Macedon – Victoria 2010

ALP 8.2%

Incumbent MP
Joanne Duncan, since 2002. Previously Member for Gisborne 1999-2002.

Geography
Northern fringe of Melbourne. Macedon covers parts of the Hume and Macedon Ranges council areas, including the Sunbury area.

History
Macedon was created at the 2002 election, replacing the abolished seat of Gisborne. Gisborne had been held continuously for the Liberal Party from its creation in 1967 until 1999, when the ALP’s Joanne Duncan gained the seat with a 9.4% swing.

Gisborne was abolished in 2002, and the newly created seat of Macedon had a notional margin of 0.4% for the Liberal Party. Duncan gained yet another 9.6%  swing to win Macedon with a substantial margin. She maintained most of that margin in 2006.

Candidates

• Judith Hungerford (Family First)
• Joanne Duncan (Labor)
• Gavin Greaves (Country Alliance)
• Mahinda Samararatna (Independent)
• Sharon Lane (Democratic Labor Party)
• Nicky Haslinghouse (Greens)
• Lorraine Beyer (Independent)
• Tristan Weston (Liberal)

Political situation
On paper the ALP margin in Macedon is quite substantial, but it has been achieved with two swings of over 9% to the ALP in 1999 and 2002. It suggests that local voters certainly have the potential to swing strongly back from the ALP.

2006 result

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths in Macedon have been divided into three areas. The most populous areas is Sunbury at the southern end of the seat. The sparsely populated north of the seat has been split into east and west. The ALP’s margin was similar in all three areas.

The Greens polled much more strongly in the west than in the rest of the seat. The two independent candidates collectively polled over 20% of the primary vote in Sunbury, but below 3-4% in the other parts of the seat.