Gippsland East – Victoria 2010

IND 8.5%

Incumbent MP
Craig Ingram, since 1999.

Geography
Eastern Victoria. Gippsland East covers East Gippsland Shire and northern parts of Wellington Shire, covering the towns of Bairnsdale, Lakes Entrance, Orbost, Omeo, Maffra and Heyfield.

History
Gippsland East has existed as a single-member district in the Victorian Legislative Assembly continuously since 1889. In over 120 years, the seat has only been held by six members.

The seat was first held by unaligned MP Henry Foster from 1889 to 1902. He served as Mining Minister from 1894 to 1899.

Foster died in 1902, and the by-election was won by James Cameron. He eventually joined the Liberal Party and then the Nationalist Party, and served as a minister from 1909 to 1913.

Cameron was defeated in 1920 by Farmers Union candidate Albert Lind. Lind eventually became a member of the Country Party, and served as a minister in a number of state governments from 1935 to 1952. He served as Deputy Premier from 1937 to 1943.

Lind retired in 1961, and was succeeded by the Country Party’s Bruce Evans. He served as Country Party deputy leader from 1964 to 1970, and retired from Parliament at the 1992 election.

David Treasure of the Nationals won Gippsland East in 1992. He was re-elected in 1996, but in a shock result in 1999 he was defeated by abalone diver Craig Ingram, who was an independent candidate. Ingram came third on primary votes, but overtook the ALP on One Nation preferences, and then won the seat on Labor preferences.

Ingram joined with two other independents in supporting a minority Labor government, sharing this balance of power from 1999 to 2002. Ingram’s primary vote increased from 24% to 41% in 2002, and he won comfortably with an 11.7% margin after preferences. He was re-elected in 2006 with a slightly reduced margin.

Candidates

Political situation
Ingram holds his seat with a solid margin and would only be under threat if there was a very large swing to the Nationals.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Craig Ingram IND 13,344 38.42 -2.91
Peter Bommer LIB 7,566 21.79 +9.10
Chris Nixon NAT 6,530 18.80 -5.14
Zach Smith ALP 4,047 11.65 -3.19
Geoffrey De Jonge GRN 1,709 4.92 +0.36
Dean Beveridge FF 1,137 3.27 +3.27
Clint Eastwood IND 395 1.14 +1.14

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Craig Ingram IND 20,354 58.47 -3.27
Chris Nixon NAT 14,458 41.53 +3.27

The full distribution of preferences was not concluded, so no final two-party-preferred result between Ingram and the Liberal candidate. The above figures are based on election night results between Ingram and the Nationals candidate.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Gippsland East have been divided into three areas: those in Wellington Shire have been grouped as “west”. Booths in East Gippsland Shire have been divided between those in the Lakes area and those in the rest of the Shire, which have been grouped as “east”.

The ALP polled most strongly in the west of the seat, which was also the best area for the Nationals. The Nationals’ weakest area was in the Lakes, where the Liberals polled most strongly. Ingram polled around 40% in the Lakes and the East, and just under 30% in the west.

 

Polling booths in Gippsland East at the 2006 state election. East in yellow, Lakes in green, West in blue.
Voter group ALP % NAT % LIB % IND % Total votes % of votes
Lakes 11.01 14.41 24.39 41.74 15,755 45.26
West 15.69 29.28 16.92 29.94 7,160 20.57
East 8.19 20.90 20.42 39.01 4,793 13.77
Other votes 11.34 16.60 21.82 39.22 7,104 20.41
Two-party-preferred votes (Independent vs National) in Gippsland East at the 2006 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes (Independent vs National) in the Lakes area of Gippsland East at the 2006 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes (Independent vs National) in the southwest of Gippsland East at the 2006 state election.

4 COMMENTS

  1. This one will be interesting … when the floods badly hit East Gippsland in 2007 the Age reported that Craig Ingram stayed on holiday’s in Queensland rather than return to East Gippsland to assist. The previous National member did the same which cost him dearly at the ballot box. Given that the worst affected regions seem to overlap with Craig’s strongest boothes, this one could be a surprise on the night.

  2. The attack ads write themselves Lou…”What did Ingram do to help with the floods? [shot of office door] – ‘gone fishing'”

  3. Agree and the other thing that’s not helping him is that the Mountain Cattlemen have endorsed the National candidate, up to now they had been Craig Ingram’s staunchest supporters.

  4. going to default to general consenus that this will be a NAT GAIN, but we are running on very little infomation, so I have my doubts.

Comments are closed.