Morwell – Victoria 2010

NAT 2.2%

Incumbent MP
Russell Northe, since 2006.

Geography
Latrobe Valley. Morwell covers most of the City of Latrobe, specifically the towns of Morwell and Traralgon, but not Moe. It also covers a small part of the Shire of Wellington. In addition to Morwell and Traralgon, Morwell electoral district covers the towns of Boolarra, Churchill, Tyers and Yallourn North.

History
Morwell has existed as an electoral district since 1955. It was first held by the Liberal Party until 1970, and by the Labor Party from 1970 until the 2006 election, when it was won by the current Nationals MP Russell Northe.

Morwell was first won in 1955 by Liberal candidate Jim Balfour. He became a cabinet minister in 1964, and in 1967 moved to the new seat of Narracan. He held Narracan until his retirement in 1982, serving as a cabinet minister until 1977.

Balfour was succeeded in Morwell by fellow Liberal Archie Tanner. A former amateur boxing champion, Tanner held the seat for one term, losing Morwell in 1970 to the 27-year-old Derek Amos of the ALP.

Amos held the seat until his resignation in 1981, when he was succeeded at a by-election by the 31-year-old Valerie Callister, also of the ALP.

Callister retired in 1988, and was succeeded by Keith Hamilton, who served as Minister for Agriculture and Minister for Aboriginal Affairs.

Hamilton retired at the 2002 election, and was succeeded by Brendan Jenkins. He held the seat with a 4.9% margin. In 2002, the Liberal Party polled 19% of the primary vote, with the Nationals polling 12%. The Nationals had been the primary opposition to the ALP in Morwell as recently as 1996, but in 1999 the Liberals had become the main opposition, with the Nationals not contesting the seat.

In 2006, the Nationals polled almost 28% of the primary vote, with the Liberals on 14%. After preferences, the Nationals’ Russell Northe won the seat with a 2.2% margin.

Candidates

Political situation
Despite the long history of ALP control of Morwell, the trend suggests the Nationals will hold the seat.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Brendan Jenkins ALP 13,347 40.57 -2.67
Russell Northe NAT 9,077 27.59 +15.26
Stephen Parker LIB 4,608 14.01 -5.31
Lisa Proctor IND 2,938 8.93 +8.93
Jeffrey Wrathall GRN 1,668 5.07 -0.82
Katy Koo FF 1,264 3.84 +3.84

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Russell Northe NAT 17,173 52.19 +7.05
Brendan Jenkins ALP 15,729 47.81 -7.05

Booth breakdown
Booths in Morwell have been divided into four areas. The booths in Traralgon and Morwell, which between them make up a majority of the seat’s voters, have each been grouped together. Booths outside of those two towns have been divided between those north of the main towns, and those to the south.

The Nationals won a large 63% majority in Traralgon, and a 57% margin in the north of the seat, but this was outweighed by a large 62% majority for the ALP in Morwell, and a slim 52% majority in the south of the seat, producing a narrow majority across the district for the Nationals.

Polling booths in Morwell at the 2006 state election. Morwell in yellow, Traralgon in blue, North in green, South in red.
Voter group IND % NAT 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Traralgon 11.83 63.17 11,407 34.67
Morwell 5.68 37.81 5,745 17.46
South 7.00 47.78 5,036 15.31
North 9.95 57.44 2,662 8.09
Other votes 8.01 47.62 8,052 24.47
Two-party-preferred votes (Nationals vs Labor) in Morwell at the 2006 state election.

11 COMMENTS

  1. You can see the massive difference between Morwell (blue-collar mining and electricity generation town) and Traralgon (provincial administrative and service town), although I admit I am surprised that the Nationals are so strong in Traralgon. I assume the big 60% ALP booth in the south is Churchill, home to Monash Uni and near to Hazelwood Power Station. Most of the rest of the seat is rural and conservative.

    The retirement of Hamilton in 2002 seems to have sparked off a damaging factional split in the local ALP, with members resigning and running as Independents against the endorsed candidate, etc. Not only did these problems help deliver Morwell and Narracan to the conservatives at state level, they’ve also been responsible for relatively poor results at federal level in 2004, 2007, and 2010.

  2. Interesting to compare this with the maps of Gippsland (federal) and notice how the difference between Traralgon and Morwell is even more pronounced at the state level.

    Large booth to the south is definitely Churchill.

    Another candidate, Independent Glyn Baker.

  5. Candidates in ballot paper order are:

    Peter Gardner –
    Dan Jordan – Greens
    Glyn Baker –
    Peter Kelly – Country Alliance
    Lou Sigmund –
    Russell Northe – Nationals
    Graeme Middlemiss – Labor

  7. Speaking to friends in the electorate – very little happening there. One mailout from the Labor candidate who apparently isnt the most outstanding or appealing guy they could have found. Looks like a comfortable National retain from what I’m hearing

  8. An extraordinary result….Coalition now hold a margin of around 16% in what used to be a fairly comfortable Labor seat.

  9. Hello. I’m no expert, but I think I can say that this result is easy to analyse. Labor’s policy to shut down Hazelwood power station can be summed up in this district in one word: TOXIC. It’s the only way to explain the seismic shift against Labor here.

    In 2006, Labor scored 2PP victories in 7 of the 18 booths, including all 4 of the Morwell booths. This time, they won only 1 booth, Yallourn North. By 24 votes.

    Labor lost its blue-collar base in and around Morwell because it of its policy to shut down Hazelwood. The power industry still employs a lot of people in Morwell, and a lot more people still remember the devastation caused to the local community by the privatization of the SEC during the Kennett years.

    Interestingly, I’m currently in the process of moving house from South Gippsland to Morwell, so I’ve had the chance to follow this race in some depth. Russell Northe had this local TV ad where he stood in front of Hazelwood and railed against Brumby’s plan to close it. His slogan was “Brumby, hands off our jobs!” In the end, I guess the guy offering continuation of the status quo got the votes.

    There were, however, other factors. The Labor candidate is a serving local councillor who has been involved in some controversial council decisions, such as the decision to move the local Traralgon Performing Arts centre from its home in Traralgon to Morwell.

    Whatever the merits of those decisions, I guess the perception here among Traralgonites is that they think they are being dudded by a Morwell-centric ALP. Certainly could explain the increase in Northe’s vote in the Traralgon boothes.

    Northe also probably benefitted a bit from the “sophomore surge”. There was also the absence of a Liberal candidate, but those primary votes would have gone over to Northe’s column anyway.

    That Labor lost probably came as no surprise, but the fact that they lost in what can favourably be described as a wipeout is the real story. Brumby came out with a policy to switch off Hazelwood in order to stave off the Greens in inner-Melbourne. Instead, he lost the Labor base in the Valley. The Liberals took care of the Greens with their decision on preferences (although the Hazelwood policy may have drawn some inner-city progressives back into the Labor fold. I’ll leave that analysis to others).

    In all, Labor faces an uphill task to make up ground in Morwell over the next four years, in my opinion. They may or may not be aided by how Ballieu governs. We’ll see…

  10. made little difference in the inner City – the Green vote still went up there – 4% or slightly more in Melbourne. The ALP looks like it is getting gradually wedged in the inner city between the Liberals and the Greens.

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