Clark – Tasmania 2024

i know its scheduled for after the election do too how close it is to the election but given the enrolment for clark is under quota and lyons is over transferring the Upper Derwent River region from Lyons to Clark should solve the deviation problem.

sry i meant to say Derwent Valley Council LGA

My current seat. Labor’s vote will rebound now they have Josh Willie on the ticket who I suspect will get a quota in his own right. Easily two seats but not sure about three. Kristie Johnston will probably also get a quota in her own right. Liberals should get two seats but I think three will be a challenge especially with Sue Hickey running again. Greens have selected the Hobart deputy mayor as a second candidate and she’s the most high profile Green from Clark that isn’t a current or past MP. Hickey has a good chance especially as she’s now Glenorchy deputy mayor but could just miss out.

Prediction: either 2 LIB, 2 LAB, 1 GRN, 2 IND (Johnston and Hickey) or 2 LIB, 2 LAB, 2 GRN, 1 IND (Johnston)

The thought of the Liberals and Greens getting the exact same number of seats is odd, but not impossible.

I do realise that there’s a competitive field of independents along with a natural three-way contest. This could squeeze the primary votes from the big three parties. Hobart is small but it has a huge Greens vote for a smallish city and a relatively high Liberal vote for a capital city CBD.

When you consider some past election results, it’s not that unthinkable.

In 2002 the Greens outpolled the Liberals in Denison (22.9% Liberal vs. 24.5% Green) and it was close in 2006 (26.5% vs. 24%) and 2010 (29.8% vs. 24.9%). Just from looking at the primaries of Labor, Liberal and Greens for each of those elections and it looks like 4 Labor, 2 Green, 1 Liberal in 2002, 3 Labor, 2 Liberal and 2 Green in 2006 and 3 Labor, 2 Liberal and 2 Green in 2010. It hasn’t been close at all since the Liberals won government, but now with the possibility that they’ll lose government their primaries could be similar again.

Will wait until nominations have closed before making another prediction but I still expect Hickey to beat the Greens for the final seat.

I think the chocolate fountain will be a vote winner. As someone who has bpnever been to lassie or wanted to I would go. Good tourism boost

Everyone, this isn’t a joke. There will actually be the world’s largest chocolate fountain in Tasmania if the Liberals are re-elected.

Sources: https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/mar/10/australia-news-live-heatwave-bushfires-victoria-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-chris-bowen-fuel-standards https://pulsetasmania.com.au/news/100-million-chocolate-experience-with-worlds-largest-chocolate-fountain-planned-for-hobart/ https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/03/10/worlds-largest-chocolate-fountain-planned-for-tasmania/

How many more valuable Community services are facing the axe and uncertainty if the Liberals win again in 2024?
Programs that support low income earners and people in our communities deemed to experience disadvantage. Are once again at risk while the private enterprises like RACT get the Government nod, that appear to replace pre existing and experienced program services with proven track records? The RACT driver education is said to be aimed only at 16-19 year old’s and what happens to the people over 19 years of age needing that support? If a Peak body advocating for these programs is put at funding risk then those programs reliant on the peak body become more vulnerable than ever!
The community doesn’t need private enterprise made the replacement for any Peak body, as private business has a different agenda to a community based Peak body.
Until the recent lack of action towards us or lack of contact from Labor or follow up to contact emails by any party Anyone of them that stood up for all Tasmanians equally at risk of losing an essential community service provider or at the very least that provider being slashed so hard. That they can barely function and meet funding performance criteria. Is frustrating and to think I would hosted 3 yard signs on the fence, my vote is at stake? How is it that election after election in Tasmania flows like this?
For me the evidence of anyone’s character is based on their past actions. How much more lack of action evidence do Tasmanians need before they decide to make a change in Government
Any Government that promises the same thing year and year election after election as we have seen for the last 10 years is not planning to change that behaviour. The exploding budget for an AFL stadium over essential services and promises of gigantic chocolate fountains is proof enough to finish me! I do not want to hear abut promise after promise like many other Tasmanians I want to see it.

I live in a Council area where I have been forced to live with the actions brought about by 2 independents, On a road and have road frontage that could hold 3 party signs. But as we went into this election the sign I received when I asking for support after contacting the Politicians from 2023, then again weeks prior to the election and again after the election was called means the fence will remain bare.
I wont be advertising anyone now and the vote I felt was assured is not certain any longer.
I am shocked and in disbelief that so many people talk of wasting their votes, not voting and then complaining when the rest of Tasmania finds it’s self governed. By a Government with a proven track record of broken promises, slashed or ceased community program funding? What will it take to evoke action and change in this State. Health services, housing, community programs are hurting and struggling to provide essential services to out community members and instead of getting better. I am watching the exploding stadium budgets while people living at grass roots level cannot meet the basic costs of living due to rapidly exploding CPI and fuel excise costs…. The Government can do something about fuel excise why haven’t they? Many people once invested in voting for the major parties here, are saying they have flipped and will vote independent. So who can win is anyone’s guess now?

This seat is probably the hardest the predict. Labor’s vote cratered at the last election and should pick up, The Greens are in the ball park for a second seat but it remains to be seen if that will transpire. The Libs will probably have a swing against them and I can’t see them winning a third seat. Johnson should be relatively safe and it’s hard to assess how Hickey will go, although she is the deputy mayor of Glenorchy where she polled weakest at the last election.

My prediction is 2 Lib, 2 Labor, 1 Green, Johnson and the last seat between the Greens and Hickey, potentially Labor.

The chocolate fountain thing is a bit of a joke imo and just feels like another announcement/policy they’ve thrown out there in desparation for votes. But anecdotally the reactions seemed to be more mixed so remains to be seen if it’ll be a vote winner or not.

I still stand by my previous prediction of the final seat going to either Sue Hickey or Helen Burnet (Greens). Labor’s primary has ranged from 23 to 29 statewide, with Clark breakdowns having Labor at 30, 29.23 and 24 respectively. I think Labor would need more than 30 to be certain of a third seat. The Greens having chosen Helen Burnet is the best choice and I think their strategy of having both appear on signs together throughout the electorate could work.

My guess of the primaries is roughly 27 Labor, 24 Liberal, 20 Greens, 14 Johnston, 9 Hickey with the remainder going to minor parties and the other independents.

I’ve been seeing a lot of election ads on YouTube. The most common one I’ve seen is the Greens ads, with Labor not far behind. I’ve seen a few Liberal ones, particularly the traffic light coalition ad. I’ve seen candidate ads for Simon Behrakis as well as Labor candidate Stuart Benson.

Could see Benson being Labor’s third highest polling candidate this time.

It’s unfair that the big parties have huge budgets to woo voters. Makes it impossible for decent independents to be heard. There should at least be a cap on advertising budgets.

@Zachary – The thing about the chocolate fountain reminds of the previous NSW election, where Daly and Gladys turned up to an ‘uncommitted voters’ town hall at Penrith. The media class had made the Libs plan to knock down and rebuild the SFS a big issue in the election, so when David Speers asked the audience if they agreed with the rebuild and about 80 of the 100 put their hands up, you could see the look of disbelief on Speers and Daly’s face. I mention this only to point out that sometimes something which seems so obviously a negative amongst those who frequent a blog such as this is can actually be neutral or even a positive amongst the broader community.

Some thoughts on election eve

Liberals: I think they should be safe for two seats. Simon Behrakis will poll the highest of the Liberals now that he’s an incumbent and yet again he is spending a lot. Madeline Ogilvie should be able to win the second seat but Marcus Vermey’s name is eveywhere so he’s a wild card for the second Liberal. Hard to see a path to three seats in Clark.

Labor: Josh Willie should boost the Labor vote and he and Ella Haddad will be elected. A third seems a stretch. If they did get a third I’d expect Simon Davis (2021 state and 2022 federal candidate) or Stuart Benson (seen a few YouTube ads + very prominent in my part of the electorate.

Greens: Having Vica Bayley as a lower profile incumbent compared to Cassy O’Connor + the high profile Helen Burnet will help them get two here. Most signs I’ve seen have had both of them on it which seems like a good strategy. I think they have a good shot at two seats but will have a lot of competition.

Others: Kristie Johnston could get elected on primaries. I don’t see her having an issue. Sue Hickey has a good chance too although I’m not sure if she’ll have a swing against due to not having been an MP for three years. Louise Elliot is high profile but a polarising figure. I’ve seen quite a few of her signs but I only expect her to poll about 1%. Elliot might win over some conservative Liberal voters but the Liberal ticket is conservative anyway.

My prediction is 2-2-1-0-2
less likely
2-2-2-0-1
2-3-1-0-1
3-2-1-0-1

Definitely Liberals 2 and Labor 2 and Greens 1 and Independent 1 – the last seat is a lottery.
This looks like a contest between Labor and Independents and the Greens. I tip the Independents, mainly Johnston and Hickey, to draw votes from the established parties, but I doubt that they’ll both get elected – I see either of them getting in but not both of them. Similarly, despite good support for the Greens, they’ll lose plenty of votes, especially with former leader O’Connor gone. They’ll get either Bayley or Hobart deputy mayor Burnet elected but not both of them. I tip Labor to sneak home here, for a final tally of 3.

I’m shocked that Sue Hickey polled so badly and I wonder if the late announcement really harmed her campaign. I overestimated how well Johnston would do, it does look like she has a lot of soft voters and that could cause her an issue in future election. The Greens strategy here really was brilliant and they didn’t even have that big a swing, just really good second candidate choice and a campaign that took advantage of that. Labor would be happy they’ve made progress on recovering their vote here from the disastrous result in 2021 but they still have a lot of work to do. Also surprised Simon Davis didn’t do as well as expected.