Bendigo West – Victoria 2010

ALP 10.6%

Incumbent MP
Bob Cameron, since 1996.

Geography
Northwestern Victoria. Western suburbs of Bendigo and rural areas to the west and south of Bendigo, including Mount Alexander Shire.

History
Bendigo West previously existed as a state electorate from 1904 to 1927. It was restored in 1985, and in that time has been won by the ALP at all but one election.

The restored seat was won in 1985 by the ALP’s David Kennedy. He had previously won the federal seat of Bendigo at a 1969 by-election and was the only federal Labor MP to lose their seat at the 1972 election. He later won the state seat of Bendigo in 1982 and moved to the new seat of Bendigo West in 1985.

Kennedy was defeated in 1992 by the Liberal Party’s Max Turner. Turner held the seat for one term before losing to the ALP’s Bob Cameron in 1996.

Cameron has won re-election in 1999, 2002 and 2006, and served as a minister in the Labor state government from 1999 until last month, when he announced his retirement from politics.

Candidates

Political situation
Bendigo West would only be vulnerable in the case of a Liberal landslide.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bob Cameron ALP 17,120 48.46 -7.97
Bruce McClure LIB 10,310 29.18 +6.14
Sue-Ellen Radford GRN 3,877 10.97 +0.79
Glenn Murrells NAT 2,227 6.30 -4.05
Rachel Harrison FF 1,796 5.08 +5.08

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bob Cameron ALP 21,447 60.56 -5.38
Bruce McClure LIB 13,965 39.44 +5.38

Booth breakdown
Polling booths in Bendigo West have been split into three areas: urban Bendigo has been divided into north and south, while rural parts of the seat have been grouped as “Mount Alexander”, which includes Mount Alexander Shire and the two booths in Loddon Shire.

The ALP polled over 60% in northern Bendigo and in the rural parts of the seat, while polling a lower level in southern Bendigo. The Greens polled much more strongly in the Mount Alexander area than in the remainder of the seat.

 

Polling booths in Bendigo West at the 2006 state election. Bendigo North in yellow, Bendigo South in blue, Mount Alexander in green.

 

Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Mount Alexander 17.48 61.45 9,662 27.28
Bendigo South 6.35 58.73 9,602 27.12
Bendigo North 9.00 62.81 9,067 25.60
Other votes 10.89 58.97 7,081 20.00
Two-party-preferred votes in Bendigo West at the 2006 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the urban part of Bendigo West at the 2006 state election.

5 COMMENTS

  2. Much safer for Labor than Bendigo East, as it contains all the crappy public housing parts of Bendigo north and west of the city centre. Plus as Nick C notes, the rural areas to the south of Bendigo are strong for Labor and the Greens. I’m guessing part of it is the Hepburn Springs overflow, with its alternative/natural health demographic, plus tree-changer types who commute to Bendigo (or even Melbourne..).

  3. Loss of an incumbent member means this margin is now softer than 10% appears. Steven Oliver looks like the sort of bloke who would appeal in a seat like this – probably the smokey of the election.

  4. This count is quite interesting. VEC are doing the 2CP count between Edwards and the Lib when it should be Edwards and the National, Oliver. It seems probable that Oliver would do better on preferences from FF, CA and DLP than the Lib, possibly even Greens, especially in terms of donkey-esque votes since Oliver is above the ALP candidate on the paper.

    If you assume that he gets 90% of Lib, Family First and CDP preferences, 25% Green, 50% CA and 40% DLP (did CA and DLP preference Labor here? I can’t remember), then he ends up on about 47.305%. Then it’s a very marginal 2.7% Labor seat for next time.

  5. Looks like my prediction was right on the money. According to VEC after full distribution of preferences, Oliver (Nat) ended up on 47.07% 2PP.

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