ALP 7.9%
Incumbent MP
Lisa Neville, since 2002.
Geography
Bellarine Peninsula and eastern suburbs of Geelong.
History
Bellarine was first created as an electoral district at the 1967 election. The seat was abolished in 1976, but was restored in 1985. It has alternated between the Labor Party and the Liberal Party.
Bellarine was first won in 1967 by the Liberal Party’s Aurel Smith. He held the seat until its abolition in 1976, when he moved to the neighbouring seat of South Barwon, which he held until his retirement in 1982.
When Bellarine was restored in 1985, it was won by the ALP’s Graham Ernst. He had previously held the seat of Geelong East since 1979, but his original seat was abolished in the 1985 redistribution.
Ernst held Bellarine until his defeat in 1992, when the Liberal Party’s Garry Spry won the seat.
Spry retired in 2002, and his seat was won by the ALP’s Lisa Neville, with a swing of 9.8%. Her 8.3% margin was cut slightly in 2006, and she has served as a minister in the state Labor government since the 2006 election.
Candidates
- Klaus Clapinski (Democratic Labor Party)
- Lara Duff (Family First)
- Lisa Neville (Labor)
- Stephen Juhasz (Independent)
- Judy Baldacchino (Greens)
- Mitch Cherry (Socialist Alliance)
- Kurt Reiter (Liberal)
- Nick McCallum (Country Alliance)
Political situation
Neville has a substantial margin, but Bellarine voters have swung very strongly in the recent past, and if she suffered a large swing she could easily lose this seat.
2006 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Lisa Neville | ALP | 18,014 | 48.49 | -1.26 |
| Don Gibson | LIB | 13,821 | 37.20 | -1.55 |
| Justin Teague | GRN | 3,564 | 9.59 | -1.01 |
| Len Lengyel | FF | 1,751 | 4.71 | +4.71 |
2006 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Lisa Neville | ALP | 21,528 | 57.95 | -0.30 |
| Don Gibson | LIB | 15,622 | 42.05 | +0.30 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Bellarine have been divided into three areas. “West” includes the eastern suburbs of Geelong. “Northeast” includes booths on the north side of the Bellarine Peninsula along Port Phillip Bay. “Southeast” includes booths on the southern side of the Bellarine Peninsula, including Ocean Grove and Queenscliff.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 6.86 | 63.59 | 11,453 | 30.86 |
| Northeast | 8.12 | 55.12 | 9,127 | 24.59 |
| Southeast | 13.84 | 55.16 | 8,298 | 22.36 |
| Other votes | 10.76 | 56.10 | 8,239 | 22.20 |
The eastern suburbs of Geelong around Whittington (‘West’) have always been low-rent areas (quoth a Geelong-based friend “Even the cops are scared of going into Whittington”). The Peninsula itself is a typical coastal profile of retirees and sea change types, plus a rapidly growing number of commuters from Geelong and Melbourne, especially around Leopold and Ocean Grove.
It behaved more like an outer suburban than a rural seat by sticking with Kennett in 1999 then swinging to Labor big time in 2002.
Juhasz is apparently an anti-fluoridation campaigner.
As an Geelong eastern resident I can say the area varies but there a few people in Whittington who cause problems for everybody else. Labor looks to be in trouble in Geelong,if Bellarine is ‘in play’ as the press suggests this points to a swing well above the state average, the South Barwon polls are not that reliable but they tell the same story.
Prediction: ALP hold 2-3%, even thought the regional swing is small, I would think that Neville would attract a backlash over her role in Human Services, but not quite enough to cost her the seat.