ALP 3.7%
Incumbent MP
Bob Stensholt, since 1999.
Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Burwood covers parts of Boroondara, Monash and Whitehorse local government areas. Burwood covers the suburbs of Ashburton, Ashwood and Box Hill South and parts of the suburbs of Burwood, Camberwell, Chadstone, Glen Iris, Hartwell and Surrey Hills.
History
The first electoral district of Burwood was created in 1955. It was held by Liberal MP Jim MacDonald until it was abolished in 1967, when he moved to the recreated seat of Glen Iris, which he held until his retirement in 1976.
The seat of Burwood was restored in 1976, and was won by Jeff Kennett, also of the Liberal Party. Kennett was appointed a minister in 1981, and was elected leader of the Liberal Party after they lost the 1982 state election.
Kennett led the party into the 1985 and 1988 elections, but after losing two elections he was replaced in 1989 by Alan Brown. He returned to the leadership unopposed in 1991 after poor performance by Brown.
Kennett won the 1992 election, and served as Premier for two terms. He won re-election in 1996, but in a shock result in 1999, Kennett lost his majority in the Legislative Assembly, and lost government when independent MPs supported the ALP.
Jeff Kennett resigned as Member for Burwood shortly afterwards, and in the following by-election, ALP candidate Bob Stensholt won the seat with a 10.4% swing. Stensholt increased his margin at the 2002 election, and was re-elected again in 2006.
Candidates
- Emily Kate Cowan (Greens)
- Iming Chan (Family First)
- Lucia de Summa (Democratic Labor Party)
- Graham Watt (Liberal)
- Bob Stensholt (Labor)
- Eamon Cole-Flynn (Sex Party)
Political situation
Burwood was a solidly Liberal seat during the last Liberal government. In the case of a significant swing towards the Liberals in Victoria, Burwood is certainly vulnerable.
2006 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bob Stensholt | ALP | 14,565 | 42.09 | -3.01 |
| Graham Bailey | LIB | 14,272 | 41.24 | +1.19 |
| John Presley | GRN | 4,358 | 12.59 | +1.06 |
| John Canavan | FF | 1,408 | 4.07 | +4.07 |
2006 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bob Stensholt | ALP | 18,594 | 53.74 | -1.35 |
| Graham Bailey | LIB | 16,009 | 46.26 | +1.35 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Burwood have been divided into four areas. Booths in Boroondara have been divided into the Glen Iris-Ashburton area and the Burwood area, and the remainder of the seat has been divided into southeast and northeast areas.
The ALP won a majority in all areas, but it varied between different areas. The ALP won slim margins in the western part of the seat, but won 54% in the northeast, and over 60% in the southeast part of the seat.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Glen Iris-Ashburton | 13.42 | 51.61 | 6,900 | 19.95 |
| South-East | 11.01 | 60.68 | 6,894 | 19.93 |
| Burwood | 12.26 | 50.80 | 6,399 | 18.50 |
| North-East | 13.56 | 54.07 | 5,700 | 16.48 |
| Other votes | 12.80 | 51.82 | 8,691 | 25.13 |
Despite Kennett holding this for two decades, it’s far from a blue-ribbon Liberal seat. It contains some affluent Liberal areas around Glen Iris and Camberwell, but it also contains the old Alamein (66% ALP) and Homesglen/Jordanville (68% ALP) public housing estates. Box Hill in the north-east is also a good Labor area. Kennett’s personal vote probably masked the fact that this is a pretty standard marginal seat containing a bit of everything.
Many commentators overlooked the true nature of the seat and predicted it would just naturally return to the Liberals in 2002 and 2006, but Stensholt held on easily and is apparently a popular local member. I think he might find it very difficult in 2010 though.
Greens are running Emily Kate Cowan. Page to come.
Candidates in ballot paper order are:
Emily Kate Cowan – Greens
Iming Chan – Family First
Lucia De Summa – DLP
Graham Watt – Liberal
Bob Stensholt – Labor
Eamon Cole-Flynn – Sex Party
Out of the 6 candidates, I only know Iming Chan who was my former work colleague and I will be voting for her.
I think the Liberals will win this, although polling is inconsistent, probably because of the diversity in the seat.
LIB GAIN, even thought the swing could be smaller here if the local MP is as hardworking as MDMConnell suggests