Narracan – Victoria 2010

LIB 2.7%

Incumbent MP
Gary Blackwood, since 2006.

Geography
Eastern Victoria. Narracan covers the Shire of Baw Baw and the town of Moe in the City of Latrobe. Narracan covers the towns of Moe, Warragul, Narracan, and a number of smaller rural towns between Melbourne and the Latrobe Valley.

History
Narracan was first created at the 1967 election. It has been held by the Liberal Party for most of that time, except for the period from 1999 to 2006.

Narracan was first won in 1967 by Liberal minister Jim Balfour, who had previously held the seat of Morwell from 1955 to 1967. He held Narracan until his retirement in 1982, serving as a minister in the Liberal state government until 1977.

Narracan was won in 1982 by John Delzoppo of the Liberal Party. He served in a variety of Opposition frontbench positions during the 1980s, and when the Liberal Party won power in 1992, he was elected Speaker, serving in the role until his retirement in 1996.

In 1996, Narracan was won by Florian Andrighetto, also a Liberal. Andrighetto held the seat for one term, losing Narracan to the ALP’s Ian Maxfield in 1999.

Maxfield held the seat for two terms. He increased his margin to 6.8% in 2002, but a swing of over 9% in 2006 saw him lose to the Liberal Party’s Gary Blackwood.

Candidates

Political situation
Narracan has a long history of being held by the Liberal Party, and they will likely hold on in 2010.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Gary Blackwood LIB 14,720 42.03 +8.54
Ian Maxfield ALP 13,956 39.85 -6.60
Kate Jackson GRN 2,506 7.16 +1.22
John Verhoeven NAT 2,065 5.90 -2.39
Terry McKenna FF 1,366 3.90 +3.90
Roger Marks PP 271 0.77 +0.77
Steven Bird CEC 138 0.39 +0.39

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Gary Blackwood LIB 18,440 52.65 +9.47
Ian Maxfield ALP 16,582 47.35 -9.47

Booth breakdown
Booths in Narracan have been broken into four areas: those in the urban Moe area (the largest area by population), booths in the south, booths in the west, and booths in the sparsely-populated north.

The Liberal Party, despite winning the seat, failed to poll over 31% in the Moe area. They overcame this deficit by winning over 60% in all other parts of the seat.

 

Polling booths in Narracan at the 2006 state election. Moe in blue, South in red, West in yellow, North in green.
Voter group GRN % LIB 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Moe 5.40 30.99 8,493 24.21
South 7.67 60.39 8,306 23.68
West 7.56 63.05 7,415 21.14
North 4.08 61.93 1,027 2.93
Other votes 8.24 56.55 9,842 28.05
Two-party-preferred votes in Narracan at the 2006 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Narracan at the 2006 state election in the town of Moe.

4 COMMENTS

  1. Moe is probably the most depressed of the three Latrobe Valley towns so 70% ALP vote there is no surprise. Like the overlapping federal seat of McMillan, the thumping majorities Labor racks up in the handful of Moe booths almost outweighs the generally conservative nature of the rest of the seat.

    The 2001 redistribution made this a notionally Liberal seat by adding in more rural territory in the west from Drouin. I’d expect that trend to continue: as Melbourne’s outer south-east continues to grow, seats like Bass will be drawn further up into Pakenham, with Narracan gaining their rural areas and becoming better for the Liberals.

  4. Candidates in ballot paper order are:

    Belinda Rogers – Greens
    Jenny Webb –
    Brian Dungey – Country Alliance
    Tony Flynn – Labor
    Gary Blackwood – Liberal

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