Albert Park – Victoria 2010

ALP 9.2%

Incumbent MP
Martin Foley, since 2007.

Geography
Southern Melbourne. Albert Park covers those parts of the City of Melbourne south of the Yarra River, and a majority of the City of Port Phillip. Albert Park covers the suburbs of Albert Park, Middle Park, Port Melbourne and South Melbourne and parts of Elwood and St Kilda.

History
The electoral district of Albert Park has existed since the 1889 election. The seat has been dominated by the ALP for most of the 20th century, who have held the seat continuously since 1950.

The ALP first won the seat in 1902. George Elmslie held the seat until 1918, serving as the first Labor Premier in Victoria for thirteen days in December 1913. The ALP continued to hold the seat except for the 1927-9 period and the period from 1932 to 1945.

In 1945, Albert Park was won by the ALP’s Frank Crean, who lost the seat in 1947 to the Liberal Party’s Roy Schilling. Crean returned to the Victorian parliament at the 1949 Prahran by-election, but moved to federal politics in 1951 and went on to serve as a senior minister in the Whitlam government.

Schilling held the seat for one term, losing to the ALP’s Keith Sutton in 1950. Sutton held the seat until his retirement in 1970.

In 1970, Albert Park was won by the ALP’s Val Doube. He had previously held the seat of Oakleigh from 1950 to 1961, when he was defeated. He held Albert Park from 1970 to 1979.

In 1979, Albert Park was won by the ALP’s Bunna Walsh. He held the seat until the 1992 election, when he attempted to win the overlapping Monash province for the Legislative Council. He had also served as a member for the Legislative Council seat of Melbourne West for two months in 1970 before the election was declared void.

In 1992, John Thwaites, Mayor of South Melbourne, was elected to Albert Park for the ALP. Thwaites became Deputy Leader of the Victorian ALP in 1996. He became Deputy Premier in 1999 following the election of the Bracks government. Thwaites resigned in 2007 following the retirement of Steve Bracks, and by-elections were held in Albert Park and Bracks’ electorate of Williamstown in September 2007.

The 2007 by-election was won by the ALP’s Martin Foley.

Candidates

Political situation
Albert Park is a relatively safe Labor seat. It would require a large swing to the Liberals, or a very large swing to the Greens, to threaten Foley’s hold on the seat.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
John Thwaites ALP 14,787 41.05 -7.11
Clive Smith LIB 12,479 34.64 +1.83
John Middleton GRN 6,871 19.07 +1.75
Stratos Pavlis PP 771 2.14 +2.14
Adrian Jackson IND 458 1.27 +1.27
Sam Robertson FF 390 1.08 +1.08
David Reece CEC 269 0.75 +0.75

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
John Thwaites ALP 21,145 59.22 -3.28
Clive Smith LIB 14,560 40.78 +3.28

2007 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Martin Foley ALP 13,887 46.84 +5.79
John Middleton GRN 8,453 28.52 +9.45
Paul Kavanagh DEM 1,706 5.76 +5.76
Nigel Strauss IND 1,703 5.75 +5.75
Prodos Marinakis IND 1,422 4.80 +4.80
Cameron Eastman FF 1,307 4.41 +3.33
Shane McCarthy DLP 512 1.73 +1.73
Adrian Jackson IND 356 1.20 -0.07
John Dobinson IND 297 1.00 +1.00

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Martin Foley ALP 17,000 57.07
John Middleton GRN 12,788 42.93

Booth breakdown
Albert Park has been divided into two areas: Port Melbourne at the northern end of the seat, and St Kilda at the southern end. The ALP won a 67% majority in St Kilda, and a smaller 58% majority in Port Melbourne. The Greens polled much more strongly in the St Kilda area, with 27%.

At the 2007  by-election, the ALP won 58% in a two-party preferred race against the Greens in Port Melbourne, but only 54% in St Kilda.

 

Polling booths in Albert Park at the 2006 state election. Port Melbourne in green, St Kilda in blue.

2006 election breakdown

Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Port Melbourne 15.06 58.45 17,500 49.01
St Kilda 27.37 67.08 7,746 21.69
Other votes 19.30 54.70 10,459 29.29

2007 by-election breakdown

Voter group ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Port Melbourne 58.77 16,594 56.03
St Kilda 54.45 7,129 23.93
Other votes 55.44 5,970 20.04
Two-party-preferred votes (Labor vs Liberal) in Albert Park at the 2006 state election.
Greens primary votes in Albert Park at the 2006 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes (Labor vs Greens) at the 2007 Albert Park by-election.

11 COMMENTS

  1. Another seat that’s probably trending Liberal/Green, with run-down areas between the city and Port Melbourne being paved over by apartment blocks and expensive new developments. You still see some remnants of the old working-class Port Melbourne (the 75% booth in the far west of the seat), but much of the northern part of the seat is DINK and young professional apartment territory now.

    Should be retained by Labor, but the next redistribution is likely to remove St Kilda, improving Labor vs the Greens but hurting them vs the Liberals.

  2. I believe the 2007 election was the highest vote achieved by the Australian Democrats at any election since 2001, and probably will be their post-2002 record.

  3. In the Age on Saturday the 9th of October there was a table with the 2010 Commonwealth primaries for several inner city seats and the Commonwealth ALP`s 2PP`s margin of 5% for Albert Park. The Albert Park primaries were Greens 23.5%, ALP 40.0% and Liberal 36.5%.

  5. Ben, where did you get the 2007 by-election results from? I thought it was odd that two candidates got an equal number of primary votes (1,702) and have checked the official results from the VEC, and it appears your numbers are all a little out – though it makes no significant difference aside from the Democrat having actually finished third:
    http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/stateby2007resultAlbertParkDistrict.html

    Candidates in ballot paper order are:
    Katie Blakey – Sex Party
    Martin Foley – Labor
    Mark Lopez – Liberal
    Josie Young – Family First
    Serge Thomann –
    Ann Birrell – Greens

  6. Serge Thomann might be a bigger deal than I’d thought. Have a look at this gig:

    http://www.undercover.fm/news/12732-james-freud-sons-to-perform-for-serge-thomann

    It’s $50, but then look at that lineup. Very attractive to music fans who grew up in the 80’s.

    The concert will be held this Wednesday, November 17, at The Palace Theatre in Melbourne.

    The bill includes Dale Ryder, Brett Goldsmith, The Dili All Stars, Glenn Shorrock, Kate Ceberano, Mick Harvey, Normie Rowe, Paul Gray of Wa Wa Nee, Pseudo Echo, Renee Geyer, Ross Wilson, Scott Carne from Kids In The Kitchen, Wilbur Wilde as well as the Freud boys band Attack of the Mannequins.

  7. i went to serge’s concert. i didn’t get a ‘politician’ vibe from him at all. nice dude. had the most non-political chat about music, he even introduced me to the boys from pseudo echo!

    i went to vote yesterday, he’s got prefs from libs (after FF), FF & greens. wilkie only needed something like 21% of primary in denison….

    should be interesting if there’s an inner-city independent in a hung parliament….

  8. Prediction; ALP hold <2%, however I believe that the appearance of Thomann will give the Greens an outside shot, to the point where if Newspoll is right in expecting a 10% Urban swing, the Greens may get in front of the ALP and take the seat. Still unlikely thought

  10. Yeah I saw that, at least it indicates that the main threat is from that pair and not the Liberals, which is one good thing out of this.

  11. Both Thomann and the Greens had their best results in the two St Kilda booths.

    St Kilda South: Greens 23.6%, Thomann 18.5%
    St Kilda Park: Greens 20.2%, Thomann 18.0%

    Thomann’s other booths were all between 6% and 12%. Sandridge sticks out: the best booth for Labor, the worst for both Thomann and the Greens, and one of only two where Labor beat the Libs on primaries. (The other was St Kilda South, by only about 0.5%.)

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