 3.5%.

History
Forest Hill was first created in 1976. It was won at the 1976 election by Liberal candidate John Richardson. He held the seat until 2002, serving as a shadow minister in the 1980s.

Richardson retired in 2002. A large swing to the ALP saw Olympic skier Kirstie Marshall win the seat at the 2002 election with a 5.8% margin. This was cut to 0.8% at the 2006 election.

In 2010, Marshall was defeated by Liberal candidate Neil Angus.

Candidates

  1. Kane Rogers (Animal Justice)
  2. Melissa Trotter (Country Alliance)
  3. Neil Angus (Liberal)
  4. Pauline Richards (Labor)
  5. Brewis Atkinson (Greens)
  6. Lynne Maddison (Australian Christians)
  7. Wendy Ross (Family First)

Assessment
Forest Hill is a marginal seat, and Neil Angus’ hold on the seat is certainly not secure, but he should benefit from a new personal vote.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Neil Angus Liberal 16,043 48.62 +4.28 48.92
Kirstie Marshall Labor 12,796 38.78 -3.29 38.06
Andrew Henley Greens 2,501 7.58 -1.06 7.81
Ivan Stratov Family First 632 1.92 -3.03 1.95
Daniel Irwin Sex Party 614 1.86 +1.86 1.93
James Fung Democratic Labor 411 1.25 +1.25 1.33

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Neil Angus Liberal 17,550 53.17 +3.94 53.50
Kirstie Marshall Labor 15,458 46.83 -3.94 46.50
Polling places in Forest Hill at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in orange, South in green, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Forest Hill at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in orange, South in green, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Forest Hill have been divided into three areas.

The ALP won a slim 50.4% majority in the west, while the Liberal Party won larger majorities in the east (5%) and south (6.6%).

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total % of votes
West 7.69 49.61 11,076 29.31
East 7.44 55.04 9,698 25.66
South 7.42 56.57 5,460 14.45
Other votes 8.42 54.81 11,555 30.58
Two-party-preferred votes in Forest Hill at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Forest Hill at the 2010 Victorian state election.

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