NAT 6.1% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Peter Crisp, since 2006.
Geography
Northwestern Victoria. Mildura covers the town of Mildura itself as well as a much larger area, including parts of the New South Wales and South Australian borders. It also covers the towns of of Hopetoun, Ouyen, Red Cliffs and Robinvale. The seat covers the entirety of the Rural City of Mildura, the northern half of Yarriambiack Shire and a small western part of the Rural City of Swan Hill.
History
Mildura has existed as an electoral district in the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 1927, and in that time it has been dominated by the Country/National Party, although there have been periods where that party has lost the seat, including the 18 years prior to the last election.
The seat was first won in 1927 by Albert Allnutt. He served as a Country Party member from 1930 until 1945, when he was expelled, and shortly afterwards lost his seat.
He was succeeded by the ALP’s Louis Garlick, who held the seat for one term from 1945 to 1947. He was defeated in 1947 by the Country Party’s Nathaniel Barclay.
Barclay held the seat for two terms, losing in 1952 to the ALP’s Alan Lind. He won the seat back in 1955, and held it until his death in 1962.
Lind was succeeded by the Country Party’s Milton Whiting, who won the seat at a 1962 by-election and served in the seat until his retirement in 1988.
At the 1988 election, Liberal candidate Craig Bildstien managed to win the seat with Labor preferences, putting an end to the National Party’s local domination.
Bildstien was re-elected in 1992, but in 1996 he was defeated by independent Russell Savage.
Savage was re-elected with a large margin in 1999, following which he agreed to support a state Labor government in minority. He was again safely re-elected in 2002, but in 2006 he lost his seat to the Nationals’ Peter Crisp.
Candidates
- Christopher Gray (Family First)
- Glenn Milne (Independent)
- Gavin Rees (Greens)
- Ali Cupper (Labor)
- Peter Crisp (Nationals)
- Doug Tonge (Independent)
- Ross Douglass (Democratic Labor Party)
- Anthony Connell (Independent)
Political situation
Mildura is very hard to predict. With the Coalition performing strongly in Victoria and with Savage out of the picture, you’d have to say that Crisp is the favourite to win the seat. Having said that, independent Mayor of Mildura Glenn Milne is running in an attempt to win the seat, and he recently had his campaign launched by federal independent MP Bob Katter.
2006 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Crisp | NAT | 12,808 | 40.23 | +15.07 |
| Russell Savage | IND | 10,822 | 33.99 | -17.69 |
| Gavin Sedgmen | LIB | 3,686 | 11.58 | +1.33 |
| Alison Smith | ALP | 2,120 | 6.66 | -2.85 |
| Tim Middleton | FF | 1,140 | 3.58 | +3.58 |
| Bruce Rivendell | GRN | 678 | 2.13 | +0.39 |
| Chris Katis | IND | 585 | 1.84 | +1.84 |
2006 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Crisp | NAT | 17,854 | 56.08 | |
| Russell Savage | IND | 13,985 | 43.92 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mildura have been divided into three areas. Those booths in the Mildura urban area have been grouped together, while the remainder of the seat has been divided into “north” and “south”. Over 80% of ordinary votes were cast in Mildura urban booths.
The Nationals polled around 55-56% in the south of the seat and in Mildura itself, while the majority in the remainder of the north was higher, just under 66%.
| Voter group | NAT 2CP% | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mildura | 56.52 | 20,445 | 64.18 |
| South | 55.87 | 2,418 | 7.59 |
| North | 65.76 | 1,904 | 5.98 |
| Other votes | 51.02 | 7,091 | 22.26 |
Can someone who knows more about Victoria explain to me why Mildura and Shepparton rack up large Coalition majorities, whilst Ballarat/Bendigo only go Liberal when they have a decent-size majority in government?
Ballarat Bendigo are old goldfields towns little Melbournes Mildura etc are country towns whose political tone is set by their surrounds. Agriculture is not economically important in central Victoria but it is near the Murray this is the real countryside.
While I did ask for this to be put up, I haven’t heard enough news to indicate that Crisp will lose this, so unfortantly I have to say NAT hold
The results here were pretty interesting. There were two main independents… Doug Tonge did quite well, getting 14.4% compared to 16.0% for Glenn Milne and 15.2% for Labor.) Milne topped 20% at Cullulleraine, on the Sturt Highway 50 km west of Mildura, and at four booths just south of Mildura (best result: 27.1% at Red Cliffs). Tonge did best at Mildura West with 21.4%; he outpolled Milne in the six Mildura booths. Combined, they got over 30% in numerous booths, the highest being 39.9% in Sunnycliffs and 38.7% in Red Cliffs. Meanwhile, they got low results in a pile of little towns, where the Nationals got around 70% and nobody else got double figures. The Greens only got over 3% in four small booths, and Labor’s best was 18.7% at Mildura Deakin.
I told ABC Mildura before the election that the Nats would make up ground in the rural booths but they were rather Mildura fixated.