Ferntree Gully – Victoria 2010

LIB 0.04%

Incumbent MP
Nick Wakeling, since 2006.

Geography
Outer Eastern Melbourne. Ferntree Gully covers eastern parts of the City of Knox, specifically the suburbs of Ferntree Gully and Mountain Gate and parts of Boronia, Lysterfield and Rowville.

History
Ferntree Gully was created prior to the 2002 election. It was considered to have a 7.6% notional margin for the Liberal Party in 2002, but was won by the ALP’s Anne Eckstein with 2.3% margin.

In 2006, Liberal candidate Nick Wakeling defeated Eckstein by 27 votes, following a recount.

Candidates

Political situation
Ferntree Gully is the most marginal seat in Victoria. It is sure to be a fiercely contested seat, but if the Liberal Party is on an upswing, they will most likely retain the seat.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Nick Wakeling LIB 16,187 44.16 +0.96
Anne Eckstein ALP 15,420 42.07 -5.00
Steve Bullock GRN 2,608 7.11 -0.61
Allister Rouse FF 1,673 4.56 +4.56
Adrian Dowell PP 635 1.73 +1.73
Ross Russell CEC 134 0.37 +0.37

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Nick Wakeling LIB 18,342 50.04 +2.32
Anne Eckstein ALP 18,315 49.96 -2.32

Booth breakdown
Booths in Ferntree Gully have been divided into two areas. The ALP won a 2.9% majority in the north of the seat, while the Liberal Party won a 2.3% majority in the south of the seat and a 1% majority amongst other votes.

 

Polling booths in Ferntree Gully at the 2006 state election. North in blue, South in green.
Voter group LIB 2CP % Total votes % of votes
South 52.27 14,701 40.08
North 47.09 14,500 39.53
Other votes 50.98 7,481 20.39

Due to a recount being conducted, no primary vote booth breakdowns are available.

Two-party-preferred votes in Ferntree Gully at the 2006 state election.

4 COMMENTS

  1. You can clearly see the difference between the older, more socially mixed parts of Knox in the north, and the newer McMansion territory around Rowville in the south.

    The Liberal member for this seat’s predecessor (Knox) was Hurtle Lupton, who apparently had a regular spot on Melbourne talk radio for no other reason than the presenters found “Hurtle” an unusual name.

  3. You can see that with the overlapping federal seat of Aston too; held by Labor until 1990, but they have barely had a look-in since (although 2010 was close, the Libs still held it at what was a high-water mark for Labor).

  4. Candidates in ballot paper order are:

    Martin Leahy – Sex Party
    Alister Rouse – Family First
    Nick Wakeling – Liberal
    Steve Bullock – Greens
    Josh Cullinan – Labor
    Tanya Murphy – DLP

Comments are closed.