Shepparton – Victoria 2010

NAT 24.7%

Incumbent MP
Jeanette Powell, since 2002.

Geography
Northern Victoria. The seat of Shepparton covers most of the Greater Shepparton local government area, including the town of Shepparton itself.

History
The seat of Shepparton first existed from 1945 to 1955, and again since 1967. In that time it has always been won by the Country/National Party.

Peter Ross-Edwards held Shepparton for first the Country Party and then National Party from 1967 until his resignation in 1991.

The 1991 by-election was won by National candidate Don Kilgour. He was re-elected in 1992, 1996 and 1999, and retired in 2002.

In 2002, the National Party’s Jeanette Powell, who had served as an MLC for North-East province since 1996, won the seat in a close contest with the Liberal candidate. She was re-elected in 2006.

Candidates

Political situation
The main competition for the Nationals in this seat in 2002 and 2006 came from the Liberal Party. With the coalition agreement now preventing a Liberal candidate from standing in this seat, there is little competition for the Nationals.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jeanette Powell NAT 15,743 48.44 +19.63
Stephen Merrylees LIB 8,427 25.93 -4.11
James Taylor ALP 6,174 19.00 -2.92
Doug Ralph GRN 1,519 4.67 +1.38
Neil Meyer FF 640 1.97 +1.97

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jeanette Powell NAT 21,677 66.67 +12.40
Stephen Merrylees LIB 10,838 33.33 -12.40

Booth breakdown
Booths in Shepparton have been divided into three areas: Shepparton itself, and the remainder in the north and south of the seat.

As the final two-party-preferred vote in 2002 and 2006 was between the Liberals and Nationals, I have instead examined the primary votes for the three main parties. The Nationals polled just under 50% in Shepparton and the South, and almost 60% in the North. The Liberals polled consistently around 25-26% across the seat. The ALP polled around 20% in the centre and south of the seat, but under 12% in the north.

Polling booths in Shepparton at the 2006 state election. Shepparton in green, South in blue, North in yellow.
Voter group ALP % LIB % NAT % Total votes % of votes
Shepparton 20.36 25.55 47.39 14,674 45.13
South 19.02 26.00 49.14 9,097 27.98
North 11.72 25.02 58.77 2,031 6.25
Other votes 18.18 26.92 46.65 6,713 20.65
Nationals primary votes in the seat of Shepparton at the 2006 state election.
Nationals primary votes in central Shepparton at the 2006 state election.
Liberal primary votes in the seat of Shepparton at the 2006 state election.
Liberal primary votes in central Shepparton at the 2006 state election.
Labor primary votes in the seat of Shepparton at the 2006 state election.
Labor primary votes in central Shepparton at the 2006 state election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. Can someone who knows more about Victoria explain to me why Mildura and Shepparton rack up large Coalition majorities, whilst Ballarat/Bendigo only go Liberal when they have a decent-size majority in government?

  2. Pretty sure it’s a cominbation of:

    1) Mining heritage, with the Labor movement having a strong presence in Ballarat and Bendigo from early on, compared to agricultural Shepparton.

    2) Ballarat and Bendigo are simply bigger towns, with more of an urban feel than Shepparton or Mildura.

    3) Distance from Melbourne. Bendigo and Ballarat have attracted ex-Melburnians, commuters, tree-changers in the smaller towns, etc….who have brought their urban voting patterns with them.

    4) The local Ballarat and Bendigo seats also extend into the Macedon Ranges and Hepburn Shires, which are good for Labor and the Greens (alternative, natural health, tree-changer types). Shepparton and Mildura are surrounded by typical conservative voting farmland.

  3. Yikes. Country Alliance came second here. (52.1 Nat, 21.9 CA, 15.6 ALP.) I hope they don’t turn out to be the latest iteration of One Nation / Shooters / League of Rights / etc, because Labor’s probably gifted them a seat or two in the upper house. Ahh well, could’ve been worse… could’ve been the Greens there instead.

  4. It’s interesting to plot the Country Alliance vote against the booth size: all the 1500+ booths were between 15% and 20%, while the smaller booths were between 20% and 30%. Notable booths for the CA were Tallygaroopna and Toolamba, with 36.8% and 36.6% respectively.

    Also, the independent Paul Wickham got 7.3% at Mooroopna and 6% in Ardmona, with generally 1-3% elsewhere. Apparently he’s a pharmacist from Mooroopna, which would explain that – he’s the local guy.

  5. The ABC now has an updated 2pp margin: 10.3% vs CA. Not sure where they got that, the VEC site still has the 26.5% vs ALP figure.

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